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The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed a

The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.

eli 7y ago
Of course. Many businesses that have closed will not reopen.
- tyingq 7y ago
  I'm curious about the effects of all the consolidation. The top 5 retail giants will, for example, absorb more market share.
  - m_mueller 7y ago
    wouldn't be so sure. small businesses probably have a somewhat higher ability to go into a sleeper mode where operative costs are reduced to a minimum.
    - tyingq 7y ago
      Right, but their customers are exploring new options, and maybe liking them, whilst the business sleeps.
    - leesalminen 7y ago
      Minimum operative costs are still in the thousands of dollars per month for even the smallest of meat-space businesses. I don't know many hairdressers, nail stylists and massage therapists that can afford $1-3k/mo for the next several months with $0 revenue. Anecdotal, sure, but I have at least one of each of those in my family.
      - tyingq 7y ago
        "hairdressers, nail stylists and massage therapists" Most of those folks are contractors that pay rent (for their "small spot") or some sort of cut to the entity that owns the physical salon, right? Though your point stands for the owners of such places, many of them probably working owners.
arbuge 7y ago
That is one of the questions. The most important one though is how long the lockdowns will last. The answer to your question actually depends on how long lockdowns last. The longer businesses are shut down, the harder it is to restart them.
nabla9 7y ago
There will be huge shift in structure of business. Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive. Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.
- bamboozled 7y ago
  Gloomy
- TheHypnotist 7y ago
  I'm sure the stir crazy masses will be able to detach from their dependence on the inflated costs of delivery services.
- OrangeMango 7y ago
  > Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Yes, many of the ones that shut will not reopen. But new ones will be started. Over time, not all at once.
- mantap 7y ago
  The change in habits cuts both ways. I've bought from many small online stores recently as a result of the big retailers (inc Amazon) being totally sold out.
  - timr 7y ago
    Similarly, I've been buying a lot more from smaller, local stores because the major chains are disasters. It's worth it to pay a few dollars more for groceries to avoid waiting in an hour-long line, for example. Just as companies are re-thinking the fragility of supply chains that depend on a single country, maybe this will help counter-balance the consumer trends toward huge retail.

The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.

eli 7y ago

Of course. Many businesses that have closed will not reopen.

tyingq 7y ago
I'm curious about the effects of all the consolidation. The top 5 retail giants will, for example, absorb more market share.
- m_mueller 7y ago
  wouldn't be so sure. small businesses probably have a somewhat higher ability to go into a sleeper mode where operative costs are reduced to a minimum.
  - tyingq 7y ago
    Right, but their customers are exploring new options, and maybe liking them, whilst the business sleeps.
  - leesalminen 7y ago
    Minimum operative costs are still in the thousands of dollars per month for even the smallest of meat-space businesses. I don't know many hairdressers, nail stylists and massage therapists that can afford $1-3k/mo for the next several months with $0 revenue. Anecdotal, sure, but I have at least one of each of those in my family.
    - tyingq 7y ago
      "hairdressers, nail stylists and massage therapists" Most of those folks are contractors that pay rent (for their "small spot") or some sort of cut to the entity that owns the physical salon, right? Though your point stands for the owners of such places, many of them probably working owners.

arbuge 7y ago

That is one of the questions. The most important one though is how long the lockdowns will last. The answer to your question actually depends on how long lockdowns last. The longer businesses are shut down, the harder it is to restart them.

nabla9 7y ago

There will be huge shift in structure of business. Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive. Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.

bamboozled 7y ago
Gloomy
TheHypnotist 7y ago
I'm sure the stir crazy masses will be able to detach from their dependence on the inflated costs of delivery services.
OrangeMango 7y ago
> Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Yes, many of the ones that shut will not reopen. But new ones will be started. Over time, not all at once.
mantap 7y ago
The change in habits cuts both ways. I've bought from many small online stores recently as a result of the big retailers (inc Amazon) being totally sold out.
- timr 7y ago
  Similarly, I've been buying a lot more from smaller, local stores because the major chains are disasters. It's worth it to pay a few dollars more for groceries to avoid waiting in an hour-long line, for example. Just as companies are re-thinking the fragility of supply chains that depend on a single country, maybe this will help counter-balance the consumer trends toward huge retail.