3 ms·

All I know is that the streets are just as crowded, people are still going out and businesses are still open. There are plenty of news reports showing that. T

by ksk 7y ago

All I know is that the streets are just as crowded, people are still going out and businesses are still open. There are plenty of news reports showing that. There is no known method of stopping the spread of this disease. Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same.

jmvoodoo 7y ago
The area under the infection curve does, but not the area under the death curve. The entire point of flattening the curve is to avoid doctors having to ration care due to overwhelming demand. Fwiw, I'm also in the camp that cases are an order of magnitude off and there is significantly more immunity in the population than we think. However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch.
- ksk 7y ago
  There's never ever going to be enough antibody kits for everyone in the world. Same with the PCR test, its impossible to make so many. The only discussion is going to be about the definition of "wide-spread". Whats yours?
  - joe_the_user 7y ago
    Why wouldn't there literally be enough antibody tests for everyone in the world? The world is full of factories producing a wide variety of things, including biological material. These factories can certainly gear up given time.
    - ksk 7y ago
      Because there isn't enough raw material (e.g. reagents), and even if we did have them and the planets supply chain is messed up. What makes you certain that it is possible to manufacture billions of tests?
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch. Wow, it is gratifying to see someone able to say this. Absolutely, with some luck there are a bunch of limiting factors (both that there's are harmless infections, that ) that are going to keep the epidemic from reaching the potential it seems to have "on paper". But these are unknown, these are the major unknowns and acting like we can just guestimate them and be safe is supremely irresponsible since if get it wrong, an order of magnitude more people die. A flu season? Ten flu season? A hundred flu season? Do you really want to roll those dice? To a fair extent, we already are but it's not comforting.
RealityVoid 7y ago
> Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same. Not necessarily. The higher the social distancing at the peak, the lower the percentage of infection needed for herd immunity to kick in. Ergo, in effect, lower number of cases. If you drop your R0 by half, your her immunity percentage necessary halves as well! Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity Look under the Mechanics section.
- ksk 7y ago
  No, even in your hypothetical case, the disease still continues to infect when you lift the social distancing and the economy re-opens. That is not herd immunity.

by ksk 7y ago

jmvoodoo 7y ago

The area under the infection curve does, but not the area under the death curve. The entire point of flattening the curve is to avoid doctors having to ration care due to overwhelming demand. Fwiw, I'm also in the camp that cases are an order of magnitude off and there is significantly more immunity in the population than we think. However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch.

ksk 7y ago
There's never ever going to be enough antibody kits for everyone in the world. Same with the PCR test, its impossible to make so many. The only discussion is going to be about the definition of "wide-spread". Whats yours?
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  Why wouldn't there literally be enough antibody tests for everyone in the world? The world is full of factories producing a wide variety of things, including biological material. These factories can certainly gear up given time.
  - ksk 7y ago
    Because there isn't enough raw material (e.g. reagents), and even if we did have them and the planets supply chain is messed up. What makes you certain that it is possible to manufacture billions of tests?
joe_the_user 7y ago
However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch. Wow, it is gratifying to see someone able to say this. Absolutely, with some luck there are a bunch of limiting factors (both that there's are harmless infections, that ) that are going to keep the epidemic from reaching the potential it seems to have "on paper". But these are unknown, these are the major unknowns and acting like we can just guestimate them and be safe is supremely irresponsible since if get it wrong, an order of magnitude more people die. A flu season? Ten flu season? A hundred flu season? Do you really want to roll those dice? To a fair extent, we already are but it's not comforting.

RealityVoid 7y ago

> Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same. Not necessarily. The higher the social distancing at the peak, the lower the percentage of infection needed for herd immunity to kick in. Ergo, in effect, lower number of cases. If you drop your R0 by half, your her immunity percentage necessary halves as well! Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity Look under the Mechanics section.

ksk 7y ago
No, even in your hypothetical case, the disease still continues to infect when you lift the social distancing and the economy re-opens. That is not herd immunity.