4 ms·

Isn't this the report of the case study that was discussed with much controversy in German media, in particular because the researchers hired a high-profile mar

by timkam 6y ago

Isn't this the report of the case study that was discussed with much controversy in German media, in particular because the researchers hired a high-profile marketing agency for promotion and held a press conference together with the prime minister of the federal state (NRW) before subjecting the findings to the scrutiny of the scientific community? Edit: link to newspaper article (German): https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/heinsberg-studie-coronavirus-1.4876474 https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/heinsberg-studie-coro... Note that Gangelt is a municipality in the Heinsberg district, so the article and the report refer to the same study by different names.

sebslomski 6y ago
Yes, lots of controversy about this study. All in all, it’s not too representative after all because of the outbreak in the festival. There’s currently a similar study going on in Munich, which represents a normal bigger city in Germany, which is expected to give more insights.
- s9w 6y ago
  But the Munich study is still several weeks away. Which is frustrating. If the sky is falling like everyone is saying, intermediate results could be published daily. It's really not a difficult study to take such a test.
- mannykannot 6y ago
  And the issue with the festival outbreak is that it skews the demographic distribution?
luspr 6y ago
However, the "controversy" has been overstated by the German media as well. Drosten, virologist who has been cited as one of the critics, called the Gangelt/Heinsberg study "very solid and robust" just yesterday: https://www.zdf.de/politik/maybrit-illner/christian-drosten-lobt-gangelt-studie-extrem-solide-und-robust-aus-sendung-vom-16-april-2020-100.html https://www.zdf.de/politik/maybrit-illner/christian-drosten-... Particulary, the death rate will be close to the estimate.
- sokols 6y ago
  He also said that "..the data on the German town are definitely not representative for the country". https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1251034050883657729 https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1251034050883657729
  - s9w 6y ago
    The thing is that it's simply not exactly stated what kind of population they tested. Whether they were representative of that town or the German population. Of their sample was actually representative of the German population (which I heavily assume since they talked a lot about that) then the results will be quite robust.
    - pintxo 6y ago
      How would you create a representative sample for the whole population if all your samples are from a sub-population with a known cluster of cases?
      - s9w 6y ago
        The cluster thing is obviously hard to remove. But the population.. that should be very doable. You'll just have to adjust the people you chose according to the general population. Not sure exactly how that goes down in practice. But in the press conference he stressed multiple times how this was representative and was done in cooperation with statisticians etc.
        pintxo 6y ago
        Problem here comes from the question "representative for what"? I can easily see this to be representative for the town in question. But I find it quite obvious that it cannot be representative for the whole country due to the initial difference in exposition.
        6y ago
s9w 6y ago
They weren't hired from what I heard. But rather personal friends.
- jaynetics 6y ago
  Yeah... if you can make Deutsche Glasfaser and Gries Deco Company pay me 30k EUR each, I'm also more than happy to help you as a friend.
odiroot 6y ago
I think it's also political, Charité vs Uni Bonn and NRW vs Berlin. At the same time both Jens Spahn (central government) and Armin Laschet (local government) are front runners for the Chancellor's position.
- JanSt 6y ago
  Spahn dropped out and supports Laschet as front runner
  - tobessebot 6y ago
    For now.
    - odiroot 6y ago
      Yeah, that's my feeling as well.

by timkam 6y ago

sebslomski 6y ago

Yes, lots of controversy about this study. All in all, it’s not too representative after all because of the outbreak in the festival. There’s currently a similar study going on in Munich, which represents a normal bigger city in Germany, which is expected to give more insights.

s9w 6y ago
But the Munich study is still several weeks away. Which is frustrating. If the sky is falling like everyone is saying, intermediate results could be published daily. It's really not a difficult study to take such a test.
mannykannot 6y ago
And the issue with the festival outbreak is that it skews the demographic distribution?

luspr 6y ago

However, the "controversy" has been overstated by the German media as well. Drosten, virologist who has been cited as one of the critics, called the Gangelt/Heinsberg study "very solid and robust" just yesterday: https://www.zdf.de/politik/maybrit-illner/christian-drosten-lobt-gangelt-studie-extrem-solide-und-robust-aus-sendung-vom-16-april-2020-100.html https://www.zdf.de/politik/maybrit-illner/christian-drosten-... Particulary, the death rate will be close to the estimate.

sokols 6y ago
He also said that "..the data on the German town are definitely not representative for the country". https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1251034050883657729 https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1251034050883657729
- s9w 6y ago
  The thing is that it's simply not exactly stated what kind of population they tested. Whether they were representative of that town or the German population. Of their sample was actually representative of the German population (which I heavily assume since they talked a lot about that) then the results will be quite robust.
  - pintxo 6y ago
    How would you create a representative sample for the whole population if all your samples are from a sub-population with a known cluster of cases?
    - s9w 6y ago
      The cluster thing is obviously hard to remove. But the population.. that should be very doable. You'll just have to adjust the people you chose according to the general population. Not sure exactly how that goes down in practice. But in the press conference he stressed multiple times how this was representative and was done in cooperation with statisticians etc.
      - pintxo 6y ago
        Problem here comes from the question "representative for what"? I can easily see this to be representative for the town in question. But I find it quite obvious that it cannot be representative for the whole country due to the initial difference in exposition.
        6y ago

s9w 6y ago

They weren't hired from what I heard. But rather personal friends.

jaynetics 6y ago
Yeah... if you can make Deutsche Glasfaser and Gries Deco Company pay me 30k EUR each, I'm also more than happy to help you as a friend.

odiroot 6y ago

I think it's also political, Charité vs Uni Bonn and NRW vs Berlin. At the same time both Jens Spahn (central government) and Armin Laschet (local government) are front runners for the Chancellor's position.

JanSt 6y ago
Spahn dropped out and supports Laschet as front runner
- tobessebot 6y ago
  For now.
  - odiroot 6y ago
    Yeah, that's my feeling as well.