4 ms·

> "Well, we used to do two, three to four a week," Uh, shit. I expected the rate before COVID to be way less. No wonder COVID is causing so much havoc. COVID h

> "Well, we used to do two, three to four a week," Uh, shit. I expected the rate before COVID to be way less. No wonder COVID is causing so much havoc. COVID has simply been the pin that popped the bubble. 4 startups a week that just this one firm are shutting down due to no revenue or investment? And not just 4 companies closing a week, but 4 that have enough assets that need a law firm to clean up the mess. What a disaster the start-up economy has turned out to be.

throwanem 7y ago
Again.
adventured 7y ago
> What a disaster the start-up economy has turned out to be. It's not going anywhere for very long, if the Fed's rates remain so low and money remains so cheap. Thinking otherwise is nothing more than revenge fantasy style wishful thinking (people lusting for a comeuppance scenario because it makes them feel good). In two years funding will be back in normal swing. In three to four years people will be back to speculating about the sustainability of bubble funding again and getting angry about the so called start-up economy. The giant pile of capital sitting on the sidelines desperate for a return, is still there and will continue to probe for opportunities. It's not going anywhere short of the US collapsing rapidly near-term (which isn't going to happen). What you're going to witness is an immense surge in funding activity about two years out, as an economic recovery gets underway. The only thing that would drain that sideline money, is a true financial collapse, taking down all banks, all short-term treasuries, and the stock market seeing a total wipeout (a minimum of ~%50-65% further down from here). None of that is going to happen. To accomplish that you'd have to hit the Federal Reserve with a nuclear bomb (they're all over the economy now, directly funding it, good luck fighting that) or keep the US economy locked down for years. Check out the Bloomberg billionaire list. You'll notice something interesting. Jeff Bezos, +$28 billion in 2020, $144 billion net worth. Bill Gates, $104 billion. Mark Zuckerberg, $68 billion. Steve Ballmer, $63 billion. Larry Page & Sergey Brin, ~$60 billion. Larry Ellison $60 billion. etc The hyper rich (and the giant corporations in tech) aren't going to drown. The giant tech companies will emerge stronger, and will continue to deploy large sums of money into venture activity and acquisitions. The assets of the hyper rich will continue to be directly propped up by the Fed. It's the very wealthy that fund venture capitalists, providing much of the institutional money that feeds the VC firms. It isn't going anywhere and it will go right back to work, with a short break during this economic disaster. The sole reason there is a break at all, is they're pausing until the dust clears (wait & see, then pounce), they could largely afford to keep funding at close to the same old levels, the money is still there to do it. VC firms get better deals for their institutional investors by waiting until the unicorn blood is saturating the street, this presents an opportunity for them to squeeze the start-up ecosystem and reset valuations lower. Their investment dollars go a lot further if they wait a bit for the lower quality unicorn bodies to pile up.
therealdrag0 7y ago
Isn't that just part of the game? Most businesses fail. Many are just attempts to validate an idea/product. Sometimes it works; sometimes it don't. Trial and error is good.
gentleman11 7y ago
The investment wouldn’t exist if the investors were not making money
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Making money is how the bubble inflates; if investors weren't making money anymore then it would be a popped bubble.
hadlock 7y ago
I would imagine a not insignificant fraction of those startups were between 2 and 5 employees renting the corner of a larger office living off of angel fund money for 9-18 months before evaporating. That's just a guess though.

throwanem 7y ago

Again.

adventured 7y ago

> What a disaster the start-up economy has turned out to be. It's not going anywhere for very long, if the Fed's rates remain so low and money remains so cheap. Thinking otherwise is nothing more than revenge fantasy style wishful thinking (people lusting for a comeuppance scenario because it makes them feel good). In two years funding will be back in normal swing. In three to four years people will be back to speculating about the sustainability of bubble funding again and getting angry about the so called start-up economy. The giant pile of capital sitting on the sidelines desperate for a return, is still there and will continue to probe for opportunities. It's not going anywhere short of the US collapsing rapidly near-term (which isn't going to happen). What you're going to witness is an immense surge in funding activity about two years out, as an economic recovery gets underway. The only thing that would drain that sideline money, is a true financial collapse, taking down all banks, all short-term treasuries, and the stock market seeing a total wipeout (a minimum of ~%50-65% further down from here). None of that is going to happen. To accomplish that you'd have to hit the Federal Reserve with a nuclear bomb (they're all over the economy now, directly funding it, good luck fighting that) or keep the US economy locked down for years. Check out the Bloomberg billionaire list. You'll notice something interesting. Jeff Bezos, +$28 billion in 2020, $144 billion net worth. Bill Gates, $104 billion. Mark Zuckerberg, $68 billion. Steve Ballmer, $63 billion. Larry Page & Sergey Brin, ~$60 billion. Larry Ellison $60 billion. etc The hyper rich (and the giant corporations in tech) aren't going to drown. The giant tech companies will emerge stronger, and will continue to deploy large sums of money into venture activity and acquisitions. The assets of the hyper rich will continue to be directly propped up by the Fed. It's the very wealthy that fund venture capitalists, providing much of the institutional money that feeds the VC firms. It isn't going anywhere and it will go right back to work, with a short break during this economic disaster. The sole reason there is a break at all, is they're pausing until the dust clears (wait & see, then pounce), they could largely afford to keep funding at close to the same old levels, the money is still there to do it. VC firms get better deals for their institutional investors by waiting until the unicorn blood is saturating the street, this presents an opportunity for them to squeeze the start-up ecosystem and reset valuations lower. Their investment dollars go a lot further if they wait a bit for the lower quality unicorn bodies to pile up.

therealdrag0 7y ago

Isn't that just part of the game? Most businesses fail. Many are just attempts to validate an idea/product. Sometimes it works; sometimes it don't. Trial and error is good.

gentleman11 7y ago

The investment wouldn’t exist if the investors were not making money

TeMPOraL 7y ago
Making money is how the bubble inflates; if investors weren't making money anymore then it would be a popped bubble.

hadlock 7y ago

I would imagine a not insignificant fraction of those startups were between 2 and 5 employees renting the corner of a larger office living off of angel fund money for 9-18 months before evaporating. That's just a guess though.