11 ms·

The hypothetical V shape recovery that everyone was touting back in March was baseless- it was under the way out of touch assumption that lock downs would last

The hypothetical V shape recovery that everyone was touting back in March was baseless- it was under the way out of touch assumption that lock downs would last only a month and business would be allowed to open as if it were an on/off switch. Basically, it assumed 0 secondary effects to recovery.

mywittyname 7y ago
The fact that most people aren't claiming to be worried about this recession makes me worry.
- ReptileMan 7y ago
  IT-s around me are also pretty secure about their employment chances - so I expect a bloodbath of layoffs there.
  - _curious_ 7y ago
    What is "IT-s"?
    - ReptileMan 7y ago
      People working in IT?
- dsfyu404ed 7y ago
  While it won't magically solve problems people having confidence in a speedy recovery and behaving accordingly is likely going to speed up the recovery. It is certainly not going to slow down recovery. It's like the inverse of getting a recession because people expect a recession and behave accordingly causing a recession.
- imtringued 7y ago
  It's too late to worry.
  - empath75 7y ago
    No there is plenty to worry about still.
zebrafish 7y ago
So maybe taking a look into capital cost of starting up, capital lost in lockdown, and cash flow and/or financing needed to regain that lost capital? Because, to your point, a restaurant can't just rehire all the chefs and cooks and waitstaff and go buy food and pay all of its overhead on day 1 with out some sort of influx of cash and guarantee of cashflow to service debt. And I'm assuming that model scales to larger industries as well.
- treyfitty 7y ago
  I’ve owned a restaurant before so I can speak to this: you’re right about chefs- they’re very hard to find. What I imagine happening in the long run is a lot of restaurants shutting their doors 6-12 months from now. Stimulus and PPP will keep them afloat for a big, but the damage will be done, and chefs (who were way underpaid to begin with) will command slightly higher pay when all these restaurants start hiring again.

mywittyname 7y ago

The fact that most people aren't claiming to be worried about this recession makes me worry.

ReptileMan 7y ago
IT-s around me are also pretty secure about their employment chances - so I expect a bloodbath of layoffs there.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  What is "IT-s"?
  - ReptileMan 7y ago
    People working in IT?
dsfyu404ed 7y ago
While it won't magically solve problems people having confidence in a speedy recovery and behaving accordingly is likely going to speed up the recovery. It is certainly not going to slow down recovery. It's like the inverse of getting a recession because people expect a recession and behave accordingly causing a recession.
imtringued 7y ago
It's too late to worry.
- empath75 7y ago
  No there is plenty to worry about still.

zebrafish 7y ago

So maybe taking a look into capital cost of starting up, capital lost in lockdown, and cash flow and/or financing needed to regain that lost capital? Because, to your point, a restaurant can't just rehire all the chefs and cooks and waitstaff and go buy food and pay all of its overhead on day 1 with out some sort of influx of cash and guarantee of cashflow to service debt. And I'm assuming that model scales to larger industries as well.

treyfitty 7y ago
I’ve owned a restaurant before so I can speak to this: you’re right about chefs- they’re very hard to find. What I imagine happening in the long run is a lot of restaurants shutting their doors 6-12 months from now. Stimulus and PPP will keep them afloat for a big, but the damage will be done, and chefs (who were way underpaid to begin with) will command slightly higher pay when all these restaurants start hiring again.