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1. These large 20%+ rallies are always common in bear markets. 2. The Fed has committed all told nearly 10 trillion dollars, maybe more. 3. Very little macro

1. These large 20%+ rallies are always common in bear markets. 2. The Fed has committed all told nearly 10 trillion dollars, maybe more. 3. Very little macro data has been released. Market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery which isn’t out of the question if we can open up in May. Having said all of this, I think we head lower as the health crisis turns into a really bad recession. There may not be jobs for these workers to go back to.

gnulinux 7y ago
If we open up in May, we will likely experience an even worse second peak.
soperj 7y ago
>Market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery which isn’t out of the question if we can open up in May. Market was due for a fall, this was just what kicked it into gear. I doubt it'll be V shaped. I also doubt that you'll be opened back up in May. I don't see Italy opening up any time soon, and New State alone looks like it'll be worse than Italy.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  I'm not sure what you mean by "alone" here. New York is by far the worst hit area of the US; many states are doing no worse than Denmark or Austria, which are going to start opening up next week.
  - soperj 7y ago
    Denmark completely shut its borders. Austria has made everyone wear masks, and have been shutdown for a long time. US states like Mississippi are still arguing that everyone should be essential. There are at 11 states with double the number of confirmed cases as Denmark, and I don't see any of them actually slowing down currently. They're all experiencing 4 times more daily cases than Denmark.
solotronics 7y ago
Won't this essentially end up with the banks owning every company?
dragonwriter 7y ago
> Market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery which isn’t out of the question if we can open up in May. If we try to open up generally in May, without some massive improvement in testing and contact tracing (and the federal government withdrawing support for testing makes that less likely) the shape is going to be more like a left-right reversal of an italic N than a V, due to the devastating and probably higher second peak and the necessary response the run up to that peak will provoke.

gnulinux 7y ago

If we open up in May, we will likely experience an even worse second peak.

soperj 7y ago

>Market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery which isn’t out of the question if we can open up in May. Market was due for a fall, this was just what kicked it into gear. I doubt it'll be V shaped. I also doubt that you'll be opened back up in May. I don't see Italy opening up any time soon, and New State alone looks like it'll be worse than Italy.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I'm not sure what you mean by "alone" here. New York is by far the worst hit area of the US; many states are doing no worse than Denmark or Austria, which are going to start opening up next week.
- soperj 7y ago
  Denmark completely shut its borders. Austria has made everyone wear masks, and have been shutdown for a long time. US states like Mississippi are still arguing that everyone should be essential. There are at 11 states with double the number of confirmed cases as Denmark, and I don't see any of them actually slowing down currently. They're all experiencing 4 times more daily cases than Denmark.

solotronics 7y ago

Won't this essentially end up with the banks owning every company?

dragonwriter 7y ago

> Market is pricing in a V-shaped recovery which isn’t out of the question if we can open up in May. If we try to open up generally in May, without some massive improvement in testing and contact tracing (and the federal government withdrawing support for testing makes that less likely) the shape is going to be more like a left-right reversal of an italic N than a V, due to the devastating and probably higher second peak and the necessary response the run up to that peak will provoke.