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>>It'd be painful but it might make sense for mall owners to forgive the rent while everything is closed You are assuming that the owner himself does not have

>>It'd be painful but it might make sense for mall owners to forgive the rent while everything is closed You are assuming that the owner himself does not have a mortgage with a bank. A bank would never just waive mortgage payments. The preferable thing to do is to make a payment agreement for the late rent payments. With the first payment for the late rent not due until conditions improve. Although, this is what the 2 trillion stimulus package is supposed to address. I think.

jfoutz 7y ago
Well, good luck to the bank. Foreclose and enjoy owning a few acres of urban blight. Banks are highly specialized, and that specialization isn't well suited to property management. Property management is highly specialized and that specialization isn't well suited to running a retail operation. Retail operations are highly specialized and blah blah blah. So, you gotta pick. Either put things on pause, and hope it comes back, or let those with specialized skills wander off and do what they do in other places. I'm pretty sure there will be plenty of demand all over the country once there's a vaccine. 2 years? Funny how organizations have an appetite for risk until they start losing. Too much avocado toast I guess. This is glib, but, I think, has a kernel of truth. Economies work due to markets. The market is coming back either way. Hang on to the mall in the hope it'll bounce back, or unload it now.
- r00fus 7y ago
  > Well, good luck to the bank. Foreclose and enjoy owning a few acres of urban blight. Theoretically Id' agree with you, but that's exactly what happened in 2008. Banks got bailed out (bigger banks got more $$) and they just rode out the recession by getting SEC to pass a rule that removed "mark to market" rules. There is no law or regulation that is exempt from being manipulated by the most powerful lobby in the country.
  - jfoutz 7y ago
    _blink_ Err. No. I'm not advocating for a bank bail out. The joke about avocado toast pointed in that direction, but was a bit opaque. I think there's basically a pyramid. at the tippy top, there are fabulously profitable large organizations. Those are built on smaller organizations, recursively down to people. I've got no problems giving a 20 year old who thought a magna shop was their way to riches a bailout. they're young and dumb, will learn and do better next time. The bigger you are, the more responsible you need to be. Banks should be elite. they evaluated the alternatives and made the best bet they could. Essentially at the lowest level, be super tolerant. the higher up an organization gets, the more responsibility they take on. if that's too scary, don't grow. if you need the net, keep the net. if you don't, well, best of luck. I know it doesn't work this way. I think it should, but I can't wave a magic wand and make the world work like I want it to. I think if everybody has enough money to buy food and possibly pay rent, all the other layers "above" will sort themselves out by clever people. The bottom drives the market. The top is like a whale eating krill. Everybody wants to be the whale. but if there's no krill, there's not much of anything.
- imtringued 7y ago
  There are lots of parts of the economy that are still working. Why break them? Why not help only those who actually need it?
  - jfoutz 7y ago
    Err, I made a more elaborate reply to r00fus below. Essentially, give people money if they're on the edge. Corporations are the cogs, and relatively easily replaced. Some people suck, some people are amazing, but it's fundamentally people that drive, not corporations. It doesn't actually work this way. it'll never actually work this way. in my, very humble, opinion it'd be better for everybody.
- threatofrain 7y ago
  It’s still too presumptive to assume that there’s going to be a vaccine, or that the virus won’t mutate too quickly.
  - jfoutz 7y ago
    I'm going to sound like "it's just the flu" guy, and I hate that. I hate it so much. Humans are terrifying apex predators. We're not great at flu vaccinations. But we're good enough to continue to be apex predators. I'm not a doctor, I'm absolutely not your doctor. mutation isn't free. It's tough to maintain infection rate when we're hunting. Mutate, to hide, for sure. The virus wins in a few ways, but we'll find that and turn it into a cold. The virus will get lots of chances to kill us all off. Actually, I have some risk factors and my chances aren't great. I'm an example human, but not the paragon human. Anyway, perhaps wishful thinking. Mutation rates are scary, but disrupting a couple of factors is probably enough. If it's infectious but non-fatal, who cares? If it's fatal but can't transmit, who cares? Mutate. go nuts. just get away from this local optimum that is infectious and fatal.
x0x0 7y ago
Some stores sales are just deferred, but many of them are never getting those sales back. The owners would be nuts to agree to make late rent payments -- if they weren't open, they don't earn. By the time we're finally no longer quarantined in the bay area, we aren't going to go out and eat 3 months of restaurant meals in arrears. We're now deciding who pays for the economic shortfall, and stores should play hardball. Do landlords want to be renting space in the coming retail apocalypse?
- imtringued 7y ago
  The landlords don't need to care about the retail apocalypse. They can just rent out to whatever retail competitor decided to actually take advantage of the real solution.

jfoutz 7y ago

Well, good luck to the bank. Foreclose and enjoy owning a few acres of urban blight. Banks are highly specialized, and that specialization isn't well suited to property management. Property management is highly specialized and that specialization isn't well suited to running a retail operation. Retail operations are highly specialized and blah blah blah. So, you gotta pick. Either put things on pause, and hope it comes back, or let those with specialized skills wander off and do what they do in other places. I'm pretty sure there will be plenty of demand all over the country once there's a vaccine. 2 years? Funny how organizations have an appetite for risk until they start losing. Too much avocado toast I guess. This is glib, but, I think, has a kernel of truth. Economies work due to markets. The market is coming back either way. Hang on to the mall in the hope it'll bounce back, or unload it now.

r00fus 7y ago
> Well, good luck to the bank. Foreclose and enjoy owning a few acres of urban blight. Theoretically Id' agree with you, but that's exactly what happened in 2008. Banks got bailed out (bigger banks got more $$) and they just rode out the recession by getting SEC to pass a rule that removed "mark to market" rules. There is no law or regulation that is exempt from being manipulated by the most powerful lobby in the country.
- jfoutz 7y ago
  _blink_ Err. No. I'm not advocating for a bank bail out. The joke about avocado toast pointed in that direction, but was a bit opaque. I think there's basically a pyramid. at the tippy top, there are fabulously profitable large organizations. Those are built on smaller organizations, recursively down to people. I've got no problems giving a 20 year old who thought a magna shop was their way to riches a bailout. they're young and dumb, will learn and do better next time. The bigger you are, the more responsible you need to be. Banks should be elite. they evaluated the alternatives and made the best bet they could. Essentially at the lowest level, be super tolerant. the higher up an organization gets, the more responsibility they take on. if that's too scary, don't grow. if you need the net, keep the net. if you don't, well, best of luck. I know it doesn't work this way. I think it should, but I can't wave a magic wand and make the world work like I want it to. I think if everybody has enough money to buy food and possibly pay rent, all the other layers "above" will sort themselves out by clever people. The bottom drives the market. The top is like a whale eating krill. Everybody wants to be the whale. but if there's no krill, there's not much of anything.
imtringued 7y ago
There are lots of parts of the economy that are still working. Why break them? Why not help only those who actually need it?
- jfoutz 7y ago
  Err, I made a more elaborate reply to r00fus below. Essentially, give people money if they're on the edge. Corporations are the cogs, and relatively easily replaced. Some people suck, some people are amazing, but it's fundamentally people that drive, not corporations. It doesn't actually work this way. it'll never actually work this way. in my, very humble, opinion it'd be better for everybody.
threatofrain 7y ago
It’s still too presumptive to assume that there’s going to be a vaccine, or that the virus won’t mutate too quickly.
- jfoutz 7y ago
  I'm going to sound like "it's just the flu" guy, and I hate that. I hate it so much. Humans are terrifying apex predators. We're not great at flu vaccinations. But we're good enough to continue to be apex predators. I'm not a doctor, I'm absolutely not your doctor. mutation isn't free. It's tough to maintain infection rate when we're hunting. Mutate, to hide, for sure. The virus wins in a few ways, but we'll find that and turn it into a cold. The virus will get lots of chances to kill us all off. Actually, I have some risk factors and my chances aren't great. I'm an example human, but not the paragon human. Anyway, perhaps wishful thinking. Mutation rates are scary, but disrupting a couple of factors is probably enough. If it's infectious but non-fatal, who cares? If it's fatal but can't transmit, who cares? Mutate. go nuts. just get away from this local optimum that is infectious and fatal.

x0x0 7y ago

Some stores sales are just deferred, but many of them are never getting those sales back. The owners would be nuts to agree to make late rent payments -- if they weren't open, they don't earn. By the time we're finally no longer quarantined in the bay area, we aren't going to go out and eat 3 months of restaurant meals in arrears. We're now deciding who pays for the economic shortfall, and stores should play hardball. Do landlords want to be renting space in the coming retail apocalypse?

imtringued 7y ago
The landlords don't need to care about the retail apocalypse. They can just rent out to whatever retail competitor decided to actually take advantage of the real solution.