4 ms·

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened signific

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.

gruez 7y ago
You're right. Mortality for the virus would significantly increase if emergency rooms are overcrowded. No beds/ventilators = patients that would have survived dying. Last I've heard, around 15% of infected need to be hospitalized.
- nradov 7y ago
  Availability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.
  - gruez 7y ago
    >but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.
    - lordlimecat 7y ago
      When you start selecting for patients who are the most vulnerable and suffer the most acute cases, it doesn't seem surprising that you can end with a high mortality rate.
      - nradov 7y ago
        There's more to it than that. Doctors actually treating COVID-19 patients in hospitals report that the disease progression is significantly different than the usual ARDS. https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/#d.en.140202 https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/...
    - nradov 7y ago
      Here's the source. https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-moving-away-from-ventilators-for-15187546.php https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-mov...
lostlogin 7y ago
Here in New Zealand we are hoping you are correct and seeing signs that you are. It seems odd to link to reddit graphs - but they are quite good and are up to date. https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png

4 ms·

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened signific

by jjnoakes 7y ago

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.

gruez 7y ago
You're right. Mortality for the virus would significantly increase if emergency rooms are overcrowded. No beds/ventilators = patients that would have survived dying. Last I've heard, around 15% of infected need to be hospitalized.
- nradov 7y ago
  Availability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.
  - gruez 7y ago
    >but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.
    - lordlimecat 7y ago
      When you start selecting for patients who are the most vulnerable and suffer the most acute cases, it doesn't seem surprising that you can end with a high mortality rate.
      - nradov 7y ago
        There's more to it than that. Doctors actually treating COVID-19 patients in hospitals report that the disease progression is significantly different than the usual ARDS. https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/#d.en.140202 https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/...
    - nradov 7y ago
      Here's the source. https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-moving-away-from-ventilators-for-15187546.php https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-mov...
lostlogin 7y ago
Here in New Zealand we are hoping you are correct and seeing signs that you are. It seems odd to link to reddit graphs - but they are quite good and are up to date. https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png