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While I agree that it will take longer (and wind up different looking) to full recovery, having governments and business plan for the next pandemic will not hap

While I agree that it will take longer (and wind up different looking) to full recovery, having governments and business plan for the next pandemic will not happen. Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking.

vikramkr 6y ago
I also think a lesson people might have learned on the business side is that theres almost no point planning for something like this - how is a small business supposed to have enough cash on hand to make it through something like this? This is just so bad for so many restaurants/small businesses etc that it's not really something you can overcome with some planning if you own a small margin small business
- londons_explore 6y ago
  The same is true of a fire in your small restaurant. Yet people buy insurance for that. Pandemic insurance could exist, and a massive fund could be built up over many decades to pay out when a pandemic does occur. It would be expensive though. If a pandemic occurs every 100 years, and cuts revenue to zero for 6 months, that means the average cost is 0.5% of revenue...
  - vikramkr 6y ago
    By your own calculation there that's a really tall order for restaurants to afford, and the damages are also hard to tabulate. For flood or fire you can mitigate your risk and clearly value the damages - how exactly do you tabulate for shutting down a restaurant? Who decides what revenues would have been for a new restaurant?
    - londons_explore 6y ago
      damages could be written into the insurance contract. For example, "During any pandemic period, as defined by WHO, the policyholder may define a single continuous wholly contained subperiod for a claim. A business valuation shall be made of all assets at both the start and end of this subperiod by designated auditor X. The insurance policy shall pay out the difference in valuations."
  - LeifCarrotson 6y ago
    Whether pandemic insurance exists or not doesn't change the average cost (except for the insurance company's profit margin). The average cost to society will still be 0.5% even if no one carries insurance for it.
  - rsync 6y ago
    "Pandemic insurance could exist ..." Pandemic insurance does exist: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/wimbledon-2020-cancelation-were-fortunate-to-have-the-insurance-218810.aspx https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/w... "Meanwhile The Times as well as The Guardian reported the estimated payout for the cancelation to be in excess of £100 million (around $123.7 million). AELTC is said to be in the process of putting together the claim."
  - bigmanwalter 6y ago
    Pandemic insurance doesn't really make sense. Fires are isolated events, and it is incredibly unlikely that every insured business catches fire all at once. On the other hand, the very nature of a pandemic is that all insured businesses will make their claims at the same time. It's impossible to actually make it work.
londons_explore 6y ago
> Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking. ... unless there is profit to be made! What financial instruments could be made to give massive payouts in case of a future pandemic? If enough of those instruments existed, there would be financial skin-in-the-game for preventing pandemics.
- bwb 6y ago
  Check out pandemic bonds, they aren't working :)
  - lmm 6y ago
    They're working pretty well, the funds have been made available for relief efforts. They were maybe not as hedged as people wanted.
bwb 6y ago
I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done with proper unemployment systems that can help people get back to work, but also are ready to go in cases like this or recessions. The delay to pay people is crazy. The EU and Canadian unemployment systems are designed for this more than the American system and it is showing.
- sremani 6y ago
  A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”. The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates. China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians.
    - briandear 6y ago
      > The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go. Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts? https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud... > China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians. You don't know anything about China's leadership. They're all politicians. Not a decision gets made without it being vetted ideologically -- ideology always comes first. And we should look at the timelines from China before saying they "got it right."[1] [1] https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/ https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...
amiga_500 6y ago
That is just in America, the rest of the western world will plan far better because short term profits for the rich are not the overriding factor.

vikramkr 6y ago

I also think a lesson people might have learned on the business side is that theres almost no point planning for something like this - how is a small business supposed to have enough cash on hand to make it through something like this? This is just so bad for so many restaurants/small businesses etc that it's not really something you can overcome with some planning if you own a small margin small business

londons_explore 6y ago
The same is true of a fire in your small restaurant. Yet people buy insurance for that. Pandemic insurance could exist, and a massive fund could be built up over many decades to pay out when a pandemic does occur. It would be expensive though. If a pandemic occurs every 100 years, and cuts revenue to zero for 6 months, that means the average cost is 0.5% of revenue...
- vikramkr 6y ago
  By your own calculation there that's a really tall order for restaurants to afford, and the damages are also hard to tabulate. For flood or fire you can mitigate your risk and clearly value the damages - how exactly do you tabulate for shutting down a restaurant? Who decides what revenues would have been for a new restaurant?
  - londons_explore 6y ago
    damages could be written into the insurance contract. For example, "During any pandemic period, as defined by WHO, the policyholder may define a single continuous wholly contained subperiod for a claim. A business valuation shall be made of all assets at both the start and end of this subperiod by designated auditor X. The insurance policy shall pay out the difference in valuations."
- LeifCarrotson 6y ago
  Whether pandemic insurance exists or not doesn't change the average cost (except for the insurance company's profit margin). The average cost to society will still be 0.5% even if no one carries insurance for it.
- rsync 6y ago
  "Pandemic insurance could exist ..." Pandemic insurance does exist: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/wimbledon-2020-cancelation-were-fortunate-to-have-the-insurance-218810.aspx https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/w... "Meanwhile The Times as well as The Guardian reported the estimated payout for the cancelation to be in excess of £100 million (around $123.7 million). AELTC is said to be in the process of putting together the claim."
- bigmanwalter 6y ago
  Pandemic insurance doesn't really make sense. Fires are isolated events, and it is incredibly unlikely that every insured business catches fire all at once. On the other hand, the very nature of a pandemic is that all insured businesses will make their claims at the same time. It's impossible to actually make it work.

londons_explore 6y ago

> Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking. ... unless there is profit to be made! What financial instruments could be made to give massive payouts in case of a future pandemic? If enough of those instruments existed, there would be financial skin-in-the-game for preventing pandemics.

bwb 6y ago
Check out pandemic bonds, they aren't working :)
- lmm 6y ago
  They're working pretty well, the funds have been made available for relief efforts. They were maybe not as hedged as people wanted.

bwb 6y ago

I'd also point out that planning for "high risk" events like this is not something small to medium size businesses should be doing. Government yes, but I don't expect my mexican restaurant to have a plan in case of a global pandemic :). Just like I don't expect them to hedge pork futures so my pork tamales don't go up 8 cents. Gov is insurance and I want them to be building resilience into the system. That is done with proper unemployment systems that can help people get back to work, but also are ready to go in cases like this or recessions. The delay to pay people is crazy. The EU and Canadian unemployment systems are designed for this more than the American system and it is showing.

sremani 6y ago
A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”. The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates. China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians.
  - briandear 6y ago
    > The CDC has a pandemic team, they were let go. Can we please stop parroting that distortion of the facts? https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/ https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud... > China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STEM and less lawyers and politicians. You don't know anything about China's leadership. They're all politicians. Not a decision gets made without it being vetted ideologically -- ideology always comes first. And we should look at the timelines from China before saying they "got it right."[1] [1] https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devastating-lies/ https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...

amiga_500 6y ago

That is just in America, the rest of the western world will plan far better because short term profits for the rich are not the overriding factor.