4 ms·

I’d like to see something that’s clear and doesn’t risk so much on rapid accurate testing and tracking of... everyone with significant delayed feedback. Somethi

by kurthr 7y ago

I’d like to see something that’s clear and doesn’t risk so much on rapid accurate testing and tracking of... everyone with significant delayed feedback. Something that could be done in rural areas or even developing countries. A reliable next step in the Hammer and the Dance. I found this: http://pandemicbreak.org/ http://pandemicbreak.org/

eunoia 7y ago
Anecdote: My wife and I were tested at Stanford today. There was no line, the process took 5-10 minutes and we never left the car. We were told to expect results in 24 hours. Widespread testing might not be that far off and feedback might not be that delayed. Edit: Since HN won't let me comment fast enough I figured I'd share the information here. We were referred to Stanford by our PCP yesterday. We were not members of Stanford Health prior. The process looked like this: - Video chatted with our PCP yesterday evening, who referred us to Stanford Health. - Video chatted a few hours later with a physician from Stanford Health who approved the test. - Scheduled the test for noon the next day We are not overtly symptomatic for most of the symptoms (at the moment, it has been worse) and have not travelled abroad in a relevant timespan.
- raywu 7y ago
  Are you part of Stanford Health Care or is the test site open to public?
  - papeda 7y ago
    Similar but more general question: is testing available to everyone, e.g. random asymptomatic passersby?
    - raywu 7y ago
      I found a source[0]. Stanford was testing a larger population to get an estimate of the spread. [0] https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/ https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researcher...
      - Ankaios 7y ago
        That reference describes a separate antibody survey that Stanford ran on April 3 and 4. It's unrelated to great-great grandparent's test today.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- hangonhn 7y ago
  Where can I find out more about this?
  - eunoia 7y ago
    Call your doctor. Our experience would seem to indicate any PCP can refer you into the system.
manfredo 7y ago
Wouldn't the delay of feedback result in more conservative changes? If we're detecting the peak with a delayed measurement, then the instantaneous measurement would be even further past the peak.
- kurthr 7y ago
  The California plan is to use feedback which is either very slow/delayed (thus dangerous due to exponential growth). But like quenching an old school high gain regenerative reciever.. the Pandemic Break doesn't require any feedback! The ~2week quarantine time exponentially reduces carriers at a faster rate than the ~2 week open time allows them to spread. The idea is to allow commerce/socialization to be shifted into the open time while keeping the number of infected falling to deal with super-spreading or other events. This way though you could have a wedding and keep your parents... or have a corner store and the old grocer, a bar and a bartender.
HarryHirsch 7y ago
Consider that contact tracing was what worked reliably against Ebola. Those outbreaks took place in rural areas of developing countries. South Korea is having excellent success with contact tracing and quarantine. You do ask what billionaire funds that website you cite. No contact details usually indicate a Citizens United style slush fund.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I don't mean this to be a gotcha, but society has a lot of hidden complexity. Rigid prescriptive proposals like this are unlikely to be good ideas, which is why governments haven't been presenting them. In this particular case, the plan is great for personal life but is clearly infeasible economically. You can't just toggle a factory on and off every 2 weeks; it depends on supply chains extending weeks into the past and feeds into chains extending weeks into the future. Any complex business which is turned off in the 2 week breaks isn't going to be sustainable in the other 2 weeks.
- kurthr 7y ago
  Currently, those businesses can't plan on anything a month away. There could be demand or not, supplies or not, workers or not... nobody knows. Demand is crushed and never returns... Now consider the alternative. You know that you will be open in 2 weeks, you know when you need get parts there, and you know when demand will show up. You can still use some amount of "essential" work at the corners. The point of the two phases is to make sure that things don't blow back up again and to make it obvious to everyone that it's fair. Then, demand is shifted rather than destroyed and the economy can function at slightly reduced capacity while still keeping the viral contagion controlled (not some crazy let's hope there's herd immunity and let everyone get it, or we'll keep the ICUs full for 18 months and hope the immunity lasts that long).

by kurthr 7y ago

eunoia 7y ago

Anecdote: My wife and I were tested at Stanford today. There was no line, the process took 5-10 minutes and we never left the car. We were told to expect results in 24 hours. Widespread testing might not be that far off and feedback might not be that delayed. Edit: Since HN won't let me comment fast enough I figured I'd share the information here. We were referred to Stanford by our PCP yesterday. We were not members of Stanford Health prior. The process looked like this: - Video chatted with our PCP yesterday evening, who referred us to Stanford Health. - Video chatted a few hours later with a physician from Stanford Health who approved the test. - Scheduled the test for noon the next day We are not overtly symptomatic for most of the symptoms (at the moment, it has been worse) and have not travelled abroad in a relevant timespan.

raywu 7y ago
Are you part of Stanford Health Care or is the test site open to public?
- papeda 7y ago
  Similar but more general question: is testing available to everyone, e.g. random asymptomatic passersby?
  - raywu 7y ago
    I found a source[0]. Stanford was testing a larger population to get an estimate of the spread. [0] https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researchers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/ https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researcher...
    - Ankaios 7y ago
      That reference describes a separate antibody survey that Stanford ran on April 3 and 4. It's unrelated to great-great grandparent's test today.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
hangonhn 7y ago
Where can I find out more about this?
- eunoia 7y ago
  Call your doctor. Our experience would seem to indicate any PCP can refer you into the system.

manfredo 7y ago

Wouldn't the delay of feedback result in more conservative changes? If we're detecting the peak with a delayed measurement, then the instantaneous measurement would be even further past the peak.

kurthr 7y ago
The California plan is to use feedback which is either very slow/delayed (thus dangerous due to exponential growth). But like quenching an old school high gain regenerative reciever.. the Pandemic Break doesn't require any feedback! The ~2week quarantine time exponentially reduces carriers at a faster rate than the ~2 week open time allows them to spread. The idea is to allow commerce/socialization to be shifted into the open time while keeping the number of infected falling to deal with super-spreading or other events. This way though you could have a wedding and keep your parents... or have a corner store and the old grocer, a bar and a bartender.

HarryHirsch 7y ago

Consider that contact tracing was what worked reliably against Ebola. Those outbreaks took place in rural areas of developing countries. South Korea is having excellent success with contact tracing and quarantine. You do ask what billionaire funds that website you cite. No contact details usually indicate a Citizens United style slush fund.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

I don't mean this to be a gotcha, but society has a lot of hidden complexity. Rigid prescriptive proposals like this are unlikely to be good ideas, which is why governments haven't been presenting them. In this particular case, the plan is great for personal life but is clearly infeasible economically. You can't just toggle a factory on and off every 2 weeks; it depends on supply chains extending weeks into the past and feeds into chains extending weeks into the future. Any complex business which is turned off in the 2 week breaks isn't going to be sustainable in the other 2 weeks.

kurthr 7y ago
Currently, those businesses can't plan on anything a month away. There could be demand or not, supplies or not, workers or not... nobody knows. Demand is crushed and never returns... Now consider the alternative. You know that you will be open in 2 weeks, you know when you need get parts there, and you know when demand will show up. You can still use some amount of "essential" work at the corners. The point of the two phases is to make sure that things don't blow back up again and to make it obvious to everyone that it's fair. Then, demand is shifted rather than destroyed and the economy can function at slightly reduced capacity while still keeping the viral contagion controlled (not some crazy let's hope there's herd immunity and let everyone get it, or we'll keep the ICUs full for 18 months and hope the immunity lasts that long).