3 ms·

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young,

This doesn't factor in QALYs saved at all though. The average COVID-19 death in Italy is 78 years old and sick. The average hunger death is going to be young, otherwise healthy, and in the developing world (likely somewhere in sub-saharan Africa). You can draw your own measures, but I would not personally weight these lives saved equally. I would personally throw several 78 year olds under the COVID-bus to save the life of one young child. I think most people would draw similar lines.

locococo 7y ago
I think every life is worth saving. Your argument is a slippery slope. People of old age have contributed to society their entire life and the real perversion is that we should not be at a point where such thoughts make it into public discourse.
- bpodgursky 7y ago
  That's a reasonable sentiment, but it's not the world we are in, and we will be making economic and health decisions over the next 18 months which will force this tradeoff. They need to be intentional choices, with an understanding of the costs, where the costs are often paid by people we don't see or frequently think about.
DanBC 7y ago
That comorbidity data might be a bit more complicated. https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248 https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248 > The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8 > Secondly, just 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. That’s significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients (as illustrated in table 1) > So 19 out of 20 were free of the most severe life-limiting conditions. 4/8 > Lastly, for now, the age distribution. Most critical cases are aged between 50 and 80. > People of this age, without severe comorbidities, could reasonably have expected to have years of life ahead of them before they contracted this disease. 5/8
- filoleg 7y ago
  >> The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8 Not making any comments on the rest of your points, but I have to heavily disagree with this one. Sure, people who have cardiovascular and heart issues, diabetes, asthma, etc. are all "able to live without assistance in daily activities". That doesn't suggest reasonable health to me at all, it just tells me that they are able to live their lives without a caretaker by their side. And data from Italy suggests that over 99% of the people who died from COVID had existing conditions like those[0]. 0. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...

locococo 7y ago

I think every life is worth saving. Your argument is a slippery slope. People of old age have contributed to society their entire life and the real perversion is that we should not be at a point where such thoughts make it into public discourse.

bpodgursky 7y ago
That's a reasonable sentiment, but it's not the world we are in, and we will be making economic and health decisions over the next 18 months which will force this tradeoff. They need to be intentional choices, with an understanding of the costs, where the costs are often paid by people we don't see or frequently think about.

DanBC 7y ago

That comorbidity data might be a bit more complicated. https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248 https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248 > The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8 > Secondly, just 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. That’s significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients (as illustrated in table 1) > So 19 out of 20 were free of the most severe life-limiting conditions. 4/8 > Lastly, for now, the age distribution. Most critical cases are aged between 50 and 80. > People of this age, without severe comorbidities, could reasonably have expected to have years of life ahead of them before they contracted this disease. 5/8

filoleg 7y ago
>> The first thing that jumps out from the medical history section of Table 1 is that 93% of those critically ill with COVID-19 were “able to live without assistance in daily activities” prior to developing the disease. That typically suggests reasonable health. 3/8 Not making any comments on the rest of your points, but I have to heavily disagree with this one. Sure, people who have cardiovascular and heart issues, diabetes, asthma, etc. are all "able to live without assistance in daily activities". That doesn't suggest reasonable health to me at all, it just tells me that they are able to live their lives without a caretaker by their side. And data from Italy suggests that over 99% of the people who died from COVID had existing conditions like those[0]. 0. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...