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Unlike the USA, China does not have huge resources of natural gas. For the most part, natural gas will not replace coal in China. China does have a lot of rene

Unlike the USA, China does not have huge resources of natural gas. For the most part, natural gas will not replace coal in China. China does have a lot of renewables[1] - enormous solar and wind farms in the interior and west, and the potential for far more. These can produce energy much cheaper than coal plants can. But the challenge is getting that energy to the more populous provinces in the south and east where it’s needed. Transmission infrastructure is expensive, even in China. [1] Renewables supplied 27% of China’s electricity in 2017, compared to only 4% for natural gas.

adventured 7y ago
> Unlike the USA, China does not have a lot of natural gas. China doesn't need a lot of natural gas within its borders. It's neighbors with Russia, which can supply via pipeline all the natural gas that China can take. The issue is it remains cheaper to do coal domestically in China than to buy natural gas from Russia, so they overwhelmingly prefer to do that still. It's also of course expedient for China to use coal, whereas pipelines and energy deals can take a decade. Their 2014 deal was a $400 billion arrangement involving an 8,000 km pipeline. China has greater access to natural gas thanks to bordering Russia, than nearly all of the world's largest natural gas producers have access to natural gas in their own backyards.
- Reason077 7y ago
  Perhaps, but it’s hard to see China ever wanting to become too dependent on imported natural gas. They like coal not only because it’s cheap (which, increasingly, it isn’t), but because it’s domestic.
  - macintux 7y ago
    The virus might change that calculation to some degree, now that we know it can be transmitted via air pollution.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - badpun 7y ago
      Do we?
      - macintux 7y ago
        “Know” is perhaps strong, but there are studies pointing that way. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v... https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_le-coronavirus-pourrait-rester-plusieurs-heures-dans-l-air-a-cause-de-la-pollution-atmospherique?id=10464049 https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_le-coronavirus-pourr...
- teruakohatu 7y ago
  Russia has shown to be willing to use natural gas as a geopolitical weapon. There is no chance China will become dependant on natural gas from outside their border.
  - function_seven 7y ago
    I'm thinking that China could flip the script by getting Russia to become dependent on Chinese money buying their gas. Use just enough of it to establish the relationship, but not so much that a pipeline shutdown will overly harm the Chinese economy. The population ratio (~10:1) and GDP ratio (~4:1) makes it possible to create this scenario.
  - bobthepanda 7y ago
    Not only that, but Russia-Chinese relations have not always been smooth. They have had dustups over one of the longest land borders in the world before.
    - eunos 7y ago
      With this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Sino-Soviet_Border_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Sino-Soviet_Border_Agreem... I think border disagreement already solved. Besides, I believe they realize the contention between them only strengthens NATO over them. I think the possible conflict nowadays is influence over central Asia. However, they might share the influence with China got the economic influence and Russia got political influence. It is interesting to predict this balance post-Putin though.
      - bobthepanda 7y ago
        I mean, that's for now. Russia and the US also signed an agreement over the Ukraine in 1994 and look how that went.
        vkou 7y ago
        Ukraine moving out of the Russian, and into the NATO sphere of influence is the reason for why that went the way it did. The China-Russia dynamic is a little different.

adventured 7y ago

> Unlike the USA, China does not have a lot of natural gas. China doesn't need a lot of natural gas within its borders. It's neighbors with Russia, which can supply via pipeline all the natural gas that China can take. The issue is it remains cheaper to do coal domestically in China than to buy natural gas from Russia, so they overwhelmingly prefer to do that still. It's also of course expedient for China to use coal, whereas pipelines and energy deals can take a decade. Their 2014 deal was a $400 billion arrangement involving an 8,000 km pipeline. China has greater access to natural gas thanks to bordering Russia, than nearly all of the world's largest natural gas producers have access to natural gas in their own backyards.

Reason077 7y ago
Perhaps, but it’s hard to see China ever wanting to become too dependent on imported natural gas. They like coal not only because it’s cheap (which, increasingly, it isn’t), but because it’s domestic.
- macintux 7y ago
  The virus might change that calculation to some degree, now that we know it can be transmitted via air pollution.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - badpun 7y ago
    Do we?
    - macintux 7y ago
      “Know” is perhaps strong, but there are studies pointing that way. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v... https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_le-coronavirus-pourrait-rester-plusieurs-heures-dans-l-air-a-cause-de-la-pollution-atmospherique?id=10464049 https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_le-coronavirus-pourr...
teruakohatu 7y ago
Russia has shown to be willing to use natural gas as a geopolitical weapon. There is no chance China will become dependant on natural gas from outside their border.
- function_seven 7y ago
  I'm thinking that China could flip the script by getting Russia to become dependent on Chinese money buying their gas. Use just enough of it to establish the relationship, but not so much that a pipeline shutdown will overly harm the Chinese economy. The population ratio (~10:1) and GDP ratio (~4:1) makes it possible to create this scenario.
- bobthepanda 7y ago
  Not only that, but Russia-Chinese relations have not always been smooth. They have had dustups over one of the longest land borders in the world before.
  - eunos 7y ago
    With this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Sino-Soviet_Border_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Sino-Soviet_Border_Agreem... I think border disagreement already solved. Besides, I believe they realize the contention between them only strengthens NATO over them. I think the possible conflict nowadays is influence over central Asia. However, they might share the influence with China got the economic influence and Russia got political influence. It is interesting to predict this balance post-Putin though.
    - bobthepanda 7y ago
      I mean, that's for now. Russia and the US also signed an agreement over the Ukraine in 1994 and look how that went.
      - vkou 7y ago
        Ukraine moving out of the Russian, and into the NATO sphere of influence is the reason for why that went the way it did. The China-Russia dynamic is a little different.