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Hyperbole much? People do take calculated risks with the lives of others - again driving is a dangerous activity, you take the lives of everyone in your car and

Hyperbole much? People do take calculated risks with the lives of others - again driving is a dangerous activity, you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. Even chefs are responsible for not giving people food poisoning. Because of our hyperconnected world, we depend on people taking risks around us constantly. Additionally, NYC had 500 deaths because its approaching its peak - soon most people will recover and be immune to this disease, then its gone forever. But the economic costs - the careers and education opportunities lost to regular people will impact their whole lives.

otterley 7y ago
Are you personally willing to be civilly and criminally liable if you injure someone by transmitting a disease to someone despite the known risk? You have to be so willing when you drive; and you can usually find an insurer to cover your civil liabilities. If you can’t find an insurer to indemnify you if you make someone ill, that should tell you something about the level of harm you could cause someone else.
hazeii 7y ago
Very unlikely NY is anywhere close to herd immunity as the number of those infected is probably well under half the population.
camgunz 7y ago
Yeah, let me rephrase. COVID is the deadliest thing most people will ever have a chance of coming into contact with, you'll spread it to others before you even know you have it, thus it's almost certain you won't be the only one "taking the risk". It's not like driving, flying, takeaway, or any other inane, minimizing comparison. It is a highly infectious, stealthy, lethal pathogen. If we let everyone get it, at even .5% fatality rate, that's millions and millions of people dead just in the US alone. It kills everyone, infants, the elderly, the healthy, the comorbid, just at different rates. Here is what you should do: - shelter in place - if you must go out, wear masks and gloves, stay at least six feet away from others if possible, and wash your hands thoroughly when you return - lots of places need volunteers, please help them if you can and follow their safety protocols - donate money to funds for responders and local business/community relief Here's what you shouldn't do: - flout shelter in place orders - minimize the risk in public forums - engage in armchair epidemiology; this isn't like having an opinion on tabs vs spaces I'm sympathetic to (indeed terrified by) the economic destruction of this, and I know it's happening right now. Let's stay alive and keep each other alive first. We'll figure the rest out later.
- hartator 7y ago
  That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now. Current estimations are 60-70k deaths from it but the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19.
  - camgunz 7y ago
    I think those numbers are way low. Based on demographic numbers: Older than 85: 650k deaths 65-84: 150k 55-65: 400k I don't think everyone will be infected, but lets say it's half. That's 600k. Let's say it's 10%. That's 120k. By any measure, the loss of life is... just breathtaking. But either way, parent was taking about letting everyone get it to build herd immunity, so that's where "everyone gets it" is coming from. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html > the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19 This had been circling the internet a little, but I would caution against extrapolating an uptick in suicides into doubling by the end of the year. There are no doubt consequences to sheltering in place, domestic abuse is a concern as well for example. But this is the best we've got.
  - kelnos 7y ago
    Do you have citations to back up those numbers? I've been looking for things to read that try to quantify the potential harm of shelter-in-place orders, but haven't found much that go anywhere beyond wild guesses.
    - camgunz 7y ago
      Yeah! Well, not the suicides. The stuff I found was like "9 suicides in Tennessee" (which is tragic but not indicative) and a lot of coverage of Trump's lies about it. But COVID-19 I used: https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html and https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... Feel free to check my math, it's late and I did some pretty sketchy rounding.
kelnos 7y ago
> you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. The key point there is that you do that with their consent. Also you are required to be insured to cover you in the case that you screw up and hurt or kill people. Please show me the insurance company that will cover you if you recklessly spread COVID-19 to someone who then dies. I don't consent to you risking my life and the lives of people I care about just because you're getting a little cabin fever. > you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. Says who? The data we have so far does not support (or refute) that. We just do not know yet. > But the economic costs - the careers and education opportunities lost to regular people will impact their whole lives. Yes, that's potentially true. But if you want to be persuasive, you're going to need to quantify that, with error bars and probabilities. We have pretty solid estimates as to how many people are likely to die based on various social distancing, shelter-in-place, full quarantine, etc. scenarios. Those lost lives can't be "fixed" after they're gone. Economic harm can be lessened and even fixed. No, I do not have confidence that everyone will be made whole after this; unfortunately governments and people in general are far from perfect. But that's not an excuse to take other actions that will directly cause deaths.
- TheOtherDave 7y ago
  What about the lives lost to the increased rates of suicide and drug/alcohol abuse that will accompany an economic collapse?
  - camgunz 7y ago
    We have tools to combat an economic collapse. The defense we have against COVID is to shelter in place until we get a huge testing system up and running (which we currently don't have a plan for).

otterley 7y ago

Are you personally willing to be civilly and criminally liable if you injure someone by transmitting a disease to someone despite the known risk? You have to be so willing when you drive; and you can usually find an insurer to cover your civil liabilities. If you can’t find an insurer to indemnify you if you make someone ill, that should tell you something about the level of harm you could cause someone else.

hazeii 7y ago

Very unlikely NY is anywhere close to herd immunity as the number of those infected is probably well under half the population.

camgunz 7y ago

Yeah, let me rephrase. COVID is the deadliest thing most people will ever have a chance of coming into contact with, you'll spread it to others before you even know you have it, thus it's almost certain you won't be the only one "taking the risk". It's not like driving, flying, takeaway, or any other inane, minimizing comparison. It is a highly infectious, stealthy, lethal pathogen. If we let everyone get it, at even .5% fatality rate, that's millions and millions of people dead just in the US alone. It kills everyone, infants, the elderly, the healthy, the comorbid, just at different rates. Here is what you should do: - shelter in place - if you must go out, wear masks and gloves, stay at least six feet away from others if possible, and wash your hands thoroughly when you return - lots of places need volunteers, please help them if you can and follow their safety protocols - donate money to funds for responders and local business/community relief Here's what you shouldn't do: - flout shelter in place orders - minimize the risk in public forums - engage in armchair epidemiology; this isn't like having an opinion on tabs vs spaces I'm sympathetic to (indeed terrified by) the economic destruction of this, and I know it's happening right now. Let's stay alive and keep each other alive first. We'll figure the rest out later.

hartator 7y ago
That’s actually not true. We are talking 0.2-0.3% lethality which is still a lot but it will bellow 250k deaths even if we are back to full normal right now. Current estimations are 60-70k deaths from it but the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19.
- camgunz 7y ago
  I think those numbers are way low. Based on demographic numbers: Older than 85: 650k deaths 65-84: 150k 55-65: 400k I don't think everyone will be infected, but lets say it's half. That's 600k. Let's say it's 10%. That's 120k. By any measure, the loss of life is... just breathtaking. But either way, parent was taking about letting everyone get it to build herd immunity, so that's where "everyone gets it" is coming from. https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html > the doubling of suicides resulting of lockdowns this year to 100k make us more likely to die from suicide than covid-19 This had been circling the internet a little, but I would caution against extrapolating an uptick in suicides into doubling by the end of the year. There are no doubt consequences to sheltering in place, domestic abuse is a concern as well for example. But this is the best we've got.
- kelnos 7y ago
  Do you have citations to back up those numbers? I've been looking for things to read that try to quantify the potential harm of shelter-in-place orders, but haven't found much that go anywhere beyond wild guesses.
  - camgunz 7y ago
    Yeah! Well, not the suicides. The stuff I found was like "9 suicides in Tennessee" (which is tragic but not indicative) and a lot of coverage of Trump's lies about it. But COVID-19 I used: https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html and https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... Feel free to check my math, it's late and I did some pretty sketchy rounding.

kelnos 7y ago

> you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. The key point there is that you do that with their consent. Also you are required to be insured to cover you in the case that you screw up and hurt or kill people. Please show me the insurance company that will cover you if you recklessly spread COVID-19 to someone who then dies. I don't consent to you risking my life and the lives of people I care about just because you're getting a little cabin fever. > you take the lives of everyone in your car and those around you in your hands while driving. Says who? The data we have so far does not support (or refute) that. We just do not know yet. > But the economic costs - the careers and education opportunities lost to regular people will impact their whole lives. Yes, that's potentially true. But if you want to be persuasive, you're going to need to quantify that, with error bars and probabilities. We have pretty solid estimates as to how many people are likely to die based on various social distancing, shelter-in-place, full quarantine, etc. scenarios. Those lost lives can't be "fixed" after they're gone. Economic harm can be lessened and even fixed. No, I do not have confidence that everyone will be made whole after this; unfortunately governments and people in general are far from perfect. But that's not an excuse to take other actions that will directly cause deaths.

TheOtherDave 7y ago
What about the lives lost to the increased rates of suicide and drug/alcohol abuse that will accompany an economic collapse?
- camgunz 7y ago
  We have tools to combat an economic collapse. The defense we have against COVID is to shelter in place until we get a huge testing system up and running (which we currently don't have a plan for).