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This is a stunning difference. In the US we had no excess mortality in March, in fact total deaths from all causes were down year over year. Cases didn’t peak

by rpiguy 7y ago

This is a stunning difference. In the US we had no excess mortality in March, in fact total deaths from all causes were down year over year. Cases didn’t peak in NY until April so we may see some increase after this month. I realize the U.K. locked down later than many countries, but there must be other factors driving mortality as there are other countries that did not lock down and aren’t being ravaged quite the same. What is it? Level of care in the NHS? Higher prevalence of secondary conditions like diabetes? Hygiene? Crowding?

iso1631 7y ago
We didn't really have any excess mortality in March either - total deaths in 4 weeks upto 27th march was 43,406. 5 year average for that 4 week period is 43,700. We're slightly ahead of New York state in covid breakout too (about 4-5 days at the occurrence of both 10th and 100th death) I suspect that the excess numbers are undiagnosed covid cases - especially those dying in care homes. In w/e 3rd april compared with the week before Place | Excess Deaths | Excess covid deaths Home | 1079 | 105 Care Home | 1280 | 175 Hospital | 2779 | 2609 Tests in the UK are almost entirely to people going into hospital. Where are the stats for deaths in New York? UK (Or rather England and Wales, but that's 90% of the population of the UK) are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  The death rate in care homes is already pretty high without covid. Ultimately what we really care about is how many years of life the virus is taking away from us.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    Death rate in care homes is normally 2,400 a week. W/e 3rd of april was 3,769. Same at home. W/e 3rd april had no change in death rates for people upto the age of 45 45-50 was 34% higher 50-65 about 40% higher 65-85 about 50% higher Then drops back down over 85 Based on life expectency from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... at each given age, about 60,000 excess years were removed week ending april 3rd. That's likely twice as much the next week.
    - Markoff 7y ago
      that's not contradicting what the Swede says, the weak will die first, you might as well have lower than average death rate in latter months when ask the weak will die out, we just dunno by how many weeks/months you shortened their life expectancy, it's gonna be hardly years for all these stats we need to wait years and by then nobody will be interested anymore because people will be dealing with ruined economy from hysterical response
- rpiguy 7y ago
  Google has made the statistics query-able. Google “Covid NYC deaths,” etc. and they graph it for you in the search results. We are at about 8800 COVID deaths for all of NYC (this includes the city boroughs) so out of a total population of about 8.5 million. We will have a more accurate population after this year’s census. Public transit appears to be a big spreader with outbreaks tracking closely to subway stops. Unfortunately we keep it going because it is essential some people couldn’t get food without subway access. This is also probably why suburban America has a far lower number of cases, outside of nursing homes. Even in states like NJ all the counties in trouble have rail lines to and from NYC and are densely populated.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    That's not total deaths registered, that's just deaths that are released as covid related. In the UK all deaths must be registered with the date of death. Normally we expect X deaths per week, we're seeing far more excess deaths than covid deaths in homes and care homes. Two possibilities 1) Non covid deaths are happening at home rather than hospital because people aren't being taken to hospital. I'm sure this is happening in some cases (people being frightened of going to hospital when they have tell-tale signs of strokes etc), but if it was happening a lot then non-covid deaths in hospitals would be down. They aren't. 2) Much more likely, people are dying at home/care home frmo covid but it's not being reported on the death certificate because they haven't been tested for covid.
    - rpiguy 7y ago
      Sorry that information used to be available here but is no longer maintained: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/data-sets/vital-statistics-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/data-sets/vital-statistic... I do not think Covid deaths are being under-counted in NYC they recently changed to a very liberal policy for labeling Covid-related deaths. No test is required and all deaths not clearly from another cause are now being counted as Covid. This has conspiracy theorists crying foul, but it’s probably prudent. You piqued my curiosity and this change in death classification added 3500 deaths to the count on top of the 8800 confirmed/tested mortalities that Google publishes, and so far NYC is on track to double their monthly deaths from all causes for the month of April :-(

by rpiguy 7y ago

iso1631 7y ago

We didn't really have any excess mortality in March either - total deaths in 4 weeks upto 27th march was 43,406. 5 year average for that 4 week period is 43,700. We're slightly ahead of New York state in covid breakout too (about 4-5 days at the occurrence of both 10th and 100th death) I suspect that the excess numbers are undiagnosed covid cases - especially those dying in care homes. In w/e 3rd april compared with the week before Place | Excess Deaths | Excess covid deaths Home | 1079 | 105 Care Home | 1280 | 175 Hospital | 2779 | 2609 Tests in the UK are almost entirely to people going into hospital. Where are the stats for deaths in New York? UK (Or rather England and Wales, but that's 90% of the population of the UK) are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
The death rate in care homes is already pretty high without covid. Ultimately what we really care about is how many years of life the virus is taking away from us.
- iso1631 7y ago
  Death rate in care homes is normally 2,400 a week. W/e 3rd of april was 3,769. Same at home. W/e 3rd april had no change in death rates for people upto the age of 45 45-50 was 34% higher 50-65 about 40% higher 65-85 about 50% higher Then drops back down over 85 Based on life expectency from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... at each given age, about 60,000 excess years were removed week ending april 3rd. That's likely twice as much the next week.
  - Markoff 7y ago
    that's not contradicting what the Swede says, the weak will die first, you might as well have lower than average death rate in latter months when ask the weak will die out, we just dunno by how many weeks/months you shortened their life expectancy, it's gonna be hardly years for all these stats we need to wait years and by then nobody will be interested anymore because people will be dealing with ruined economy from hysterical response
rpiguy 7y ago
Google has made the statistics query-able. Google “Covid NYC deaths,” etc. and they graph it for you in the search results. We are at about 8800 COVID deaths for all of NYC (this includes the city boroughs) so out of a total population of about 8.5 million. We will have a more accurate population after this year’s census. Public transit appears to be a big spreader with outbreaks tracking closely to subway stops. Unfortunately we keep it going because it is essential some people couldn’t get food without subway access. This is also probably why suburban America has a far lower number of cases, outside of nursing homes. Even in states like NJ all the counties in trouble have rail lines to and from NYC and are densely populated.
- iso1631 7y ago
  That's not total deaths registered, that's just deaths that are released as covid related. In the UK all deaths must be registered with the date of death. Normally we expect X deaths per week, we're seeing far more excess deaths than covid deaths in homes and care homes. Two possibilities 1) Non covid deaths are happening at home rather than hospital because people aren't being taken to hospital. I'm sure this is happening in some cases (people being frightened of going to hospital when they have tell-tale signs of strokes etc), but if it was happening a lot then non-covid deaths in hospitals would be down. They aren't. 2) Much more likely, people are dying at home/care home frmo covid but it's not being reported on the death certificate because they haven't been tested for covid.
  - rpiguy 7y ago
    Sorry that information used to be available here but is no longer maintained: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/data-sets/vital-statistics-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/data-sets/vital-statistic... I do not think Covid deaths are being under-counted in NYC they recently changed to a very liberal policy for labeling Covid-related deaths. No test is required and all deaths not clearly from another cause are now being counted as Covid. This has conspiracy theorists crying foul, but it’s probably prudent. You piqued my curiosity and this change in death classification added 3500 deaths to the count on top of the 8800 confirmed/tested mortalities that Google publishes, and so far NYC is on track to double their monthly deaths from all causes for the month of April :-(