4 ms·

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases bal

by colmvp 6y ago

I'm actually slightly worried as Singapore seemed to have handled the crisis quite well with only 1000ish cases for the longest time, but have now had cases balloon from only around 1350 total cases two weeks ago to 6000 today. Certainly, a lot of it has to with migrant workers and their living situations, but it also underscores how even when you have things under control, the virus can spread rapidly when your guard is down.

Aeolun 6y ago
Same thing is true for Japan. Everything seems fine for a while, and suddenly the numbers explode.
- Chunklight 6y ago
  Mysteriously right after the Olympics were postponed.
  - tooltalk 6y ago
    Nobody believed Japan. Trump had to call Abe to consider postponement and Canada was the first country to announce they wouldn't send their athletics to the summer Olympics in Tokyo on March 22.
- yongjik 6y ago
  Couldn't find a better page, but according to a past version of wikipedia table[1], as of Mar 31, Japan had tested 32,497 people. The US had tested 1,108,500; South Korea, 410,564. A lot of people were perplexed by Japan's lack of testing. Seems like Japan's strategy (whatever it was) didn't work out in the end. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19_testing_by_country&oldid=948428786 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19...
  - seunosewa 6y ago
    Under testing always fails. You can’t defeat an invisible enemy.
- seunosewa 6y ago
  The calm before the storm happens in countries that are not testing people adequately. The numbers seem to explode when they really start testing. South Korea is still testing aggressively. Recently they even started re-testing recovered patients. Those who tested positive had their contacts traced and tested too. As long as they remain vigilant, they will not see another big explosion. They seem to have the right attitude. I’m waiting to see if there will be a little outbreak as a result of the elections they held recently.
op03 6y ago
It will be fine as long as the medical system is prepped to handle surge/moving overflow smoothly/pulling in and sharing resources etc. Remember most positives won't require hospitalization (~50% wont even show any symptoms, 40% will have mild symptoms). And compared to few months back readiness/awareness levels at hospitals is much higher.
- ImaCake 6y ago
  > ~50% wont even show any symptoms It is closer to 20% A lot of articles stating more are mis-interpreting those numbers from prospective studies. It is possible that the authors of such studies would downplay false positives as well.
  - mattmanser 6y ago
    I think they don't know yet, even the US were saying it might be 25-50% a couple of days ago. For example the testing of the aircraft carrier, one of the few cases of total population testing, showed 60% asymptomatic cases but had a young population, and it's not clear from the information we've heard publically if some of those will develop symptoms later. So at the moment no-one really knows for certain.
    - Lewton 6y ago
      60% asymptomatic at the time of testing Most of them will eventually begin showing symptoms
  - TrainedMonkey 6y ago
    50% keeps recurring because multiple mass testing efforts found that half of tested people were asymptomatic. However, that is mostly a function of a long incubation period. A significant portion of the infected developed symptoms later.
- Lewton 6y ago
  Iceland did random sampling and while it showed 50% asymptomatic at the time of testing, only 15% ended up not showing symptoms at all
noobermin 6y ago
Tbh, SG should have never let people come particularly from countries with covid outbreaks during March. While spreading across the dorms is a big part of the internal spreading, it's clear the outbreak that started in March were clusters involving people coming to sg from abroad. Almost everyone shut down travel from China (particularly Wuhan) but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake ever. I don't know enough if it was tourists or whether it was returning Singaporeans but they should have instructed them to remain where they were for the sake of the country.
- teruakohatu 6y ago
  > but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake ever The USA did shut their border to a lot of Europe in early March. But at the time the WHO opposed border closure.
  - RobAtticus 6y ago
    Kind of - it closed the borders for Europeans traveling to the US, but did little to manage Americans returning from abroad. Given March is winter in the US (thus less tourism), I would imagine the majority of Europe -> US traffic at the time is Americans returning home, that's a rather weak closure.
    - SpelingBeeChamp 6y ago
      What countries refused re-entry to their own citizens?
    - hadtodoit 6y ago
      I think you are diminishing the amount of traffic between Europe and US on any given day. Closing the borders to Europe may very well have saved us from catastrophe. Numbers exploded everywhere in March.
    - lurquer 6y ago
      >I would imagine the majority of Europe -> US traffic at the time is Americans returning home, that's a rather weak closure. Over 10 million a year from Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and UK alone. Just tourist visas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States#Visitor_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States#V...
lokedhs 6y ago
Almost all new cases are from clusters in dormitories for migrant workers. They live very close together in those locations, and things will spread very fast. Numbers outside these locations are going down because of the recent "circuit breaker" they introduced a few weeks ago.

by colmvp 6y ago

Aeolun 6y ago

Same thing is true for Japan. Everything seems fine for a while, and suddenly the numbers explode.

Chunklight 6y ago
Mysteriously right after the Olympics were postponed.
- tooltalk 6y ago
  Nobody believed Japan. Trump had to call Abe to consider postponement and Canada was the first country to announce they wouldn't send their athletics to the summer Olympics in Tokyo on March 22.
yongjik 6y ago
Couldn't find a better page, but according to a past version of wikipedia table[1], as of Mar 31, Japan had tested 32,497 people. The US had tested 1,108,500; South Korea, 410,564. A lot of people were perplexed by Japan's lack of testing. Seems like Japan's strategy (whatever it was) didn't work out in the end. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19_testing_by_country&oldid=948428786 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19...
- seunosewa 6y ago
  Under testing always fails. You can’t defeat an invisible enemy.
seunosewa 6y ago
The calm before the storm happens in countries that are not testing people adequately. The numbers seem to explode when they really start testing. South Korea is still testing aggressively. Recently they even started re-testing recovered patients. Those who tested positive had their contacts traced and tested too. As long as they remain vigilant, they will not see another big explosion. They seem to have the right attitude. I’m waiting to see if there will be a little outbreak as a result of the elections they held recently.

op03 6y ago

It will be fine as long as the medical system is prepped to handle surge/moving overflow smoothly/pulling in and sharing resources etc. Remember most positives won't require hospitalization (~50% wont even show any symptoms, 40% will have mild symptoms). And compared to few months back readiness/awareness levels at hospitals is much higher.

ImaCake 6y ago
> ~50% wont even show any symptoms It is closer to 20% A lot of articles stating more are mis-interpreting those numbers from prospective studies. It is possible that the authors of such studies would downplay false positives as well.
- mattmanser 6y ago
  I think they don't know yet, even the US were saying it might be 25-50% a couple of days ago. For example the testing of the aircraft carrier, one of the few cases of total population testing, showed 60% asymptomatic cases but had a young population, and it's not clear from the information we've heard publically if some of those will develop symptoms later. So at the moment no-one really knows for certain.
  - Lewton 6y ago
    60% asymptomatic at the time of testing Most of them will eventually begin showing symptoms
- TrainedMonkey 6y ago
  50% keeps recurring because multiple mass testing efforts found that half of tested people were asymptomatic. However, that is mostly a function of a long incubation period. A significant portion of the infected developed symptoms later.
Lewton 6y ago
Iceland did random sampling and while it showed 50% asymptomatic at the time of testing, only 15% ended up not showing symptoms at all

noobermin 6y ago

Tbh, SG should have never let people come particularly from countries with covid outbreaks during March. While spreading across the dorms is a big part of the internal spreading, it's clear the outbreak that started in March were clusters involving people coming to sg from abroad. Almost everyone shut down travel from China (particularly Wuhan) but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake ever. I don't know enough if it was tourists or whether it was returning Singaporeans but they should have instructed them to remain where they were for the sake of the country.

teruakohatu 6y ago
> but no one shut down travel from Europe during March. Biggest mistake ever The USA did shut their border to a lot of Europe in early March. But at the time the WHO opposed border closure.
- RobAtticus 6y ago
  Kind of - it closed the borders for Europeans traveling to the US, but did little to manage Americans returning from abroad. Given March is winter in the US (thus less tourism), I would imagine the majority of Europe -> US traffic at the time is Americans returning home, that's a rather weak closure.
  - SpelingBeeChamp 6y ago
    What countries refused re-entry to their own citizens?
  - hadtodoit 6y ago
    I think you are diminishing the amount of traffic between Europe and US on any given day. Closing the borders to Europe may very well have saved us from catastrophe. Numbers exploded everywhere in March.
  - lurquer 6y ago
    >I would imagine the majority of Europe -> US traffic at the time is Americans returning home, that's a rather weak closure. Over 10 million a year from Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and UK alone. Just tourist visas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States#Visitor_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_United_States#V...

lokedhs 6y ago

Almost all new cases are from clusters in dormitories for migrant workers. They live very close together in those locations, and things will spread very fast. Numbers outside these locations are going down because of the recent "circuit breaker" they introduced a few weeks ago.