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> Based on Diamond Princess data, where almost everyone was tested, the lower bound of COVID19's IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) should be > 0.5% for many/most co

> Based on Diamond Princess data, where almost everyone was tested, the lower bound of COVID19's IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) should be > 0.5% for many/most countries. No, you can't compare a country's likely outcome to that of a cruise ship. On ships, the virus propogates very differently and the viral load will likely be much higher in infections due to constant contact while onboard. When viral loads are higher, the severity of the disease and mortality rate are also much higher [0]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral...

nopinsight 6y ago
That's a good point. It depends on how many infections on DP occurred after passenger isolations & mitigation measures, which would also lower viral load. I'm not sure we have that data. They stayed on the cruise for a long time. A Japanese expert went on the ship to examine the practice and he was very concerned of further infections. Viral load from infection on DP would be quite close to those living in the same apartment/house/nursing home. In a country with multi-generation households, the viral load could be similar, unless measures are well taken. In other countries, the viral load would depend on how well the elderly are shielded from infection.