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No politician wants to say it, but the plan regardless was to quarentine until a vaccine comes out in 1 or 2 years. That or accept the 0.5 percent death rate w

No politician wants to say it, but the plan regardless was to quarentine until a vaccine comes out in 1 or 2 years. That or accept the 0.5 percent death rate with the "flatten the curve" method where we all catch it. Your concern means we'd only have situation 1, quarentine for 1 or 2 years.

TaylorGood 7y ago
Logic says this too. Deadly, contagious virus with no vaccine, which takes roughly 18 months. There aren't too many options. I've heard chatter that big co's started telling their employees they're planning 18 months WFH.
- rpiguy 7y ago
  Logic says just to live with it like we live with the flu and go on with life. The mortality rate is comparable. CDC is projecting 60K deaths if we open up most of the economy by the end of May. In the 2018-2019 flu season flu killed 80,000. Once the disease surge in densely populated ends areas it appears to become quite manageable.
  - yyyk 7y ago
    It's a prediction given previous containment measures. Without those measures, a far higher count is predicted. We'll probably wear masks this entire time, and there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges. Until we find an effective treatment or a vaccine.
    - rpiguy 7y ago
      The prediction assumes containment measures are eased by the end of May.
      - yyyk 7y ago
        That's exactly my point. You're comparing COVID with containment measures to a flu without containment measures, and from that you conclude we'll manage COVID without containment and that we'll "live with it like with the flu". That doesn't make sense at all. If there's a second wave, we'll probably need those containment measures again just to bring it down to the flu level.
        rpiguy 7y ago
        All indications are that COVID does not mutate like the flu, so preceding waves should be mild. Every flu season it’s one of many very different strains. Furthermore we have data from countries that have not locked down that show comparable mortality. This is an illness that needn’t shut down countries once the densely populated areas have their initial outbreaks. Hospitals outside of those areas are so slow hospitals are furloughing workers. The total deaths across the US are down year over year for the month of March. If this were a raging pandemic this would not be the case.
        yyyk 7y ago
        Countries which have not locked down with comparable mortality? E. Asian countries use a strict screen-and-test routine (+ a few restrictions), and if/when that slips they turn to a lockdown until they can control the outbreak enough to return to screen-and-test (e.g. Singapore just these recent days). That's a data point, but I don't think it supports the 'just get back to usual' POV. The US has far more entry points than Singapore, even after it manages to control the disease internally. The UK abandoned their no-lockdown policy because it didn't work. That leaves us with.. Sweden which doesn't look good at all compared to its neighbours which have locked down?
    - lbeltrame 7y ago
      > there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges Honest question: do you think a second quarantine will be as effective as the first? Tracing and isolation after the first quarantine must be as close as spotless as possible, because personally I don't believe that the population will tolerate a second lock-up as easily as the first.
      - yyyk 7y ago
        Hmm.. I think it can be done effectively enough. Public will may decline/increase depending on country and political climate, but enforcement, tracking and treatment mechanisms will have improved everywhere. So a 2nd quarantine need not be as effective as the first, and overall, governments that will want to lock down will be able to do it. The real question is whether a political/economical calculation will delay a 2nd quarantine unnecessarily in cases it is necessary.
        yyyk 7y ago
        Reading this article[0] things look far worse in Italy than how I thought they are. Still I suspect the state can enforce this. It would be nice if its EU partners offered actual assistance... [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-...
        lbeltrame 7y ago
        It's not a matter of assistance or not. If you want lockdowns, you have to have plans on when to lift or ease them (even if you just re-evaluate them every two weeks). Governments and their expert panels can't just think that people will "reprogram" themselves to stay away from most social contacts. It's alienating at best and outright dangerous for one's mind at worst. Once the number of cases gets low, it won't be possible, or justifiable, to keep people locked up. Even more so that some countries that were affected after my own have already begun their plans to lift lockdowns (some with definite dates, some without).
asveikau 7y ago
I don't think so. It's not like somewhere like China got to lower numbers now because most of them got it and are immune. As percentage of population the number that got it is quite small. They got control of the situation because the people who had it didn't spread and they recovered. Now they are vulnerable to it being reintroduced. But they don't need full lockdown. So another scenario is that active cases subside and we don't travel or amass in large groups for a while. This is short of your two year quarantine (which by the way you didn't spell correctly, a hint for how to spell it is that it derives from Italian 'quaranta', meaning 40, for a 40 day isolation).
lbeltrame 7y ago
> No politician wants to say it, but the plan regardless was to quarentine until a vaccine comes out in 1 or 2 years. This is unfeasible for most of the population, and a vaccine may not work at all (people assume it will, but there's no guarantee). If they work, drugs are what will be needed to turn the tide short-term.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
Note to readers that there's been a flood of new accounts like this one, whose first and only comment is "haha we'll be in quarantine for 2 years". This is the third one I've noticed in the past 2 days. Either it's a popular troll or someone's making a concerted effort to manipulate the discourse; in either case I think it's important not to take this seriously.
- Trasmatta 7y ago
  I had to step off Reddit entirely for this very reason. Comments like this are commonplace, and get thousands of upvotes. It's bizarre.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    Reddit has been invaded by legions of newly minted authoritarians who think we should lock everything down with martial law and shoot anyone who dares to come out of their house. On the flip side, there's more than a few people suggesting this is all an elaborate hoax designed to give the gov't vastly increased control of the citizenry. They feed off each other. And HN isn't entirely immune. I see some of it happening here too, though it is not as prevalent as on Reddit.
- 12yrprogrammer 7y ago
  Nah I just keep getting shadow banned because dang works for Apple. Also, look at the argument, not the user. You have appeal to authority fallacy.
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't post this sort of insinuation of astroturfing. There's a site guideline specifically against it: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html The reason is that people are far too quick to leap to this interpretation, and since we have next to no data about each other from HN posts, pretty much every divisive topic gets drowned in such insinuations if allowed to. Lots more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
Trasmatta 7y ago
There's not going to be a 2 year quarantine, but I do see these things happening, in various places (depending on a bunch of local factors): * Mandatory mask usage * Mandatory temperature checks in certain places (restaurants, airports, etc?) * Many companies continuing their WFH policies * Greatly expanded testing and contact tracing, allowing local outbreaks to be more easily contained * Quarantines for high risk individuals
rpiguy 7y ago
The mortality rate is low, I suspect we will just live with it like we do with the flu until a vaccine is found.

TaylorGood 7y ago

Logic says this too. Deadly, contagious virus with no vaccine, which takes roughly 18 months. There aren't too many options. I've heard chatter that big co's started telling their employees they're planning 18 months WFH.

rpiguy 7y ago
Logic says just to live with it like we live with the flu and go on with life. The mortality rate is comparable. CDC is projecting 60K deaths if we open up most of the economy by the end of May. In the 2018-2019 flu season flu killed 80,000. Once the disease surge in densely populated ends areas it appears to become quite manageable.
- yyyk 7y ago
  It's a prediction given previous containment measures. Without those measures, a far higher count is predicted. We'll probably wear masks this entire time, and there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges. Until we find an effective treatment or a vaccine.
  - rpiguy 7y ago
    The prediction assumes containment measures are eased by the end of May.
    - yyyk 7y ago
      That's exactly my point. You're comparing COVID with containment measures to a flu without containment measures, and from that you conclude we'll manage COVID without containment and that we'll "live with it like with the flu". That doesn't make sense at all. If there's a second wave, we'll probably need those containment measures again just to bring it down to the flu level.
      - rpiguy 7y ago
        All indications are that COVID does not mutate like the flu, so preceding waves should be mild. Every flu season it’s one of many very different strains. Furthermore we have data from countries that have not locked down that show comparable mortality. This is an illness that needn’t shut down countries once the densely populated areas have their initial outbreaks. Hospitals outside of those areas are so slow hospitals are furloughing workers. The total deaths across the US are down year over year for the month of March. If this were a raging pandemic this would not be the case.
        yyyk 7y ago
        Countries which have not locked down with comparable mortality? E. Asian countries use a strict screen-and-test routine (+ a few restrictions), and if/when that slips they turn to a lockdown until they can control the outbreak enough to return to screen-and-test (e.g. Singapore just these recent days). That's a data point, but I don't think it supports the 'just get back to usual' POV. The US has far more entry points than Singapore, even after it manages to control the disease internally. The UK abandoned their no-lockdown policy because it didn't work. That leaves us with.. Sweden which doesn't look good at all compared to its neighbours which have locked down?
  - lbeltrame 7y ago
    > there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges Honest question: do you think a second quarantine will be as effective as the first? Tracing and isolation after the first quarantine must be as close as spotless as possible, because personally I don't believe that the population will tolerate a second lock-up as easily as the first.
    - yyyk 7y ago
      Hmm.. I think it can be done effectively enough. Public will may decline/increase depending on country and political climate, but enforcement, tracking and treatment mechanisms will have improved everywhere. So a 2nd quarantine need not be as effective as the first, and overall, governments that will want to lock down will be able to do it. The real question is whether a political/economical calculation will delay a 2nd quarantine unnecessarily in cases it is necessary.
      - yyyk 7y ago
        Reading this article[0] things look far worse in Italy than how I thought they are. Still I suspect the state can enforce this. It would be nice if its EU partners offered actual assistance... [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-...
        lbeltrame 7y ago
        It's not a matter of assistance or not. If you want lockdowns, you have to have plans on when to lift or ease them (even if you just re-evaluate them every two weeks). Governments and their expert panels can't just think that people will "reprogram" themselves to stay away from most social contacts. It's alienating at best and outright dangerous for one's mind at worst. Once the number of cases gets low, it won't be possible, or justifiable, to keep people locked up. Even more so that some countries that were affected after my own have already begun their plans to lift lockdowns (some with definite dates, some without).

asveikau 7y ago

I don't think so. It's not like somewhere like China got to lower numbers now because most of them got it and are immune. As percentage of population the number that got it is quite small. They got control of the situation because the people who had it didn't spread and they recovered. Now they are vulnerable to it being reintroduced. But they don't need full lockdown. So another scenario is that active cases subside and we don't travel or amass in large groups for a while. This is short of your two year quarantine (which by the way you didn't spell correctly, a hint for how to spell it is that it derives from Italian 'quaranta', meaning 40, for a 40 day isolation).

lbeltrame 7y ago

> No politician wants to say it, but the plan regardless was to quarentine until a vaccine comes out in 1 or 2 years. This is unfeasible for most of the population, and a vaccine may not work at all (people assume it will, but there's no guarantee). If they work, drugs are what will be needed to turn the tide short-term.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

Note to readers that there's been a flood of new accounts like this one, whose first and only comment is "haha we'll be in quarantine for 2 years". This is the third one I've noticed in the past 2 days. Either it's a popular troll or someone's making a concerted effort to manipulate the discourse; in either case I think it's important not to take this seriously.

Trasmatta 7y ago
I had to step off Reddit entirely for this very reason. Comments like this are commonplace, and get thousands of upvotes. It's bizarre.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  Reddit has been invaded by legions of newly minted authoritarians who think we should lock everything down with martial law and shoot anyone who dares to come out of their house. On the flip side, there's more than a few people suggesting this is all an elaborate hoax designed to give the gov't vastly increased control of the citizenry. They feed off each other. And HN isn't entirely immune. I see some of it happening here too, though it is not as prevalent as on Reddit.
12yrprogrammer 7y ago
Nah I just keep getting shadow banned because dang works for Apple. Also, look at the argument, not the user. You have appeal to authority fallacy.
dang 7y ago
Please don't post this sort of insinuation of astroturfing. There's a site guideline specifically against it: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html The reason is that people are far too quick to leap to this interpretation, and since we have next to no data about each other from HN posts, pretty much every divisive topic gets drowned in such insinuations if allowed to. Lots more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...

Trasmatta 7y ago

There's not going to be a 2 year quarantine, but I do see these things happening, in various places (depending on a bunch of local factors): * Mandatory mask usage * Mandatory temperature checks in certain places (restaurants, airports, etc?) * Many companies continuing their WFH policies * Greatly expanded testing and contact tracing, allowing local outbreaks to be more easily contained * Quarantines for high risk individuals

rpiguy 7y ago

The mortality rate is low, I suspect we will just live with it like we do with the flu until a vaccine is found.