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In the UK, week ending April 3rd, rather than the expected 10k deaths there were a (preliminary) 16k deaths. 60% above background level Stats for week ending A

In the UK, week ending April 3rd, rather than the expected 10k deaths there were a (preliminary) 16k deaths. 60% above background level Stats for week ending April 10th aren't out yet, however they are alluded to in https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/879714/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_16_2020_report.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... at being over 20k deaths, twice the number. (The week 15 report predicted 5k excess deaths for week ending apr3, more concrete figures had it at 6k. Week 16 predicts about 12k excess deaths for w/e april 10. 60% extra deaths isn't "slightly above background level" If covid is burning itself out then that's great, we'd be looking at a total 100k excess deaths, or 20% above background level for the year. However there is no evidence that we're anywhere near 20% of the country having had it, let alone 70%. Those dying in week ending april 10th will likely have contracted covid before lockdown w/e | reported covid deaths | actual excess deaths w/e mar 27 | 842 | 1.5k w/e apr 3 | 3294 | 6k w/e apr 10 | 5562 | 10-15k w/e apr 17 | 5589 | So we're likely looking at 30k excess deaths in the last month, or about 80%, but that's because we locked down in mid-end march and the number of deaths 3 weeks later hasn't increased at the non-lockdown rate we'd expect. Tobacco kills an average 2k per week in the UK, covid is killing 5 times as many, and that's with all the controls. Cars kill an average 30 per week

rpiguy 7y ago
This is a stunning difference. In the US we had no excess mortality in March, in fact total deaths from all causes were down year over year. Cases didn’t peak in NY until April so we may see some increase after this month. I realize the U.K. locked down later than many countries, but there must be other factors driving mortality as there are other countries that did not lock down and aren’t being ravaged quite the same. What is it? Level of care in the NHS? Higher prevalence of secondary conditions like diabetes? Hygiene? Crowding?
- iso1631 7y ago
  We didn't really have any excess mortality in March either - total deaths in 4 weeks upto 27th march was 43,406. 5 year average for that 4 week period is 43,700. We're slightly ahead of New York state in covid breakout too (about 4-5 days at the occurrence of both 10th and 100th death) I suspect that the excess numbers are undiagnosed covid cases - especially those dying in care homes. In w/e 3rd april compared with the week before Place | Excess Deaths | Excess covid deaths Home | 1079 | 105 Care Home | 1280 | 175 Hospital | 2779 | 2609 Tests in the UK are almost entirely to people going into hospital. Where are the stats for deaths in New York? UK (Or rather England and Wales, but that's 90% of the population of the UK) are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    The death rate in care homes is already pretty high without covid. Ultimately what we really care about is how many years of life the virus is taking away from us.
    - iso1631 7y ago
      Death rate in care homes is normally 2,400 a week. W/e 3rd of april was 3,769. Same at home. W/e 3rd april had no change in death rates for people upto the age of 45 45-50 was 34% higher 50-65 about 40% higher 65-85 about 50% higher Then drops back down over 85 Based on life expectency from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... at each given age, about 60,000 excess years were removed week ending april 3rd. That's likely twice as much the next week.
      - Markoff 7y ago
        that's not contradicting what the Swede says, the weak will die first, you might as well have lower than average death rate in latter months when ask the weak will die out, we just dunno by how many weeks/months you shortened their life expectancy, it's gonna be hardly years for all these stats we need to wait years and by then nobody will be interested anymore because people will be dealing with ruined economy from hysterical response
  - rpiguy 7y ago
    Google has made the statistics query-able. Google “Covid NYC deaths,” etc. and they graph it for you in the search results. We are at about 8800 COVID deaths for all of NYC (this includes the city boroughs) so out of a total population of about 8.5 million. We will have a more accurate population after this year’s census. Public transit appears to be a big spreader with outbreaks tracking closely to subway stops. Unfortunately we keep it going because it is essential some people couldn’t get food without subway access. This is also probably why suburban America has a far lower number of cases, outside of nursing homes. Even in states like NJ all the counties in trouble have rail lines to and from NYC and are densely populated.

rpiguy 7y ago

This is a stunning difference. In the US we had no excess mortality in March, in fact total deaths from all causes were down year over year. Cases didn’t peak in NY until April so we may see some increase after this month. I realize the U.K. locked down later than many countries, but there must be other factors driving mortality as there are other countries that did not lock down and aren’t being ravaged quite the same. What is it? Level of care in the NHS? Higher prevalence of secondary conditions like diabetes? Hygiene? Crowding?

iso1631 7y ago
We didn't really have any excess mortality in March either - total deaths in 4 weeks upto 27th march was 43,406. 5 year average for that 4 week period is 43,700. We're slightly ahead of New York state in covid breakout too (about 4-5 days at the occurrence of both 10th and 100th death) I suspect that the excess numbers are undiagnosed covid cases - especially those dying in care homes. In w/e 3rd april compared with the week before Place | Excess Deaths | Excess covid deaths Home | 1079 | 105 Care Home | 1280 | 175 Hospital | 2779 | 2609 Tests in the UK are almost entirely to people going into hospital. Where are the stats for deaths in New York? UK (Or rather England and Wales, but that's 90% of the population of the UK) are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  The death rate in care homes is already pretty high without covid. Ultimately what we really care about is how many years of life the virus is taking away from us.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    Death rate in care homes is normally 2,400 a week. W/e 3rd of april was 3,769. Same at home. W/e 3rd april had no change in death rates for people upto the age of 45 45-50 was 34% higher 50-65 about 40% higher 65-85 about 50% higher Then drops back down over 85 Based on life expectency from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... at each given age, about 60,000 excess years were removed week ending april 3rd. That's likely twice as much the next week.
    - Markoff 7y ago
      that's not contradicting what the Swede says, the weak will die first, you might as well have lower than average death rate in latter months when ask the weak will die out, we just dunno by how many weeks/months you shortened their life expectancy, it's gonna be hardly years for all these stats we need to wait years and by then nobody will be interested anymore because people will be dealing with ruined economy from hysterical response
- rpiguy 7y ago
  Google has made the statistics query-able. Google “Covid NYC deaths,” etc. and they graph it for you in the search results. We are at about 8800 COVID deaths for all of NYC (this includes the city boroughs) so out of a total population of about 8.5 million. We will have a more accurate population after this year’s census. Public transit appears to be a big spreader with outbreaks tracking closely to subway stops. Unfortunately we keep it going because it is essential some people couldn’t get food without subway access. This is also probably why suburban America has a far lower number of cases, outside of nursing homes. Even in states like NJ all the counties in trouble have rail lines to and from NYC and are densely populated.