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22MM total out of 157MM working Americans ~14%. More lost than have been added since 2008. Does anyone have a good idea about the actual prospects of a V shaped

22MM total out of 157MM working Americans ~14%. More lost than have been added since 2008. Does anyone have a good idea about the actual prospects of a V shaped recovery?

cjbenedikt 6y ago
More like an extended W...???
- joyj2nd 6y ago
  More like WWWL ? Dead cat bounce and then stagflation?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - Zenbit_UX 6y ago
    In the year of the rat with venus out of alignment you need to look for a reverse-candlestick formation.
treyfitty 6y ago
The hypothetical V shape recovery that everyone was touting back in March was baseless- it was under the way out of touch assumption that lock downs would last only a month and business would be allowed to open as if it were an on/off switch. Basically, it assumed 0 secondary effects to recovery.
- mywittyname 6y ago
  The fact that most people aren't claiming to be worried about this recession makes me worry.
  - ReptileMan 6y ago
    IT-s around me are also pretty secure about their employment chances - so I expect a bloodbath of layoffs there.
    - _curious_ 6y ago
      What is "IT-s"?
      - ReptileMan 6y ago
        People working in IT?
  - dsfyu404ed 6y ago
    While it won't magically solve problems people having confidence in a speedy recovery and behaving accordingly is likely going to speed up the recovery. It is certainly not going to slow down recovery. It's like the inverse of getting a recession because people expect a recession and behave accordingly causing a recession.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    It's too late to worry.
    - empath75 6y ago
      No there is plenty to worry about still.
- zebrafish 6y ago
  So maybe taking a look into capital cost of starting up, capital lost in lockdown, and cash flow and/or financing needed to regain that lost capital? Because, to your point, a restaurant can't just rehire all the chefs and cooks and waitstaff and go buy food and pay all of its overhead on day 1 with out some sort of influx of cash and guarantee of cashflow to service debt. And I'm assuming that model scales to larger industries as well.
  - treyfitty 6y ago
    I’ve owned a restaurant before so I can speak to this: you’re right about chefs- they’re very hard to find. What I imagine happening in the long run is a lot of restaurants shutting their doors 6-12 months from now. Stimulus and PPP will keep them afloat for a big, but the damage will be done, and chefs (who were way underpaid to begin with) will command slightly higher pay when all these restaurants start hiring again.
dustingetz 6y ago
V-recovery reporting is fully explained by politicians saying what people want to hear
rauhl 6y ago
So there are a few things to think about with respect to the recovery. Disclaimer: I am not an economist. One thing is that to a certain extent an economy is psychological. Yes, certain things are physical realities (such as crop yields) or political realities (e.g. states of war) or legal realities (like regulations against selling homemade beer), but a lot else is purely based on sentiment. And it doesn’t matter how good reality is if people think it’s bad: they won’t act in the market more than they must to survive, and it will actually be a bad market, even if the fundamentals justify a good one — at least for awhile, until enough contrarians seek to take advantage of good prices (a kind of sentiment arbitrage, I suppose). But something I worry about even more is well-intended interventions which make things worse and prolong the poor economy. There’s precedent for this in history: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was intended to alleviate the Great Depression but instead exacerbated it. Specifically, I can think of laws against so-called ‘price-gouging’ (which is a myth: no-one in all of human history has ever paid more for something than he felt it was worth to him at the time he bought it, because whenever anyone feels the all-in price for something is more than the all-in value … he doesn’t buy it): by interfering with the price mechanism which is the fundamental method for economic actors to bid for their needs and desires to be met, it will result in less-efficient allocation of resources (capital and labour) across the entire market. This misinvestment will by definition lead to a poorer economy than would otherwise be the case.
- ip26 6y ago
  ‘price-gouging’ [...] is a myth You're laying on the operating table in the ER with a heart attack. Surgeon says, "OK before we put you under, in compensation I want 70% of your income for the rest of your life, or I'm not doing this. Deal?"
- pixl97 6y ago
  > (which is a myth: no-one in all of human history has ever paid more for something than he felt it was worth to him at the time he bought it, because whenever anyone feels the all-in price for something is more than the all-in value … he doesn’t buy it) Ah, so you believe that medical care should bankrupt an individual every time they use it because it is priceless.
- 6y ago
treis 6y ago
IMHO, that's not how it works. For better or worse companies are reluctant to fire in good times. There's a lot of people employed at jobs that aren't really needed. Things like the project they got hired for was canceled and they were just stuck somewhere. Projects that accomplish their goal still tend to drag on adding inconsequential features. And, of course, there's just the slackers skating by. When an economic crisis comes along they get canned and the business realizes that they weren't actually needed. When the good times come back they don't hire those employees back. They continue operating with a smaller staff and pocket the extra profit.
webbruce 6y ago
Zero. No way such massive companies can swing all of a sudden. - There's not enough tests still - People are scared of doing anything even if stores open up - Most importantly, sales just don't magically appear with the snap of your fingers, takes time to ramp up again - Companies are still heavily on only essential spending, that doesn't change overnight They're talking no public events til 2021 now. I think the realization is that this isn't just a 1-2mo ordeal. It's going to be a 1-2yr shift.
- pixl97 6y ago
  >I think the realization is that this isn't just a 1-2mo ordeal. This is what happens when captains of the industry ignore pretty much any pandemic model that has been release in the last 50 years. Unless everyone catches it instantly and the whole process is over quick (which leads to massive death and long term economic impact), that it always takes a year or two of massive public change and a vaccine to get beyond the pandemic. Essentially the rest of the world has caught up with where the epidemiologists were in January.

22MM total out of 157MM working Americans ~14%. More lost than have been added since 2008. Does anyone have a good idea about the actual prospects of a V shaped recovery?

cjbenedikt 6y ago

More like an extended W...???

joyj2nd 6y ago
More like WWWL ? Dead cat bounce and then stagflation?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- Zenbit_UX 6y ago
  In the year of the rat with venus out of alignment you need to look for a reverse-candlestick formation.

treyfitty 6y ago

The hypothetical V shape recovery that everyone was touting back in March was baseless- it was under the way out of touch assumption that lock downs would last only a month and business would be allowed to open as if it were an on/off switch. Basically, it assumed 0 secondary effects to recovery.

mywittyname 6y ago
The fact that most people aren't claiming to be worried about this recession makes me worry.
- ReptileMan 6y ago
  IT-s around me are also pretty secure about their employment chances - so I expect a bloodbath of layoffs there.
  - _curious_ 6y ago
    What is "IT-s"?
    - ReptileMan 6y ago
      People working in IT?
- dsfyu404ed 6y ago
  While it won't magically solve problems people having confidence in a speedy recovery and behaving accordingly is likely going to speed up the recovery. It is certainly not going to slow down recovery. It's like the inverse of getting a recession because people expect a recession and behave accordingly causing a recession.
- imtringued 6y ago
  It's too late to worry.
  - empath75 6y ago
    No there is plenty to worry about still.
zebrafish 6y ago
So maybe taking a look into capital cost of starting up, capital lost in lockdown, and cash flow and/or financing needed to regain that lost capital? Because, to your point, a restaurant can't just rehire all the chefs and cooks and waitstaff and go buy food and pay all of its overhead on day 1 with out some sort of influx of cash and guarantee of cashflow to service debt. And I'm assuming that model scales to larger industries as well.
- treyfitty 6y ago
  I’ve owned a restaurant before so I can speak to this: you’re right about chefs- they’re very hard to find. What I imagine happening in the long run is a lot of restaurants shutting their doors 6-12 months from now. Stimulus and PPP will keep them afloat for a big, but the damage will be done, and chefs (who were way underpaid to begin with) will command slightly higher pay when all these restaurants start hiring again.

dustingetz 6y ago

V-recovery reporting is fully explained by politicians saying what people want to hear

rauhl 6y ago

So there are a few things to think about with respect to the recovery. Disclaimer: I am not an economist. One thing is that to a certain extent an economy is psychological. Yes, certain things are physical realities (such as crop yields) or political realities (e.g. states of war) or legal realities (like regulations against selling homemade beer), but a lot else is purely based on sentiment. And it doesn’t matter how good reality is if people think it’s bad: they won’t act in the market more than they must to survive, and it will actually be a bad market, even if the fundamentals justify a good one — at least for awhile, until enough contrarians seek to take advantage of good prices (a kind of sentiment arbitrage, I suppose). But something I worry about even more is well-intended interventions which make things worse and prolong the poor economy. There’s precedent for this in history: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was intended to alleviate the Great Depression but instead exacerbated it. Specifically, I can think of laws against so-called ‘price-gouging’ (which is a myth: no-one in all of human history has ever paid more for something than he felt it was worth to him at the time he bought it, because whenever anyone feels the all-in price for something is more than the all-in value … he doesn’t buy it): by interfering with the price mechanism which is the fundamental method for economic actors to bid for their needs and desires to be met, it will result in less-efficient allocation of resources (capital and labour) across the entire market. This misinvestment will by definition lead to a poorer economy than would otherwise be the case.

ip26 6y ago
‘price-gouging’ [...] is a myth You're laying on the operating table in the ER with a heart attack. Surgeon says, "OK before we put you under, in compensation I want 70% of your income for the rest of your life, or I'm not doing this. Deal?"
pixl97 6y ago
> (which is a myth: no-one in all of human history has ever paid more for something than he felt it was worth to him at the time he bought it, because whenever anyone feels the all-in price for something is more than the all-in value … he doesn’t buy it) Ah, so you believe that medical care should bankrupt an individual every time they use it because it is priceless.
6y ago

treis 6y ago

IMHO, that's not how it works. For better or worse companies are reluctant to fire in good times. There's a lot of people employed at jobs that aren't really needed. Things like the project they got hired for was canceled and they were just stuck somewhere. Projects that accomplish their goal still tend to drag on adding inconsequential features. And, of course, there's just the slackers skating by. When an economic crisis comes along they get canned and the business realizes that they weren't actually needed. When the good times come back they don't hire those employees back. They continue operating with a smaller staff and pocket the extra profit.

webbruce 6y ago

Zero. No way such massive companies can swing all of a sudden. - There's not enough tests still - People are scared of doing anything even if stores open up - Most importantly, sales just don't magically appear with the snap of your fingers, takes time to ramp up again - Companies are still heavily on only essential spending, that doesn't change overnight They're talking no public events til 2021 now. I think the realization is that this isn't just a 1-2mo ordeal. It's going to be a 1-2yr shift.

pixl97 6y ago
>I think the realization is that this isn't just a 1-2mo ordeal. This is what happens when captains of the industry ignore pretty much any pandemic model that has been release in the last 50 years. Unless everyone catches it instantly and the whole process is over quick (which leads to massive death and long term economic impact), that it always takes a year or two of massive public change and a vaccine to get beyond the pandemic. Essentially the rest of the world has caught up with where the epidemiologists were in January.