4 ms·

Here in Brazil, for whatever reason, the president has been talking up chloroquine, while Trumps talking point is hydroxychloroquine. I don't know how people w

Here in Brazil, for whatever reason, the president has been talking up chloroquine, while Trumps talking point is hydroxychloroquine. I don't know how people who have no medical training or experience who are actively trying to undermine their advisors with such experience determine which of these medicines they're going to place their bets on, but given the lack of good results in either, it seems like either bet is as bad as the other.

goldcd 6y ago
Like Pepsi and Coke?
- jcrubino 6y ago
  Like Coke and Diet Coke and Coke Zero
merpnderp 6y ago
China had more luck treating COVID with chloroquine phosphate (which is more toxic), but hydrochloroquine sulfate is more available in the US.
- addicted44 6y ago
  COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe, but that was due to the breakdown of the overwhelmed health services). How would one even tell if any of the chloroquinine derivatives have been effective without a systematic study when 96 out of 100 people (at worst) would have recovered anyways? That's another thing that makes the 20 person French study which kicked off all this so much more ridiculous. There was a 44% chance that they would have all recovered without any intervention. But it was probably higher for this group since they did have intervention, and they clearly had a high level of medical assistance.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe, but that was due to the breakdown of the overwhelmed health services). That is mixing up IFR and CFR. We don't have any good way of knowing IFR yet, and it may be quite a while before we can get a good estimate. The denominator in CFR is confirmed cases, so Italy's inflated CFR could be (and probably is) entirely related to the lack of sufficient testing.
    - rurban 6y ago
      Italy has a very high IFR of 1%, the same rate as their every year flu epidemic. Or better very two years. The flu comes every two years. Italy has traditionally the highest flu death rates in the world. This year, with COVID-19, it is still lower than in a bad flu year. When you read 15% this might be the CFR, the case fatality rate. But only about a tenth is getting tested. So it means nothing. You can only look the death numbers, and after it settled down at the excess death rate. From there you get the real IFR. So far we are at an IFR of 0.3 - 0.6. A little bit higher than the flu, but in absolute numbes lower than a bad flu year.
      - rootusrootus 6y ago
        IIRC, Italy had a health care professional study that put their IFR at something around .35% or so. Similar for Germany, and the CDC just did a study of HCP's here and came up with 0.26% IFR (but the sample was 75% women).
    - imustbeevil 6y ago
      The CFR is 21% [0]. We're already assuming the IFR is 10x lower. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
      - shadowprofile77 6y ago
        Please check your calculations more carefully before posting a number. the 21% mortality rate represents a percentage of all closed cases in the worldmeters data, not the sum total of all cases both active and closed either through fatality or recovery. The CFR from worldmeters based on total cases counted so far and total deaths counted so far sits at about 6% (and bear in mind that the total count of cases on the site is far, far off from the probable real number of cases.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
jankassens 6y ago
Experts that say that a solution in form of vaccine is 1 year out don't offer immediate help. If some self-appointed expert claims to have a solution, a politician might take a bet on that solution and either later claim they were first to bet big on the solution or just move on to the next bet or blaming of someone else later.

goldcd 6y ago

Like Pepsi and Coke?

jcrubino 6y ago
Like Coke and Diet Coke and Coke Zero

merpnderp 6y ago

China had more luck treating COVID with chloroquine phosphate (which is more toxic), but hydrochloroquine sulfate is more available in the US.

addicted44 6y ago
COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe, but that was due to the breakdown of the overwhelmed health services). How would one even tell if any of the chloroquinine derivatives have been effective without a systematic study when 96 out of 100 people (at worst) would have recovered anyways? That's another thing that makes the 20 person French study which kicked off all this so much more ridiculous. There was a 44% chance that they would have all recovered without any intervention. But it was probably higher for this group since they did have intervention, and they clearly had a high level of medical assistance.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > COVID-19 kills anywhere between 0.7-4% of the people it infects. (Some countries like Italy saw a much higher mortality rate, nearing 15% in Italy, I believe, but that was due to the breakdown of the overwhelmed health services). That is mixing up IFR and CFR. We don't have any good way of knowing IFR yet, and it may be quite a while before we can get a good estimate. The denominator in CFR is confirmed cases, so Italy's inflated CFR could be (and probably is) entirely related to the lack of sufficient testing.
  - rurban 6y ago
    Italy has a very high IFR of 1%, the same rate as their every year flu epidemic. Or better very two years. The flu comes every two years. Italy has traditionally the highest flu death rates in the world. This year, with COVID-19, it is still lower than in a bad flu year. When you read 15% this might be the CFR, the case fatality rate. But only about a tenth is getting tested. So it means nothing. You can only look the death numbers, and after it settled down at the excess death rate. From there you get the real IFR. So far we are at an IFR of 0.3 - 0.6. A little bit higher than the flu, but in absolute numbes lower than a bad flu year.
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      IIRC, Italy had a health care professional study that put their IFR at something around .35% or so. Similar for Germany, and the CDC just did a study of HCP's here and came up with 0.26% IFR (but the sample was 75% women).
  - imustbeevil 6y ago
    The CFR is 21% [0]. We're already assuming the IFR is 10x lower. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    - shadowprofile77 6y ago
      Please check your calculations more carefully before posting a number. the 21% mortality rate represents a percentage of all closed cases in the worldmeters data, not the sum total of all cases both active and closed either through fatality or recovery. The CFR from worldmeters based on total cases counted so far and total deaths counted so far sits at about 6% (and bear in mind that the total count of cases on the site is far, far off from the probable real number of cases.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

jankassens 6y ago

Experts that say that a solution in form of vaccine is 1 year out don't offer immediate help. If some self-appointed expert claims to have a solution, a politician might take a bet on that solution and either later claim they were first to bet big on the solution or just move on to the next bet or blaming of someone else later.