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Yeah, but most setbacks lead to a 10% drop in flights, not 99. This is quite material. A company that anticipated up to a 20% drop in flights and saved to last

Yeah, but most setbacks lead to a 10% drop in flights, not 99. This is quite material. A company that anticipated up to a 20% drop in flights and saved to last a year with that, will only be able to last a few months with a basically 100% drop in flights. That is exactly what we're seeing now.

Supermancho 7y ago
I know everyone likes "the good ol' days" but this is a teachable moment. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.
- tathougies 7y ago
  No its not. No company should prepare for its business model to be made illegal. The best outcome for shareholders there is to return money to them before the business model becomes impossible and declare bankruptcy.
  - Supermancho 7y ago
    > No company should prepare for its business model to be made illegal. Yes. When you have a business in an industry that is in the political or regulatory eye, you should prepare. This is historical prudence. > this is a teachable moment > No its not. I would treat it as such and that's the problem, isn't it? The model didn't become illegal, it became impractical for an extended duration of inactivity. This isn't an unexpected natural disaster, it's a rather regular event. Something something The Ant and The Grasshopper. Maybe another incarnation will show better judgement by holding more reserves and point backward. The inability to consider history is a trend of the USA, politically and commercially now.
sgift 7y ago
You could always limit it to companies that can show the money which would have been used if there was a limited decline in business. Separate the ones who did indeed behave responsible and were caught by this extraordinary event from those who bought back stock without thinking about tomorrow.
- tathougies 7y ago
  Clearly all of them were prepared for some contingency given that they are still in business several months after a drastic decline in demand for flights.

Supermancho 7y ago

I know everyone likes "the good ol' days" but this is a teachable moment. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

tathougies 7y ago
No its not. No company should prepare for its business model to be made illegal. The best outcome for shareholders there is to return money to them before the business model becomes impossible and declare bankruptcy.
- Supermancho 7y ago
  > No company should prepare for its business model to be made illegal. Yes. When you have a business in an industry that is in the political or regulatory eye, you should prepare. This is historical prudence. > this is a teachable moment > No its not. I would treat it as such and that's the problem, isn't it? The model didn't become illegal, it became impractical for an extended duration of inactivity. This isn't an unexpected natural disaster, it's a rather regular event. Something something The Ant and The Grasshopper. Maybe another incarnation will show better judgement by holding more reserves and point backward. The inability to consider history is a trend of the USA, politically and commercially now.

sgift 7y ago

You could always limit it to companies that can show the money which would have been used if there was a limited decline in business. Separate the ones who did indeed behave responsible and were caught by this extraordinary event from those who bought back stock without thinking about tomorrow.

tathougies 7y ago
Clearly all of them were prepared for some contingency given that they are still in business several months after a drastic decline in demand for flights.