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The number of cases is just a fantasy in most countries. The death toll is also fake, but it's more difficult to manipulate, so it's a better metric. Just noti
by narag 7y ago
The number of cases is just a fantasy in most countries. The death toll is also fake, but it's more difficult to manipulate, so it's a better metric.
Just notice that it's strange that the same bug causes very different rates cases/deaths in different places.
The best metric is comparing the average of deaths in same dates past year to total deaths now and dividing per million of inhabitants.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoI don't think that's a good metric either. We're in an unprecedented economic and social situation, so why should we expect death rates from previous years to serve as a reasonable baseline today?
- jshevek 7y agoTrue. Examples: Less driving means less vehicular death. We probably have slightly more death due to domestic violence. More or less death from drug overdose. Less contact means less death from the normal flu.
- narag 7y agoI agree, it's not exactly a metric, but a heuristic to put official numbers in perspective. Most of the variations you say are in the direction of lowering normal numbers (not domestic violence, but crimes will be registeres as such) so we have a minimum. If official numbers are much less, it's a clear sign that they're altered. There are several ways deaths are being covered: people dying at home or retirement homes, people with previous diseases, putting immediate cause (like stroke or heart attack) in the report.
- user5994461 7y agoTo be fair, nationwide deaths might be the only correct metric, since it's the only thing that countries care to measure properly and don't attempt to manipulate. The cause of deaths however is another matter.
- robocat 7y agonarag said it is a better metric. It isn’t a perfect metric by any means, but it is one of the only fair metrics you or I could have access to when trying to compare between countries. Most other metrics are deeply flawed for that purpose.