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Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-h

Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...

mchusma 7y ago
I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_C... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
- andyroid 7y ago
  Swede here. Like you say our isolation is pretty much volountary, with only larger groups gathering being banned - though I very much doubt that would happen anyway should it be allowed. Our neighboring countries who opted for total lockdown are slowly starting to open up too. I think the death toll in pretty much any country will be primarily depending on how well you’ve protected your elderly. We’ve done OK but could certainly have done better. Though still very far from the “devastatingly wrong” claim above.
- anon84598 7y ago
  Sweden isn't performing a lot of tests for one: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur...
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    Why do they need to perform a lot of tests if their strategy isn't dependent on testing?
    - ashtonkem 7y ago
      Because if there’s a giant spike of currently asymptomatic carriers, you’d want to know.
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I definitely want to know. But it seems like Swedish public policy is that the current measures are the strictest sustainable ones, so they're going to maintain them until strict measures are no longer needed. It's not clear that early visibility of a spike would change that.
        ashtonkem 7y ago
        Given that mortality rate is closely tied to the availability of ventilators, it would be catastrophically short sighted to not react to a spike with strong, short term measures.
        SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I guess I'm not sure what to say in response to that. Swedish officials simply don't agree that strong short term measures are required to ensure a sufficient number of ventilators.
        CydeWeys 7y ago
        This turns out not to be the case. Ventilators don't actually help much with COVID-19. If you end up severe enough to not be able to breathe on your own you're likely to die, and the ventilator only prolongs it. So running out of ventilators won't actually cause many more deaths. The way to prevent a lot of deaths is simply to prevent people from catching it at all.
- crispinb 7y ago
  It's in the major league of deaths/million pop (along with the UK, US). I have to say, as someone usually loathes my generally scientifically-blinkered federal government (Aus), it's relaxing and pleasant to be able to think quite well of them for once. Australia at this stage seems almost like a case study in how to handle a pandemic like this intelligently. Time will tell, of course.
- LIV2 7y ago
  Not a Swede but an Aussie living in Sweden here Sweden is at 118 deaths per million vs 53 per million in Denmark or 94.5 in the US Australia is at 2.52 per million Sweden has a population of something like 10 million while the greater Sydney area alone has a population of 5.98 million so population density isn't the reason why Sweden has so many more deaths. Voluntary lockdown means that some people still stand too close at the supermarkets, still plenty of people socialising around my area as normal & different companies apparently have different ideas when it comes to work from home policies To be fair many countries are locked down as much as Australia and are also doing worse so I'm not sure what it is that is working so well there. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
- seppin 7y ago
  They aren't testing. I have 3 friends bedridden right now with COVID19 symptoms in Stockholm, all of which were denied a test after they asked for one. They were told to stay home and get over it. Their numbers aren't reflective of reality.
  - mikepurvis 7y ago
    To be fair, that's a lot of places right now. I have a neighbour (Kitchener, Canada) who had all the symptoms and wasn't tested— all they wanted to hear is that her house had an area with a separate bathroom where she'd be able to isolate from the rest of her family. She recovered on her own without medical intervention.
    - seppin 7y ago
      True but I didn't say otherwise. Sweden is failing at the only thing that can begin to mount a successful response to COVID19 which is widespread testing. Same as the US and Canada I suppose.
- marklacey 7y ago
  Sweden has 1/4th the population of California. It looks like the total deaths is around 50% higher than California although of course California might have deaths that should have been attributed to COVID-19 that weren’t. It looks like it was estimated to have arrived in Sweden two days earlier.
  - raincom 7y ago
    Maybe, Swedish towns are denser than California ones.
    - marklacey 7y ago
      The SF Bay Area has a population that is 75% of Sweden’s entire population. SF itself is more densely populated than Sweden’s most densely populated city which appears to be Stockholm (7700/km^2 vs 5000/km^2). Stockholm has a population around 20% larger than SF. According to Wikipedia, California is smaller than Sweden. So there may be some dense pockets in Sweden but it certainly isn’t more densely populated than California and it doesn’t appear that there are large cities that approach the density of NYC/SF.
- quersive 7y ago
  Normalizing daily deaths to population, Sweden is doing worse than California. Both are doing much better that Lombardy or NY. Somewhat encouraging, the # of daily deaths is decreasing across the board. Possibly a mix between [voluntary] lockdown effects and better palliative treatments. https://covid19.quersive.com/chart?c=M&e=SE&e=US-CA&e=US-NY&e=IT-Lombardy&f=SE&s=I&t=D&tb=P&x=D&y=L https://covid19.quersive.com/chart?c=M&e=SE&e=US-CA&e=US-NY&...
icelancer 7y ago
Far too early to say this is "devastatingly wrong." The number under the curve matters more than random spikes (that don't oversaturate the health system, BTW).

mchusma 7y ago

I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_C... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...

andyroid 7y ago
Swede here. Like you say our isolation is pretty much volountary, with only larger groups gathering being banned - though I very much doubt that would happen anyway should it be allowed. Our neighboring countries who opted for total lockdown are slowly starting to open up too. I think the death toll in pretty much any country will be primarily depending on how well you’ve protected your elderly. We’ve done OK but could certainly have done better. Though still very far from the “devastatingly wrong” claim above.
anon84598 7y ago
Sweden isn't performing a lot of tests for one: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur...
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  Why do they need to perform a lot of tests if their strategy isn't dependent on testing?
  - ashtonkem 7y ago
    Because if there’s a giant spike of currently asymptomatic carriers, you’d want to know.
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      I definitely want to know. But it seems like Swedish public policy is that the current measures are the strictest sustainable ones, so they're going to maintain them until strict measures are no longer needed. It's not clear that early visibility of a spike would change that.
      - ashtonkem 7y ago
        Given that mortality rate is closely tied to the availability of ventilators, it would be catastrophically short sighted to not react to a spike with strong, short term measures.
        SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I guess I'm not sure what to say in response to that. Swedish officials simply don't agree that strong short term measures are required to ensure a sufficient number of ventilators.
        CydeWeys 7y ago
        This turns out not to be the case. Ventilators don't actually help much with COVID-19. If you end up severe enough to not be able to breathe on your own you're likely to die, and the ventilator only prolongs it. So running out of ventilators won't actually cause many more deaths. The way to prevent a lot of deaths is simply to prevent people from catching it at all.
crispinb 7y ago
It's in the major league of deaths/million pop (along with the UK, US). I have to say, as someone usually loathes my generally scientifically-blinkered federal government (Aus), it's relaxing and pleasant to be able to think quite well of them for once. Australia at this stage seems almost like a case study in how to handle a pandemic like this intelligently. Time will tell, of course.
LIV2 7y ago
Not a Swede but an Aussie living in Sweden here Sweden is at 118 deaths per million vs 53 per million in Denmark or 94.5 in the US Australia is at 2.52 per million Sweden has a population of something like 10 million while the greater Sydney area alone has a population of 5.98 million so population density isn't the reason why Sweden has so many more deaths. Voluntary lockdown means that some people still stand too close at the supermarkets, still plenty of people socialising around my area as normal & different companies apparently have different ideas when it comes to work from home policies To be fair many countries are locked down as much as Australia and are also doing worse so I'm not sure what it is that is working so well there. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
seppin 7y ago
They aren't testing. I have 3 friends bedridden right now with COVID19 symptoms in Stockholm, all of which were denied a test after they asked for one. They were told to stay home and get over it. Their numbers aren't reflective of reality.
- mikepurvis 7y ago
  To be fair, that's a lot of places right now. I have a neighbour (Kitchener, Canada) who had all the symptoms and wasn't tested— all they wanted to hear is that her house had an area with a separate bathroom where she'd be able to isolate from the rest of her family. She recovered on her own without medical intervention.
  - seppin 7y ago
    True but I didn't say otherwise. Sweden is failing at the only thing that can begin to mount a successful response to COVID19 which is widespread testing. Same as the US and Canada I suppose.
marklacey 7y ago
Sweden has 1/4th the population of California. It looks like the total deaths is around 50% higher than California although of course California might have deaths that should have been attributed to COVID-19 that weren’t. It looks like it was estimated to have arrived in Sweden two days earlier.
- raincom 7y ago
  Maybe, Swedish towns are denser than California ones.
  - marklacey 7y ago
    The SF Bay Area has a population that is 75% of Sweden’s entire population. SF itself is more densely populated than Sweden’s most densely populated city which appears to be Stockholm (7700/km^2 vs 5000/km^2). Stockholm has a population around 20% larger than SF. According to Wikipedia, California is smaller than Sweden. So there may be some dense pockets in Sweden but it certainly isn’t more densely populated than California and it doesn’t appear that there are large cities that approach the density of NYC/SF.
quersive 7y ago
Normalizing daily deaths to population, Sweden is doing worse than California. Both are doing much better that Lombardy or NY. Somewhat encouraging, the # of daily deaths is decreasing across the board. Possibly a mix between [voluntary] lockdown effects and better palliative treatments. https://covid19.quersive.com/chart?c=M&e=SE&e=US-CA&e=US-NY&e=IT-Lombardy&f=SE&s=I&t=D&tb=P&x=D&y=L https://covid19.quersive.com/chart?c=M&e=SE&e=US-CA&e=US-NY&...

icelancer 7y ago

Far too early to say this is "devastatingly wrong." The number under the curve matters more than random spikes (that don't oversaturate the health system, BTW).