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Nate silver is a god. When everyone else was massaging their predictions to get them under 5% for Trump, he stuck to his guns. I have a strong suspicion that if
by danbmil99 7y ago
Nate silver is a god. When everyone else was massaging their predictions to get them under 5% for Trump, he stuck to his guns. I have a strong suspicion that if we could run the counterfactual, 29% would be right on the money.
- disgruntledphd2 7y agoI am honestly more impressed by his original work, building multi-level models for Bush vs Obama. There was a kind of earnestness to his coverage that's been lost (inevitably) since he, and 538, became such a big brand.
- lonelappde 7y ago> I have a strong suspicion that if we could run the counterfactual, 29% would be right on the money. Conditioned on what? How would you model that? Go back and change the weather? Redo polls?