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I think it would be better to think about the economy in terms of actual resources and human capital rather than stock market figures, the former isn't vanishin

I think it would be better to think about the economy in terms of actual resources and human capital rather than stock market figures, the former isn't vanishing into thin air. Agreed. This is why I don't get all the doom and gloom, and all the people saying the bailouts/stimulus/low interest rates are going to further wreck things. All of the actual value and technology that we've built up as a society is still there, ready and waiting to kick back into gear. I don't see how moving some numbers around in the meantime is going to create a long lasting deleterious effect. I feel pretty confident that, once the engine starts back up again, things are gonna boom. Would love to understand why I'm wrong, but this article just pointed out a bunch of statistics that are bad right now but didn't really seem to make an argument to back up its headline which I'm going to call BS clickbait.

adventured 7y ago
We got our inevitable recession out of the way in this process, in a rapid sharp action. That of course is not meant to trivialize the terrible pain of going through this pandemic, nor the depths of the hit we're taking (the recession we would have endured would have been far less painful, including to employment). The economy will gently boom in the years following the distribution of a vaccine. Start to finish the Fed and US Government is going to pour enormous amounts of liquidity into the economy the likes of which has never been seen before in human history. There are no restraints at this point, no serious blockers saying don't do it. While everyone is acting fiscally wild, we should call up the Japanese and do a financing and technology deal with them, to build regional high-speed rail across the US and complete it this decade. It's a worthy infrastructure project that can produce a lot of jobs and economic floatation action (the airlines won't appreciate it). Make it a federal project, and aggressively swat away regulatory, environmental and NIMBYism delays. The Federal Reserve has crossed the rubicon (they've fully breached old lines in the sand that quasi kept them a layer or two removed from putting their hands on the real economy), we might as well do the things now that we should have done previously. They can snap their fingers and finance this project in the coming years. We should probably also go ahead and stop pretending the Federal Reserve isn't now a big corner of our Treasury and merge the two (won't happen officially, but it has happened de facto). There's no going back, not with the pile of debt we'll have coming out of this. It's perma QE all the way for the next 20-30 years.
xbmcuser 7y ago
A large percentage of the world's economy is about superfluous things and addictions. The 2-3 months break is going to wean off a lot of people and the number of people going back will be fewer. That's my opinion. What everyone else is looking at is money 1). large percentage of small businesses were running month to month after 2-3 months of no revenue many of them won't start back up again. 2). Over the lockdown period people have lost jobs, run through their savings or run up large credit card debt. Once it opens they will be frugal to either save up or pay of the debt. 3). Bankruptcies and repossessions are going to create a glut of supply at the same time demand will be less so industries won't be able to start back up much even after the lock down is removed. These are just some of things happening that I see going forward. Maybe I am wrong and that's not how economies work. All this is just the current situation we are not even sure how long these lockdowns will last. But as economy shrinks it will effect every industry.

adventured 7y ago

We got our inevitable recession out of the way in this process, in a rapid sharp action. That of course is not meant to trivialize the terrible pain of going through this pandemic, nor the depths of the hit we're taking (the recession we would have endured would have been far less painful, including to employment). The economy will gently boom in the years following the distribution of a vaccine. Start to finish the Fed and US Government is going to pour enormous amounts of liquidity into the economy the likes of which has never been seen before in human history. There are no restraints at this point, no serious blockers saying don't do it. While everyone is acting fiscally wild, we should call up the Japanese and do a financing and technology deal with them, to build regional high-speed rail across the US and complete it this decade. It's a worthy infrastructure project that can produce a lot of jobs and economic floatation action (the airlines won't appreciate it). Make it a federal project, and aggressively swat away regulatory, environmental and NIMBYism delays. The Federal Reserve has crossed the rubicon (they've fully breached old lines in the sand that quasi kept them a layer or two removed from putting their hands on the real economy), we might as well do the things now that we should have done previously. They can snap their fingers and finance this project in the coming years. We should probably also go ahead and stop pretending the Federal Reserve isn't now a big corner of our Treasury and merge the two (won't happen officially, but it has happened de facto). There's no going back, not with the pile of debt we'll have coming out of this. It's perma QE all the way for the next 20-30 years.

xbmcuser 7y ago

A large percentage of the world's economy is about superfluous things and addictions. The 2-3 months break is going to wean off a lot of people and the number of people going back will be fewer. That's my opinion. What everyone else is looking at is money 1). large percentage of small businesses were running month to month after 2-3 months of no revenue many of them won't start back up again. 2). Over the lockdown period people have lost jobs, run through their savings or run up large credit card debt. Once it opens they will be frugal to either save up or pay of the debt. 3). Bankruptcies and repossessions are going to create a glut of supply at the same time demand will be less so industries won't be able to start back up much even after the lock down is removed. These are just some of things happening that I see going forward. Maybe I am wrong and that's not how economies work. All this is just the current situation we are not even sure how long these lockdowns will last. But as economy shrinks it will effect every industry.