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> CDC numbers for the "flu" are actually a combined "flu and pneumonia" That's just like Covid though - they are counting everyone who dies with the virus even

> CDC numbers for the "flu" are actually a combined "flu and pneumonia" That's just like Covid though - they are counting everyone who dies with the virus even though most have other conditions.

nullc 7y ago
That argument no longer works when we're seeing highly infected regions with significant increases in their _all cause_ mortality rate, e.g. https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20-because-of-coronavirus-lombardy-up-about-80/ https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20... https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/01/virus-deaths-nearly-doubling-milans-normal-mortality-rate.html https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/01/virus-deaths-...
- diryawish 7y ago
  Italy’s death rates are up 20% when comparing this year’s average to a typical year’s whole average. This way of comparing averages may skew the information. In America, we have more average daily deaths in the beginning of the year than in the middle and end until December. The average of January through March will always be higher than the yearly average.
  - amenod 7y ago
    This! This is the latest data published by the Italian Ministry of Health. Looking at the chart on the second page, try to ignore the lines (we all know there is an infinite amount of ways one can approximate a curve to the dots) and just observe the dots. Does this seem like a bad year to you? Compared to winter 2016/17? http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/SISMG_sintesi_ULTIMO.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/SISMG_sintesi_ULTIMO.... Also note that all the charts are misleading since they don't start with 0 (the effect is exaggerated).
    - takeda 7y ago
      What are you talking about? The spike started in mid March, that's just a single data point on that graph.
    - kgwgk 7y ago
      "What the official figures don’t say. They don’t say that in March 2020 more than 5.400 people have died in Bergamo province, 4.500 of which due to coronavirus. Six times more than the previous year." https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/ https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronaviru... Doesn't that seem like a bad year to you?
- akvadrako 7y ago
  It does because regional fluctuations don't warrant a widespread overreaction. Overall mortality for Europe is lower than during most flu seasons: https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/
  - graeme 7y ago
    That’s for week 13. I expect france would be higher now. Week 13 is march 22-28 if I counted right. Deaths lag cases. French Coronavirus deaths went from 674 on the 22nd, to 2314 on the 28th, to 8078 yesterday april 5th. I would say your comment is premature.
  - takeda 7y ago
    Because if no coronavirus this would be rather a good year. The December-February looked better than on average. The thing you are missing though is that crisis started mid March. It feels like forever (because of shelter at home), but it is a very short time and every few days the number of cases doubles. Most of that doesn't register on graphs that spans multiple years (look at the dates).

> CDC numbers for the "flu" are actually a combined "flu and pneumonia" That's just like Covid though - they are counting everyone who dies with the virus even though most have other conditions.

nullc 7y ago

That argument no longer works when we're seeing highly infected regions with significant increases in their _all cause_ mortality rate, e.g. https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20-because-of-coronavirus-lombardy-up-about-80/ https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20... https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/01/virus-deaths-nearly-doubling-milans-normal-mortality-rate.html https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/01/virus-deaths-...

diryawish 7y ago
Italy’s death rates are up 20% when comparing this year’s average to a typical year’s whole average. This way of comparing averages may skew the information. In America, we have more average daily deaths in the beginning of the year than in the middle and end until December. The average of January through March will always be higher than the yearly average.
- amenod 7y ago
  This! This is the latest data published by the Italian Ministry of Health. Looking at the chart on the second page, try to ignore the lines (we all know there is an infinite amount of ways one can approximate a curve to the dots) and just observe the dots. Does this seem like a bad year to you? Compared to winter 2016/17? http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/SISMG_sintesi_ULTIMO.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/SISMG_sintesi_ULTIMO.... Also note that all the charts are misleading since they don't start with 0 (the effect is exaggerated).
  - takeda 7y ago
    What are you talking about? The spike started in mid March, that's just a single data point on that graph.
  - kgwgk 7y ago
    "What the official figures don’t say. They don’t say that in March 2020 more than 5.400 people have died in Bergamo province, 4.500 of which due to coronavirus. Six times more than the previous year." https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/ https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronaviru... Doesn't that seem like a bad year to you?
akvadrako 7y ago
It does because regional fluctuations don't warrant a widespread overreaction. Overall mortality for Europe is lower than during most flu seasons: https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/
- graeme 7y ago
  That’s for week 13. I expect france would be higher now. Week 13 is march 22-28 if I counted right. Deaths lag cases. French Coronavirus deaths went from 674 on the 22nd, to 2314 on the 28th, to 8078 yesterday april 5th. I would say your comment is premature.
- takeda 7y ago
  Because if no coronavirus this would be rather a good year. The December-February looked better than on average. The thing you are missing though is that crisis started mid March. It feels like forever (because of shelter at home), but it is a very short time and every few days the number of cases doubles. Most of that doesn't register on graphs that spans multiple years (look at the dates).