9 ms·

I don't see all of the retail jobs coming back. Small stores will go under, maybe even some big chains, and there will be a further shift to online shopping as

I don't see all of the retail jobs coming back. Small stores will go under, maybe even some big chains, and there will be a further shift to online shopping as millions more Americans become accustomed to it.

brenden2 7y ago
Retail has been dying for a while, but that just opens up opportunities elsewhere. It's kind of like the nail salon boom: retail has been dying, but nail salons have been booming (pre-shutdown)[0]. I've been noticing for a while in NYC there's a huge supply glut of ground level retail. Lots of for lease signs in vacant spaces (pre-shutdown). In my apartment building, the ground floor space has been vacant with a for lease sign for 3 years (and I live on 5th Ave in NoMad, which is prime retail). [0]: https://fee.org/articles/the-salon-boom-is-actually-good-for-both-consumers-and-workers/ https://fee.org/articles/the-salon-boom-is-actually-good-for...
- _curious_ 7y ago
  Interesting. Also a noticeable supply prime CRE empty for a long time before CV19 in my neck of the 'prime location' woods. That asset class has been totally inflated beyond bubble in the past 5 years IMO and will never return to the same levels of occupancy (or $/sf rates).
matwood 7y ago
A common theme is that crisis just accelerate what's already happening. Old school retail has been slowly dying for awhile and the death has been accelerated. Things like restaurants have been growing in popularity so when the lockdown ends I expect those to do well again. Even on the personal level, there are more babies born and divorces post crisis. One that I haven't figured out yet is the NFL. I know they have been making record money, but head injuries has slowed down the feed of talent. If sports are canceled until next year, does this accelerate a move to a different nationally popular sport? Unlikely, but something I've been thinking about.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  The only thing I've casually observed is how non-essential professional sports actually are in America. Sure, public sporting events are part of the fabric by now, but just like entertainment and celebrities are low this list of what actually matters when push comes to shove (and is worth paying attention to).
  - matwood 7y ago
    I enjoy playing sports, but watching them is not a requirement for me. But, I have friends who were/are devastated that March Madness didn't happen. And I have an overlapping other set of friends who will feel the same way if college football doesn't start in the fall. Are they essential like food? No, but probably essential like socializing is after awhile.
    - _curious_ 7y ago
      The benefits of /return on playing team sports is probably more essential than is watching others do it.

brenden2 7y ago

Retail has been dying for a while, but that just opens up opportunities elsewhere. It's kind of like the nail salon boom: retail has been dying, but nail salons have been booming (pre-shutdown)[0]. I've been noticing for a while in NYC there's a huge supply glut of ground level retail. Lots of for lease signs in vacant spaces (pre-shutdown). In my apartment building, the ground floor space has been vacant with a for lease sign for 3 years (and I live on 5th Ave in NoMad, which is prime retail). [0]: https://fee.org/articles/the-salon-boom-is-actually-good-for-both-consumers-and-workers/ https://fee.org/articles/the-salon-boom-is-actually-good-for...

_curious_ 7y ago
Interesting. Also a noticeable supply prime CRE empty for a long time before CV19 in my neck of the 'prime location' woods. That asset class has been totally inflated beyond bubble in the past 5 years IMO and will never return to the same levels of occupancy (or $/sf rates).

matwood 7y ago

A common theme is that crisis just accelerate what's already happening. Old school retail has been slowly dying for awhile and the death has been accelerated. Things like restaurants have been growing in popularity so when the lockdown ends I expect those to do well again. Even on the personal level, there are more babies born and divorces post crisis. One that I haven't figured out yet is the NFL. I know they have been making record money, but head injuries has slowed down the feed of talent. If sports are canceled until next year, does this accelerate a move to a different nationally popular sport? Unlikely, but something I've been thinking about.

_curious_ 7y ago
The only thing I've casually observed is how non-essential professional sports actually are in America. Sure, public sporting events are part of the fabric by now, but just like entertainment and celebrities are low this list of what actually matters when push comes to shove (and is worth paying attention to).
- matwood 7y ago
  I enjoy playing sports, but watching them is not a requirement for me. But, I have friends who were/are devastated that March Madness didn't happen. And I have an overlapping other set of friends who will feel the same way if college football doesn't start in the fall. Are they essential like food? No, but probably essential like socializing is after awhile.
  - _curious_ 7y ago
    The benefits of /return on playing team sports is probably more essential than is watching others do it.