4 ms·

Yeah, I think we should be more careful with using the word "asymptomatic" as that is quite different from "presymptomatic". AFAIK COVID seems to have some cas

by Jommi 7y ago

Yeah, I think we should be more careful with using the word "asymptomatic" as that is quite different from "presymptomatic". AFAIK COVID seems to have some case where people are purely "asymptomatic", but with this current hot topic of symptoms or not, lots of articles are writing about presymptomatic people they assume will be asymptomatic. Confusing.

takeda 7y ago
It is, but I don't think the tests are able to tell how long a given person was infected. That two weeks incubation makes a lot of things harder. For example after implementing shelter at home or didn't look like it has much impact, but suddenly after two weeks it became very visible. It makes things scary when we lift stay home, it will take again two weeks, and things can get bad quickly over that time.
- jmckib 7y ago
  We also don't know yet (or at least I don't) how easily asymptomatic people are able to transmit the infection, which is why I'm perplexed by this quote from the article. > “With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” said Rear Admiral Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy.
  - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
    The know that presymtomatic people are highly contagious.
    - jmckib 7y ago
      I don't doubt it, but where did you hear that?
      - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
        The WHO back in February. Maybe the advice has changed...
      - squinteyedrogue 7y ago
        This South Korean COVID expert says people are contagious 2 days before symptoms show. https://youtu.be/QwoNP9QWr4Y?t=97 https://youtu.be/QwoNP9QWr4Y?t=97
        jmckib 7y ago
        He says that they are contagious, but he doesn't say highly contagious (I know you're not the one who made that claim, I just wanted to clarify). I'm not sure if we know yet how contagious people without symptoms are, but it's most likely going to be less than a person with symptoms simply because they're no longer coughing.
    - iso947 7y ago
      WHO disagree with you, so citation needed.
      - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
        Do you mind linking to the WHO source? Last I checked they said presymptomatic people are contagious. It's why track and trace is so important and difficult. People are contagious after 3 days but first show symptoms clustered around 5 days. So we need to contact trace their last week or so. A lot of western governments have been unable to do this so they have decided to hope presymptomatic people are not contagious and just ask symptomatic people to self isolate. Another factor is what is symptomatic. I had a weird tightness in my chest 2 days before my fever and a tickle in my throat 1 day before. Breathing issues started 4 days after fever. I had no clue the tightness was covid...
- zaidf 7y ago
  To be fair, shelter at home not appearing impactful earlier on had as much to do with testing capacity ramping up + delayed results. If you’re massively undertesting, even if new infections are decreasing, you’ll likely see growing rate of confirmed positives as you scale daily tests. Similarly, if the results are taking 5-7 days to return, it is entirely possible for new confirmed positives to skyrocket just as actual new infections are tumbling.
  - lbeltrame 7y ago
    This is what we're seeing in Italy at this point.
saberdancer 7y ago
Another big problem in this type of reporting is that majority of countries no longer test people who have mild symptoms or no symptoms. This means that there is bound to be many "unreported" cases as health authorities will not issue test you as they are overloaded. It's not a big suprise. If you are following news from most countries, once it spread out health authorities stopped testing if you do not have significant symptoms and instead told people to stay home and isolate. I'm very cautious with these type of studies. Lot of them are not clear in regards to how precise the test is, does it catch other coronaviruses as well, whether they did a follow up study to see if people developed symptoms or even how and when they picked their sample. All of these factors could radically impact the results.

by Jommi 7y ago

takeda 7y ago

It is, but I don't think the tests are able to tell how long a given person was infected. That two weeks incubation makes a lot of things harder. For example after implementing shelter at home or didn't look like it has much impact, but suddenly after two weeks it became very visible. It makes things scary when we lift stay home, it will take again two weeks, and things can get bad quickly over that time.

jmckib 7y ago
We also don't know yet (or at least I don't) how easily asymptomatic people are able to transmit the infection, which is why I'm perplexed by this quote from the article. > “With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” said Rear Admiral Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy.
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
  The know that presymtomatic people are highly contagious.
  - jmckib 7y ago
    I don't doubt it, but where did you hear that?
    - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
      The WHO back in February. Maybe the advice has changed...
    - squinteyedrogue 7y ago
      This South Korean COVID expert says people are contagious 2 days before symptoms show. https://youtu.be/QwoNP9QWr4Y?t=97 https://youtu.be/QwoNP9QWr4Y?t=97
      - jmckib 7y ago
        He says that they are contagious, but he doesn't say highly contagious (I know you're not the one who made that claim, I just wanted to clarify). I'm not sure if we know yet how contagious people without symptoms are, but it's most likely going to be less than a person with symptoms simply because they're no longer coughing.
  - iso947 7y ago
    WHO disagree with you, so citation needed.
    - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
      Do you mind linking to the WHO source? Last I checked they said presymptomatic people are contagious. It's why track and trace is so important and difficult. People are contagious after 3 days but first show symptoms clustered around 5 days. So we need to contact trace their last week or so. A lot of western governments have been unable to do this so they have decided to hope presymptomatic people are not contagious and just ask symptomatic people to self isolate. Another factor is what is symptomatic. I had a weird tightness in my chest 2 days before my fever and a tickle in my throat 1 day before. Breathing issues started 4 days after fever. I had no clue the tightness was covid...
zaidf 7y ago
To be fair, shelter at home not appearing impactful earlier on had as much to do with testing capacity ramping up + delayed results. If you’re massively undertesting, even if new infections are decreasing, you’ll likely see growing rate of confirmed positives as you scale daily tests. Similarly, if the results are taking 5-7 days to return, it is entirely possible for new confirmed positives to skyrocket just as actual new infections are tumbling.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  This is what we're seeing in Italy at this point.

saberdancer 7y ago

Another big problem in this type of reporting is that majority of countries no longer test people who have mild symptoms or no symptoms. This means that there is bound to be many "unreported" cases as health authorities will not issue test you as they are overloaded. It's not a big suprise. If you are following news from most countries, once it spread out health authorities stopped testing if you do not have significant symptoms and instead told people to stay home and isolate. I'm very cautious with these type of studies. Lot of them are not clear in regards to how precise the test is, does it catch other coronaviruses as well, whether they did a follow up study to see if people developed symptoms or even how and when they picked their sample. All of these factors could radically impact the results.