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This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually? One ironic downside of “flattening
by TechBro8615 7y ago
This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually?
One ironic downside of “flattening the curve” is that it makes it longer. So, barring a vaccine or effective therapeutic treatment, we will all get the virus eventually (but in an orderly fashion, which is good for the health system), and that 75 million deaths will become a reality. Note that’s also assuming a 1% death rate which may be a vast overestimate depending on asymptomatic percentages.
That said, I tend to agree with you that we should keep social distancing in place until we are able to contain new cases, or until we have a much better understanding of the virus itself. At this point there is just too much uncertainty, so it’s better to wait it out until we can establish some clarity and have a better idea of how to approach therapeutics.
- jjnoakes 7y agoI don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.
- gruez 7y agoYou're right. Mortality for the virus would significantly increase if emergency rooms are overcrowded. No beds/ventilators = patients that would have survived dying. Last I've heard, around 15% of infected need to be hospitalized.
- nradov 7y agoAvailability of hospital beds is certainly important, but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die. We should deploy more ventilators but even if hospitals run out that will have only a small impact on the total infection fatality rate.
- gruez 7y ago>but about 80% of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators die Source for this? That sounds like a shockingly high number if true.
- lordlimecat 7y agoWhen you start selecting for patients who are the most vulnerable and suffer the most acute cases, it doesn't seem surprising that you can end with a high mortality rate.
- nradov 7y agoThere's more to it than that. Doctors actually treating COVID-19 patients in hospitals report that the disease progression is significantly different than the usual ARDS. https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/#d.en.140202 https://www.evms.edu/covid-19/medical_information_resources/...
- nradov 7y agoHere's the source. https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-moving-away-from-ventilators-for-15187546.php https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-mov...
- lostlogin 7y agoHere in New Zealand we are hoping you are correct and seeing signs that you are. It seems odd to link to reddit graphs - but they are quite good and are up to date. https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png