7 ms·

Not looking good. :( I guess I thought a lot more people than that died from car crashes.

arcticbull 7y ago
I wonder if we'll see a big drop in flu deaths as overwhelmingly only the old and sick die of COVID, and those folks are at large risk from the flu also.
- dragonwriter 7y ago
  > I wonder if we'll see a big drop in flu deaths The flu season overlapped with a period that included initial reports and fear of a novel respiratory disease and then historic, mandatory countermeasures (for the vast majority of the population) against communicable respiratory disease; it would be bizarre if there wasn't a big drop in flu deaths.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    I meant in following years, as those who likely would have succumbed to the flu in following years succumb to COVID now. For the current period, there's absolutely no way flu, car and so on deaths don't plunge.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      Even in vulnerable groups, the case fatality rate doesn't seem high enough that it would make a big impact in future statistics for that reason (probably bigger impact through lasting behavioral changes.)
lisper 7y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remains about 3X higher than from dying of a COVID infection. Lifetime risk is a better way of comparing the two because (a) both of them represent lifetime risks and (b) COVID is front-loaded, spreading furiously through the population so your daily risk today is higher than your daily risk of a dying in a car crash, but your lifetime risk remains much lower. It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year. [1] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...
  - lisper 7y ago
    > your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% I'm 55 so I'm pretty sure my risk is higher than that. Also, the covid risk is highly front-loaded. If I'm gong to die from covid, I'm likely to do so now whereas if I'm going to die in a car crash that might happen now or it might happen later. I don't really care about dying per se. Sooner or later it's going to happen. What I care about is dying sooner and more painfully than I have to. Drowning on my own bodily fluids doesn't sound like a pleasant way to go.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      Not really actually! In your age category 50-59 your case fatality rate is 1.3% [1] and given the way it affects the older end of the band more significantly than yourself in the middle of the band, it wouldn't be at all unlikely that your case fatality rate is right around 1%. Further, we have been seeing anywhere from 30-80% of cases are asymptomatic or result in mild flulike symptoms and therefore not accounted for in case fatality rates. Indeed the Gangelt study put the overall infection fatality rate at 0.37% when Germany's case fatality rate is around 2%. It wouldn't surprise me at all if your risk was about 7X lower than the stated 1.3%, as low as 0.25% I also wouldn't be so quick to assume car crashes are a pleasant way to go. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

I wonder if we'll see a big drop in flu deaths as overwhelmingly only the old and sick die of COVID, and those folks are at large risk from the flu also.

dragonwriter 7y ago
> I wonder if we'll see a big drop in flu deaths The flu season overlapped with a period that included initial reports and fear of a novel respiratory disease and then historic, mandatory countermeasures (for the vast majority of the population) against communicable respiratory disease; it would be bizarre if there wasn't a big drop in flu deaths.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  I meant in following years, as those who likely would have succumbed to the flu in following years succumb to COVID now. For the current period, there's absolutely no way flu, car and so on deaths don't plunge.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    Even in vulnerable groups, the case fatality rate doesn't seem high enough that it would make a big impact in future statistics for that reason (probably bigger impact through lasting behavioral changes.)

lisper 7y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.

arcticbull 7y ago
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remains about 3X higher than from dying of a COVID infection. Lifetime risk is a better way of comparing the two because (a) both of them represent lifetime risks and (b) COVID is front-loaded, spreading furiously through the population so your daily risk today is higher than your daily risk of a dying in a car crash, but your lifetime risk remains much lower. It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year. [1] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit...
- lisper 7y ago
  > your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% I'm 55 so I'm pretty sure my risk is higher than that. Also, the covid risk is highly front-loaded. If I'm gong to die from covid, I'm likely to do so now whereas if I'm going to die in a car crash that might happen now or it might happen later. I don't really care about dying per se. Sooner or later it's going to happen. What I care about is dying sooner and more painfully than I have to. Drowning on my own bodily fluids doesn't sound like a pleasant way to go.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Not really actually! In your age category 50-59 your case fatality rate is 1.3% [1] and given the way it affects the older end of the band more significantly than yourself in the middle of the band, it wouldn't be at all unlikely that your case fatality rate is right around 1%. Further, we have been seeing anywhere from 30-80% of cases are asymptomatic or result in mild flulike symptoms and therefore not accounted for in case fatality rates. Indeed the Gangelt study put the overall infection fatality rate at 0.37% when Germany's case fatality rate is around 2%. It wouldn't surprise me at all if your risk was about 7X lower than the stated 1.3%, as low as 0.25% I also wouldn't be so quick to assume car crashes are a pleasant way to go. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...