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Literally everyone in this scenario thinks this way at first because they can't comprehend exponential growth. Nobody can, there are actual studies that show no

by ztjio 7y ago

Literally everyone in this scenario thinks this way at first because they can't comprehend exponential growth. Nobody can, there are actual studies that show nobody can understand it so it's not a slight. The only way you can convince me based on evidence elsewhere that your scenario is going to be any better than anywhere else is if your leadership in your area is doing aggressive testing, contact tracing and targeted isolation protocols akin to South Korea.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I'm not sure why it's a question of "going to be". The scenario in most states is better than New York, and has been for a while, even though many of them confirmed their first case earlier.
burfog 7y ago
Consider the R0 value that you're trying to reduce by social distancing. New York City starts with a high value. People encounter each other in apartment hallways, packed subways, crowded streets, and huge stadiums. Rural places don't have any of that. People don't pass by any non-family when going from home to car. Non-family don't share that car. The streets are nearly empty of people, with just the occasional person out walking a dog. There might not be exponential growth. If R0 is below 1, there is exponential decay.
LyndsySimon 7y ago
I’ve been watching this situation for months at this point, so I can assure you I’m personally taking it seriously. It’s not that my area is taking no measures at all - only that we’re being much less aggressive about it than other areas. All of the restaurants are closed for dine-in, as many as possible are working from home, and we’re social distancing. The governor of Arkansas is convinced that is enough. So far - at least for the area where I live - that does indeed seem to be the case. There have been a total of five confirmed positives in my county, and one of them is already listed as recovered. The data are not above teh noise floor, so it’s hard to be completely sure, but it really looks like we’re succeeding in keeping it from getting a foothold here.

by ztjio 7y ago

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

I'm not sure why it's a question of "going to be". The scenario in most states is better than New York, and has been for a while, even though many of them confirmed their first case earlier.

burfog 7y ago

Consider the R0 value that you're trying to reduce by social distancing. New York City starts with a high value. People encounter each other in apartment hallways, packed subways, crowded streets, and huge stadiums. Rural places don't have any of that. People don't pass by any non-family when going from home to car. Non-family don't share that car. The streets are nearly empty of people, with just the occasional person out walking a dog. There might not be exponential growth. If R0 is below 1, there is exponential decay.

LyndsySimon 7y ago

I’ve been watching this situation for months at this point, so I can assure you I’m personally taking it seriously. It’s not that my area is taking no measures at all - only that we’re being much less aggressive about it than other areas. All of the restaurants are closed for dine-in, as many as possible are working from home, and we’re social distancing. The governor of Arkansas is convinced that is enough. So far - at least for the area where I live - that does indeed seem to be the case. There have been a total of five confirmed positives in my county, and one of them is already listed as recovered. The data are not above teh noise floor, so it’s hard to be completely sure, but it really looks like we’re succeeding in keeping it from getting a foothold here.