4 ms·

> As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. California has been spared because it's not in the Covid Belt

> As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. California has been spared because it's not in the Covid Belt. That's a term I've come up with to describe the ideal climate that SARS-CoV-2 thrives in. All hard hit regions exist in the Covid climate belt. Not all the least hit areas (eg South Korea) exist outside of the Covid Belt. You can also limit its spread with other aggressive measures. Climate provides a substantial natural impediment, although it doesn't entirely stop the spread either. It's why Texas, New Mexico, Arizona look like they do right now versus Michigan and New York. It's not because Texas has had amazing testing and tracing and quarantine measures. It's why Tehran was hammered by the virus but Baghdad was not. It wasn't luck, it wasn't testing, it wasn't tracing, it wasn't lockdown measures. Baghdad is a hotter climate than Tehran during the December > May time frame. It's why Athens & Greece is largely spared but Milan is not. It's not because Greece implemented South Korea-style measures early on and they have a far better healthcare system than Britain. It's why Southern Italy is not hit like Northern Italy. They have different climates. It's why Madrid is hit so hard but Barcelona and Lisbon are not. They have different climates. It's why NYC is hit hard but San Francisco and Los Angeles and San Diego are not. The entire San Diego County has 53 deaths. It's why Texas is largely spared but Massachusetts and Michigan are not. It's why Detroit was hit but Phoenix was not. It's why Belgium and the Netherlands were hit but Mexico wasn't. It's why Wuhan was hit but Hawaii and Jakarta and Singapore were not. It's why Algiers (7.8m people in their metro, just south of Spain) isn't drowning in Covid cases and hasn't been hit like Madrid. It's also why India and Pakistan have been largely spared bad outbreaks. Defying all predictions thus far to the contrary. It's why Lagos Nigeria isn't being hit hard and the Netherlands and Britain were. It's why Cairo isn't buried in dead bodies right now. The Cairo metro has 20 million people. Check out the temps in Cairo during the Nov > May time frame. Look at the climates. Nearly all of the hardest hit areas exist in a sweet spot on temperature range. Milan: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-italy-milan-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Wuhan: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-china-wuhan-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... NYC: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-new-york-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Tehran: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-iran-tehran-ir-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... London: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-kingdom-london-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Boston: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-boston-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Chicago: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-chicago-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Now compare to Baghdad: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-iraq-baghd-d-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Cairo: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-egypt-cairo-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Los Angeles: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-los-angeles-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Algiers: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-algeria-algiers-dz-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Lagos: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-nigeria-lagos-ng-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Houston: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-houston-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Phoenix: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-phoenix-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Singapore: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-singapore-singapore-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Las Vegas: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-las-vegas-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... San Diego: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-united-states-of-america-san-diego-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Athens: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-greece-athens-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... --- Compare Barcelona: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-spain-barcelona-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... To Madrid: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-spain-madrid-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Compare Milan again:https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-italy-milan-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... To Rome: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-italy-rome-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... See those higher highs through the flu season? That 8-10 degrees of higher temps throughout Winter is the difference. Getting as close to the ~55-60 F or higher temp zone at the highs as possible during Winter is where you want to be. The regions that are, have seen dramatically fewer cases. This spans all variations of circumstances between nations (rich vs poor, good testing vs weak testing etc). At 64 degrees F and above, we know that influenza, for example, is heavily impeded by the heat. This is why so many experts have been predicting a big downturn in the virus as Spring & Summer temperatures roll in. This has already been shown by several studies. We already know why. 90-95% of all cases of transmission have occurred in the Covid Belt areas that have ideal climates for the transmission of the virus (otherwise Africa would be drowning in Covid deaths right now).

Jommi 7y ago
It seems to all fit together but I would not be too hasty in proclaiming the actual heat to be the affecting factor. Colder place will naturally be more densely populated for example.
- adventured 7y ago
  > Colder place will naturally be more densely populated for example. That's plainly wrong. The world has huge numbers of hot, very dense cities that have not been hit hard. The Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, India all have obvious of examples. Mexico City should be in extremely bad shape right now. Check out the temps in Mexico City: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-mexico-mexico-city-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Here are the top 10 most densely populated US metro zones (per the 2010 US census; population per sq mile): Los Angeles, SF + Oakland, San Jose, NYC + NJ + CT (isolated, NYC is the most dense), Las Vegas, Miami, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, New Orleans Also, Riverside CA is #12, Phoenix AZ is #16. Both have been largely spared. Now look at the per capita Covid deaths in LA, the Bay Area, Las Vegas, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Phoenix, Riverside. Then compare it to the Covid Belt areas. If New Orleans hadn't made the mistake of holding Mardi Gras, they would look like other urban areas in Louisiana and the south broadly and would have dramatically fewer cases (eg Mississippi has 1/10th the deaths of Louisiana with 2/3 the population; Florida has over 4x the population of Louisiana, with half the deaths). The Virginia Beach + Norfolk area is #22 on population density. It has so few deaths it barely registers. A couple million people live in that area, there have been only a handful of deaths. Average highs are 61 degrees F in November, around 50 from Dec > Feb, then 58 in March. ~12-15 degrees warmer than NYC throughout Winter. It never sinks into the Covid Belt ideal temperature zone, comparable to Milan, Wuhan, NYC, etc. Check out most of the major cities in Florida. They're doing extremely well. The Jacksonville area has a dozen deaths in a metro of 1.5 million. Tampa and Orlando have done similarly well.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    It's way too early to be making any definitive statements over what area has been hard hit or not. All we know right now is who got hit by it first, not worst.

Jommi 7y ago

It seems to all fit together but I would not be too hasty in proclaiming the actual heat to be the affecting factor. Colder place will naturally be more densely populated for example.

adventured 7y ago
> Colder place will naturally be more densely populated for example. That's plainly wrong. The world has huge numbers of hot, very dense cities that have not been hit hard. The Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, India all have obvious of examples. Mexico City should be in extremely bad shape right now. Check out the temps in Mexico City: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-mexico-mexico-city-fahrenheit.png https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-... Here are the top 10 most densely populated US metro zones (per the 2010 US census; population per sq mile): Los Angeles, SF + Oakland, San Jose, NYC + NJ + CT (isolated, NYC is the most dense), Las Vegas, Miami, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, New Orleans Also, Riverside CA is #12, Phoenix AZ is #16. Both have been largely spared. Now look at the per capita Covid deaths in LA, the Bay Area, Las Vegas, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Phoenix, Riverside. Then compare it to the Covid Belt areas. If New Orleans hadn't made the mistake of holding Mardi Gras, they would look like other urban areas in Louisiana and the south broadly and would have dramatically fewer cases (eg Mississippi has 1/10th the deaths of Louisiana with 2/3 the population; Florida has over 4x the population of Louisiana, with half the deaths). The Virginia Beach + Norfolk area is #22 on population density. It has so few deaths it barely registers. A couple million people live in that area, there have been only a handful of deaths. Average highs are 61 degrees F in November, around 50 from Dec > Feb, then 58 in March. ~12-15 degrees warmer than NYC throughout Winter. It never sinks into the Covid Belt ideal temperature zone, comparable to Milan, Wuhan, NYC, etc. Check out most of the major cities in Florida. They're doing extremely well. The Jacksonville area has a dozen deaths in a metro of 1.5 million. Tampa and Orlando have done similarly well.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  It's way too early to be making any definitive statements over what area has been hard hit or not. All we know right now is who got hit by it first, not worst.