4 ms·
The light blue curve, labeled "With Intervention", is an upward-facing concave curve. Even if it were linear, it does not align with the observed data reference
by mikekij 7y ago
The light blue curve, labeled "With Intervention", is an upward-facing concave curve. Even if it were linear, it does not align with the observed data referenced in the link labeled [2].
- joe_the_user 7y agoOK, looking at the new cases curve on your covid-19.direct page. As presented, you can't really see what the green curve is doing. If you remove the black, total curve, the green new case curve is visible but it seems to be going up and down fairly inconclusively. Until 4/1, it looks like exponential growth. After that, it goes down and then up. Sure, the optimistic view is it's plateaued or going downward and I hope that's true but counting on just twelve days of data seems foolish.
- mikekij 7y ago"If you remove the black, total curve, the green new case curve is visible but it seems to be going up and down fairly inconclusively." The best fit line of new cases after 4/4 is a linear function with a definitively negative slope. It is conclusively not a function that contributes to the upward, concave blue line on the state's graph.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWho cares what the best fit is. There is simply not enough data. You're talking twelves data points with considerable variation. Using statistic doesn't turn muddy and ambiguous data into a clear signal magically.
- mikekij 7y agoMy point is that there is no extrapolation of the data we’ve seen to date that yields the blue line on their graph.
- joe_the_user 7y agoSure, but I think they are tracing the worst case scenario based on the underlying assumption that the virus increases exponentially. What going to happen is indeed inherently uncertain so we pretty much have to prepare for the worst plausible series of events. Once it becomes clear that a better outcome is fairly likely, then the plans can shift.