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It will also filter out sound business models that actually do work in times of plenty, but don't under the conditions of a pandemic.
by EthanHeilman 7y ago
It will also filter out sound business models that actually do work in times of plenty, but don't under the conditions of a pandemic.
- nostrebored 7y agoThat's far from a sound business model.
- cutemonster 7y agoFor example restaurants and cafes and gyms
- pmart123 7y agoI'm not sure I buy this. 80-90% revenue declines across many industries is unprecedented. Especially in cases where poor operations didn't impact the business. Businesses like Hilton or Disney that have operated for 100 years may go bankrupt (not out of business) before this is all over.
- jbverschoor 7y agoAnd they will simply continue after the bankruptcy
- pmart123 7y agoYes, I mentioned this. I’m just saying that a large drop in revenue right now doesn’t necessary correlate with a product that people generally want or is useful.
- Zenbit_UX 7y agoHilton may go bankrupt but Disney won't, they've been quite successful at diversifying their portfolio and I'm sure their streaming service is doing quite well. They recently announced that at least one of their upcoming movies will skip theatres and go directly to their streaming service, while others theatrical releases are being pushed back. This allows certain parts of their business empire to fund the less performant ones e.g. adventure parks. Hilton has no such option, they're quite invested in the hospitality industry which leaves very little room for pivoting.
- mmahemoff 7y agoWorking 99 out of every 100 years is quite sound.
- nostrebored 7y agoNo, about every 8 years we see contractions.
- bitreality 7y agoRight but they didn't result in Hilton / Disney having 80-90% revenue drops overnight. This is a very unique contraction. Even in the depths of 2008, DisneyWorld still had a steady flow of visitors, and Hilton hotels across the world still welcomed guests.
- makomk 7y agoThis is rather worse than your typical 8-year contraction. Like, experts aren't sure if it's going to be better or worse than the Great Depression and they're not optimistic based on what we've seen so far levels of bad.
- adamsea 7y agoHotels. Parking. Restaurants. Not sound?
- vkou 7y agoMost business models also don't work if the world plunges into global thermonuclear war, but we still consider them to be sound.
- EthanHeilman 7y agoYep, if your startup plan has a good chunk of the budget dedicated to "how does the business survive global thermonuclear war" you are wasting money, time and focus.