4 ms·

“It'll all be over by Christmas” (No it won't)

54 points by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

antman 7y ago
A very good approach, need to return to this post in a few months.
barrenko 7y ago
It's insane, but I also see UBI as a possibility.
andrewclunn 7y ago
An opinion piece so laden with political posturing... why is this here?
ceilingcorner 7y ago
I don't know who this author is, but the snarky, irritating writing style makes me not want to read anything he/she has to say.
- barrenko 7y ago
  Should people who write be sheepish and meek? I don't understand the "arrogance" argument.
  - ceilingcorner 7y ago
    I said snarky and irritating, not arrogant. Here are some examples of what I mean: - (I predict the USA will merrily go its own way and faceplant, unless y'all elect a competent next POTUS. Or VPOTUS, insofar as Biden appears to be past it and Pence is incompetent at anything but arse-licking.) - Extra lulz in the UK: the Prime Minister is out of hospital but hasn't been seen since Monday—my guess is he's hors de combat for at least another two weeks. A quarter of the senior ministers of state are rabid objectivists who actively hate the poor and want them to die, and a majority of the cabinet are still going full steam ahead for a no-deal Brexit transition on January 31st, at which point the UK economy shrinks another 8% overnight. Really unnecessary. Maybe there are interesting thoughts in this blog post, but adding stuff like this doesn't lend me to take you seriously.
    - everyone 7y ago
      I find his style of writing quite elegant. He gets his point across, vividly, in a highly terse way. Though I agree this article is BS. Where are your references man? where is your data?
      - ceilingcorner 7y ago
        In no way whatsoever is that writing style elegant, terse, or vivid. It’s an angry puerile rant.
        everyone 7y ago
        ?? Those two things are not mutually exclusive.
    - goatinaboat 7y ago
      A quarter of the senior ministers of state are rabid objectivists who actively hate the poor and want them to die It’s ironic that so many authors who hate Ayn Rand fall into exactly the same trap as her: start with their own politics then attempt to construct a story around it in which it saves the day/country/entire universe.
- gpderetta 7y ago
  Charlie Stross, famed FS author and one of my favourites. He is an ex programmer and also sporadically comments on HackerNews as cstross.
  - lnanek2 7y ago
    I like his fiction, but this rant is really unsupported. I don't like Trump either, but I don't go around saying he'll be impeached a second time. On what counts? The guy seems to just be having fun doom saying with little factual support.
- goatinaboat 7y ago
  He’s on here as cstross :-) He’s written some good books in the past but a lot of his recent stuff has very obviously just been churned out to meet a deadline or contract for x number of books. Seems to be a trend recently, authors have abandoned the classic trilogy for something more open-ended but then run out of steam after book 4 and have nowhere to go. GRRM being the highest profile example but it’s an industry-wide phenomenon.
- shantara 7y ago
  Charles Stross. I like some of his SciFi books, but his blog posts are getting more and more political and ranting. This is far from the first global collapse he predicts. His blogging style combined with outright deleting the comments from people he disagrees with, or those who don't share his political beliefs makes it increasingly less likely I will read his next published book.
agd 7y ago
Not sure why this is upvoted, it looks like a standard internet rant with little factual basis or analysis. No mention of contact tracing, testing, and apps/surveillance as the most likely exit strategy for both US and UK.
- dwd 7y ago
  Australia and New Zealand are well ahead on an exit path and following different strategies (NZ - eradication & Aus some form of containment) so expect the US and UK to be watching closely. The data from the Roosevelt will probably put a damper on the idea of eradication in Australia and testing even 10% of the population in a small time frame is just not possible.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  I've found it full of snark and completely ignoring the fact that aside the vaccines, there's plenty of pharmacological progress going on (again: people seem to forget about the drugs entirely). Also, the more we learn about this disease, the better the clinical management will be. There are better arguments to be had, and the story linked isn't one of them.
  - SiempreViernes 7y ago
    Well, there is a mention of miracle medicine at the end.
- hanoz 7y ago
  Maybe it's being upvoted because it rings true to a lot of people, and raises a prospect not being talked about much elsewhere. Personally I think it glosses over potentially the worst of what's to come: next winter. I don't take much solace in a surveillance state being a way out of this either, besides, what use is contact tracing for those commuting on crowded underground trains every day?
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    It's likely that cloth masks reduce transmission in situations like trains (by stopping infectious people from blowing droplets everywhere). Contact tracing works by pulling sick people out of circulation. So when you stop a sick person from getting on the train, you eliminate the potential infections that would have come with their journey.
rejschaap 7y ago
> not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week I agree $1200 for 10 weeks is a bit low, but $1200 per week is really high and maybe a bit excessive? Can somebody get Andrew Yang back on the case?
- ummwhat 7y ago
  Once you cancel out commuting costs, assume rent/mortgage debts have been erased for the relevant time period, and focus only on food, that $1200 could buy you 8 weeks. It works out to a bit over $20 a day. It wouldnt be comfortable living. In fact it would suck having cereal, pasta, and canned whatever 3 times a day. But you would survive. And if you want comfort you can always dip into your savings. This is all assuming the crisis is managed well enough that it actually ends in 8 weeks. Part of that is communicating the plan so people don't think they are choosing a risk of sickness over certain famine. Someone like Newsom or Cuomo needs to do a presser addressing how they are making sure the lockdown does not ruin you if you're living paycheck to paycheck.
  - danaris 7y ago
    It also assumes that commuting costs and rent are not in the picture, which, for many of those who need it the most, at least one still is. It further assumes that a) enough cereal, pasta, and canned whatever is available to purchase for everyone and b) that everyone is easily able to plan for exactly enough of all of it to get them through. I do not find any of these assumptions to be terribly credible.
Aeolun 7y ago
It will be interesting to see how this goes, but I expect the next waves (if they are there at all), to be a lot longer and spread out.
crispinb 7y ago
> Have I missed anything out? The extreme differences in competencies between nations in dealing with the crisis, with the US near the bottom of the pack. Which brings up the possibility that the US's decline, apparent to much of the world even before the witless 45's comic ascendancy, accelerates apace, with SARS-CoV-2 delivering the coup de grace.
- itronitron 7y ago
  The current scenario in the US shows both the federal government's failure of responsibility and failure of imagination. I don't expect there to be a second shutdown despite the likelihood of a larger second wave. While that will probably result in more deaths sooner I don't think that is something Trump or his supporters care much about.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
cableshaft 7y ago
"It'll be over by Christmas" was a popular prediction when World War I started (some even thought it would be over in days) that was stunningly wrong. While I thought this was about COVID-19 before clicking, I assumed it would use WWI as an example of how experts and those in charge could get predictions of how long something would take really, really wrong, and was kind of disappointed to not see any mention of that in there. https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm
- watwut 7y ago
  Through, at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war. They did not predicted how exactly long and how exactly bad it will be, but they knew it will be long and will not be over by Christmas. (Source: I got this from Pandora’s Box: A History of the First World War book which seems to be praised by historians) "Experts and those in charge" and "public journalists and propaganda" are two distinct categories of people.
  - gullyfur 7y ago
    > at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war Hmm, perhaps this was an unpopular opinion, because the entire German military strategy depended on an extraordinarily fast decisive victory in France [1]. Of course, there were contingencies based on whether Russia was allied with France, or netural. Once the Schlieffen Plan fell apart, then the Germans knew it would be a long two-front war, but they didn't seem to suspect that in the first several weeks, from what I've read Though I'll have to check out the book you mentioned, Pandora's Box. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan
  - cableshaft 7y ago
    I'm sure you're right that there were some that predicted the war would take longer, and I'm no WWI scholar. I had difficulty hunting down exactly who thought it would be over quickly, although from what I remember from watching/reading about the war (for example I know it was talked about in at least one video of The Great War Youtube series), there were military and political leaders (non-German) that did seem to think they could end the war quickly.
LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago
Meanwhile on XK-Masada...

54 points by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

antman 7y ago

A very good approach, need to return to this post in a few months.

barrenko 7y ago

It's insane, but I also see UBI as a possibility.

andrewclunn 7y ago

An opinion piece so laden with political posturing... why is this here?

ceilingcorner 7y ago

I don't know who this author is, but the snarky, irritating writing style makes me not want to read anything he/she has to say.

barrenko 7y ago
Should people who write be sheepish and meek? I don't understand the "arrogance" argument.
- ceilingcorner 7y ago
  I said snarky and irritating, not arrogant. Here are some examples of what I mean: - (I predict the USA will merrily go its own way and faceplant, unless y'all elect a competent next POTUS. Or VPOTUS, insofar as Biden appears to be past it and Pence is incompetent at anything but arse-licking.) - Extra lulz in the UK: the Prime Minister is out of hospital but hasn't been seen since Monday—my guess is he's hors de combat for at least another two weeks. A quarter of the senior ministers of state are rabid objectivists who actively hate the poor and want them to die, and a majority of the cabinet are still going full steam ahead for a no-deal Brexit transition on January 31st, at which point the UK economy shrinks another 8% overnight. Really unnecessary. Maybe there are interesting thoughts in this blog post, but adding stuff like this doesn't lend me to take you seriously.
  - everyone 7y ago
    I find his style of writing quite elegant. He gets his point across, vividly, in a highly terse way. Though I agree this article is BS. Where are your references man? where is your data?
    - ceilingcorner 7y ago
      In no way whatsoever is that writing style elegant, terse, or vivid. It’s an angry puerile rant.
      - everyone 7y ago
        ?? Those two things are not mutually exclusive.
  - goatinaboat 7y ago
    A quarter of the senior ministers of state are rabid objectivists who actively hate the poor and want them to die It’s ironic that so many authors who hate Ayn Rand fall into exactly the same trap as her: start with their own politics then attempt to construct a story around it in which it saves the day/country/entire universe.
gpderetta 7y ago
Charlie Stross, famed FS author and one of my favourites. He is an ex programmer and also sporadically comments on HackerNews as cstross.
- lnanek2 7y ago
  I like his fiction, but this rant is really unsupported. I don't like Trump either, but I don't go around saying he'll be impeached a second time. On what counts? The guy seems to just be having fun doom saying with little factual support.
goatinaboat 7y ago
He’s on here as cstross :-) He’s written some good books in the past but a lot of his recent stuff has very obviously just been churned out to meet a deadline or contract for x number of books. Seems to be a trend recently, authors have abandoned the classic trilogy for something more open-ended but then run out of steam after book 4 and have nowhere to go. GRRM being the highest profile example but it’s an industry-wide phenomenon.
shantara 7y ago
Charles Stross. I like some of his SciFi books, but his blog posts are getting more and more political and ranting. This is far from the first global collapse he predicts. His blogging style combined with outright deleting the comments from people he disagrees with, or those who don't share his political beliefs makes it increasingly less likely I will read his next published book.

agd 7y ago

Not sure why this is upvoted, it looks like a standard internet rant with little factual basis or analysis. No mention of contact tracing, testing, and apps/surveillance as the most likely exit strategy for both US and UK.

dwd 7y ago
Australia and New Zealand are well ahead on an exit path and following different strategies (NZ - eradication & Aus some form of containment) so expect the US and UK to be watching closely. The data from the Roosevelt will probably put a damper on the idea of eradication in Australia and testing even 10% of the population in a small time frame is just not possible.
lbeltrame 7y ago
I've found it full of snark and completely ignoring the fact that aside the vaccines, there's plenty of pharmacological progress going on (again: people seem to forget about the drugs entirely). Also, the more we learn about this disease, the better the clinical management will be. There are better arguments to be had, and the story linked isn't one of them.
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  Well, there is a mention of miracle medicine at the end.
hanoz 7y ago
Maybe it's being upvoted because it rings true to a lot of people, and raises a prospect not being talked about much elsewhere. Personally I think it glosses over potentially the worst of what's to come: next winter. I don't take much solace in a surveillance state being a way out of this either, besides, what use is contact tracing for those commuting on crowded underground trains every day?
- maxerickson 7y ago
  It's likely that cloth masks reduce transmission in situations like trains (by stopping infectious people from blowing droplets everywhere). Contact tracing works by pulling sick people out of circulation. So when you stop a sick person from getting on the train, you eliminate the potential infections that would have come with their journey.

rejschaap 7y ago

> not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week I agree $1200 for 10 weeks is a bit low, but $1200 per week is really high and maybe a bit excessive? Can somebody get Andrew Yang back on the case?

ummwhat 7y ago
Once you cancel out commuting costs, assume rent/mortgage debts have been erased for the relevant time period, and focus only on food, that $1200 could buy you 8 weeks. It works out to a bit over $20 a day. It wouldnt be comfortable living. In fact it would suck having cereal, pasta, and canned whatever 3 times a day. But you would survive. And if you want comfort you can always dip into your savings. This is all assuming the crisis is managed well enough that it actually ends in 8 weeks. Part of that is communicating the plan so people don't think they are choosing a risk of sickness over certain famine. Someone like Newsom or Cuomo needs to do a presser addressing how they are making sure the lockdown does not ruin you if you're living paycheck to paycheck.
- danaris 7y ago
  It also assumes that commuting costs and rent are not in the picture, which, for many of those who need it the most, at least one still is. It further assumes that a) enough cereal, pasta, and canned whatever is available to purchase for everyone and b) that everyone is easily able to plan for exactly enough of all of it to get them through. I do not find any of these assumptions to be terribly credible.

Aeolun 7y ago

It will be interesting to see how this goes, but I expect the next waves (if they are there at all), to be a lot longer and spread out.

crispinb 7y ago

> Have I missed anything out? The extreme differences in competencies between nations in dealing with the crisis, with the US near the bottom of the pack. Which brings up the possibility that the US's decline, apparent to much of the world even before the witless 45's comic ascendancy, accelerates apace, with SARS-CoV-2 delivering the coup de grace.

itronitron 7y ago
The current scenario in the US shows both the federal government's failure of responsibility and failure of imagination. I don't expect there to be a second shutdown despite the likelihood of a larger second wave. While that will probably result in more deaths sooner I don't think that is something Trump or his supporters care much about.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

cableshaft 7y ago

"It'll be over by Christmas" was a popular prediction when World War I started (some even thought it would be over in days) that was stunningly wrong. While I thought this was about COVID-19 before clicking, I assumed it would use WWI as an example of how experts and those in charge could get predictions of how long something would take really, really wrong, and was kind of disappointed to not see any mention of that in there. https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm https://www.historynet.com/over-by-christmas.htm

watwut 7y ago
Through, at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war. They did not predicted how exactly long and how exactly bad it will be, but they knew it will be long and will not be over by Christmas. (Source: I got this from Pandora’s Box: A History of the First World War book which seems to be praised by historians) "Experts and those in charge" and "public journalists and propaganda" are two distinct categories of people.
- gullyfur 7y ago
  > at minimum German military leaders and related politicians did predicted longer war Hmm, perhaps this was an unpopular opinion, because the entire German military strategy depended on an extraordinarily fast decisive victory in France [1]. Of course, there were contingencies based on whether Russia was allied with France, or netural. Once the Schlieffen Plan fell apart, then the Germans knew it would be a long two-front war, but they didn't seem to suspect that in the first several weeks, from what I've read Though I'll have to check out the book you mentioned, Pandora's Box. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan
- cableshaft 7y ago
  I'm sure you're right that there were some that predicted the war would take longer, and I'm no WWI scholar. I had difficulty hunting down exactly who thought it would be over quickly, although from what I remember from watching/reading about the war (for example I know it was talked about in at least one video of The Great War Youtube series), there were military and political leaders (non-German) that did seem to think they could end the war quickly.

LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago

Meanwhile on XK-Masada...