3 ms·

Not for nothing...that paper was later debunked. Fauci was way out over his skis on that one: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asymptomatic

by timr 7y ago

Not for nothing...that paper was later debunked. Fauci was way out over his skis on that one: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asymptomatic-transmission-of-2019-ncov-inaccurate-67060 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asympto... Current thinking is that there's statistical evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission about 2-3 days before symptoms appear: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220300998?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322...

makomk 7y ago
Unfortunately, respectable publications have been pushing that paper recently as proof we knew about asymptomatic transmission back in January for stupid, partisan, political reasons.
- ethbro 7y ago
  It's very easy to forget that current decisions and past decisions operate on vastly different kinds of knowledge. It's easy to look back in time and say "Someone knew the right answer." It's very hard to stand in the present and say "Of the 20 people who each have a different answer they believe is right, I am going to select the really right one." Often, the optimal decision is to hedge and delay until information becomes clearer.
  - timr 7y ago
    Anyone citing that paper recently is being irresponsible. It was debunked about a week after the pre-print went up on the server.
belorn 7y ago
The question then in context become if mask helps during those 2-3 days before symptoms appear. There is a few links above that links to the effectiveness against coughing and sneezing, but I would guess those are symptoms.
- timr 7y ago
  Nobody knows. We know that "real" masks (i.e. n95 or better) are effective when worn properly, but many people don't wear them properly. The evidence for effectiveness of other kinds of masks in the prevention of virus transmission is weak, at best.

by timr 7y ago

makomk 7y ago

Unfortunately, respectable publications have been pushing that paper recently as proof we knew about asymptomatic transmission back in January for stupid, partisan, political reasons.

ethbro 7y ago
It's very easy to forget that current decisions and past decisions operate on vastly different kinds of knowledge. It's easy to look back in time and say "Someone knew the right answer." It's very hard to stand in the present and say "Of the 20 people who each have a different answer they believe is right, I am going to select the really right one." Often, the optimal decision is to hedge and delay until information becomes clearer.
- timr 7y ago
  Anyone citing that paper recently is being irresponsible. It was debunked about a week after the pre-print went up on the server.

belorn 7y ago

The question then in context become if mask helps during those 2-3 days before symptoms appear. There is a few links above that links to the effectiveness against coughing and sneezing, but I would guess those are symptoms.

timr 7y ago
Nobody knows. We know that "real" masks (i.e. n95 or better) are effective when worn properly, but many people don't wear them properly. The evidence for effectiveness of other kinds of masks in the prevention of virus transmission is weak, at best.