4 ms·

There are major unknowns about the long-term viability of everything from airlines, hotels to ice cream parlors. Consumer behavior will change as a result of th

There are major unknowns about the long-term viability of everything from airlines, hotels to ice cream parlors. Consumer behavior will change as a result of this, and more so when the second (and third...) waves of the virus start to hit in the fall. Even if the orders are lifted, a good chunk of the population is not going to venture out but take a lets-see approach. Also even at the end of the current quarantine period, companies are not going to pop out and be ready to go just as they were before. The economic landscape will look like after a hurricane has hit, companies that have laid off people are not going to be in a hurry to rehire them in my opinion. Companies are in general unlikely to rehire previously reduced folks (and reduced folks are likewise unlikely to want to return to previous employers), and are instead going to look for new candidates. What we typically see after recessions is massive movements of people between the sectors. The recovery will be a long hard slog. I'd love to share your optimism, but I think the hurricane analogy is apt, even after the sun starts to shine we'll be living in the aftermath of unprecedented economic destruction.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Previous pandemics of comparable severity haven't affected the long-term viability of hotels and ice cream parlors. It's unrealistic to expect that people won't want to travel or eat out. Airplanes I'll grant you - I can definitely see a world where flights swing closer to a luxury good like they were decades ago.
- bigfuz 6y ago
  Previous pandemics?!?
- bathtub365 6y ago
  Which previous pandemic of this scale are you using as an example?
  - dmoy 6y ago
    Swine flu killed a couple hundred thousand only 10 years ago or so. There were a pair of flu pandemics each lasting about a year, one in the 1950s, and one in the 60s. Each of those killed a million. The Spanish flu killed like ?? tens of millions, also in a year or two. There was a more protracted pandemic that killed a million around 1910-1920, but it wasn't a flu.
- caseysoftware 6y ago
  > It's unrealistic to expect that people won't want to travel or eat out. Yes, people will want to eat out. But it will be fewer than a few months ago because a) layoffs, b) less disposable income, c) the fear of less/no income soon, d) the fear/risk of getting sick, and other reasons I can't guess. Whether that is -10%, -50% or -95% has yet to be seen and near impossible to predict usefully right now.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

Previous pandemics of comparable severity haven't affected the long-term viability of hotels and ice cream parlors. It's unrealistic to expect that people won't want to travel or eat out. Airplanes I'll grant you - I can definitely see a world where flights swing closer to a luxury good like they were decades ago.

bigfuz 6y ago
Previous pandemics?!?
bathtub365 6y ago
Which previous pandemic of this scale are you using as an example?
- dmoy 6y ago
  Swine flu killed a couple hundred thousand only 10 years ago or so. There were a pair of flu pandemics each lasting about a year, one in the 1950s, and one in the 60s. Each of those killed a million. The Spanish flu killed like ?? tens of millions, also in a year or two. There was a more protracted pandemic that killed a million around 1910-1920, but it wasn't a flu.
caseysoftware 6y ago
> It's unrealistic to expect that people won't want to travel or eat out. Yes, people will want to eat out. But it will be fewer than a few months ago because a) layoffs, b) less disposable income, c) the fear of less/no income soon, d) the fear/risk of getting sick, and other reasons I can't guess. Whether that is -10%, -50% or -95% has yet to be seen and near impossible to predict usefully right now.