4 ms·

In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies

16 points by mitchbob 7y ago

voyager2 7y ago
In the US, the right to travel is one of the most basic. The right to work comes along somewhere close to that. I couldn't have imagined Americans would ever stand for such a thing, but current attitudes seem poised to easily fall over to that.
- rdtwo 7y ago
  Interstate travel is being shut down in certain us regions like you aren’t being allowed to travel from Louisiana to Florida or New York to Florida so it’s possible
- javagram 7y ago
  There are 19th century legal cases backing up travel restrictions to prevent disease spread. It’s not something we’re used to after the mid-20th-century eradication of most major diseases from the USA but there is ample precedent in our constitution and laws for it. For instance, https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/ https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/ “ That from an early day the power of the states to enact and enforce quarantine laws for the safety and the protection of the health of their inhabitants has been recognized by Congress is beyond question. That until Congress has exercised its power on the subject, such state quarantine laws and state laws for the purpose of preventing, eradicating, or controlling the spread of contagious or infectious diseases, are not repugnant to the Constitution of the United States although their operation affects interstate or foreign commerce is not an open question. The doctrine was elaborately examined and stated in Morgan Steamship Company v. Louisiana Board of Health, 118 U. S. 455”
sharken 7y ago
Should we also get a “Flu pass 2020”, seeing as the common flu can also be quite deadly? And if the virus mutate into a new variant what then, another pass? For those with chronic diseases and the very old, the next 6-12 months will be very difficult and staying at home while practicing distancing will be a good start. The data seems to support that the rest of the population should be able to go about their ways without any pass.
- javagram 7y ago
  There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.
  - sharken 7y ago
    Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-flu-season-hits-hard-in-north-carolina/ https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following back in January: "flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Keep in mind that there are multiple elements to risk: mortality (deaths), morbidity (general diseased or injured state, also incidence or prevalence), infectiousness, detectability, rate of transmission, long-term health consequences, social & economic impacts. Regards COVID-19: The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Comparing with other diseases: Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. Virus Death Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%* SARS: 9.6% MERS: 4% Swine Flu: 0.02% The case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
jgalt212 7y ago
All of this seems invasive, but so does a pandemic. Someone has to come up with a plan on how to reboot the world, and this is a good first step.
animalnewbie 7y ago
Do there exist antibody tests right now for corona virus?
- javagram 7y ago
  Yes, the article states they are being tested in Italy. One was just approved for the USA 2 days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibo...
DeonPenny 7y ago
Cuomo also talked about this. I'll give it to end of April to you have most people back if not early may. This test, unlike the other one, holds a lot of financial weight so it's going to get a lot of people on Wallstreet and small business wanting to sponsor these tests.
readhn 7y ago
The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the loss of immunity for instance.
- __blockcipher__ 7y ago
  We could re-test for antibodies at regular intervals. Besides, the small chance of getting infected due to immunity eroding would not be super consequential in the scheme of things. In general I think people waste too much time with this whole “we don’t know how long immunity lasts” line of thought. Immunity is a robust mechanism that tends to “just work”. Even if mutations mean that what used to be 100% immunity is now only 50%, the effect on net transmission is tremendous.
  - sharken 7y ago
    I agree that immunity is what will help curb the virus, in Denmark “Herd immunity” is the unofficial strategy. I do think that a Corona pass would only make sense for certain parts of the population only, e.g. the very old and those with other chronic illnesses.

16 points by mitchbob 7y ago

In the US, the right to travel is one of the most basic. The right to work comes along somewhere close to that. I couldn't have imagined Americans would ever stand for such a thing, but current attitudes seem poised to easily fall over to that.

rdtwo 7y ago
Interstate travel is being shut down in certain us regions like you aren’t being allowed to travel from Louisiana to Florida or New York to Florida so it’s possible
javagram 7y ago
There are 19th century legal cases backing up travel restrictions to prevent disease spread. It’s not something we’re used to after the mid-20th-century eradication of most major diseases from the USA but there is ample precedent in our constitution and laws for it. For instance, https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/ https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/186/380/ “ That from an early day the power of the states to enact and enforce quarantine laws for the safety and the protection of the health of their inhabitants has been recognized by Congress is beyond question. That until Congress has exercised its power on the subject, such state quarantine laws and state laws for the purpose of preventing, eradicating, or controlling the spread of contagious or infectious diseases, are not repugnant to the Constitution of the United States although their operation affects interstate or foreign commerce is not an open question. The doctrine was elaborately examined and stated in Morgan Steamship Company v. Louisiana Board of Health, 118 U. S. 455”

sharken 7y ago

Should we also get a “Flu pass 2020”, seeing as the common flu can also be quite deadly? And if the virus mutate into a new variant what then, another pass? For those with chronic diseases and the very old, the next 6-12 months will be very difficult and staying at home while practicing distancing will be a good start. The data seems to support that the rest of the population should be able to go about their ways without any pass.

javagram 7y ago
There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.
- sharken 7y ago
  Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-flu-season-hits-hard-in-north-carolina/ https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following back in January: "flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    Keep in mind that there are multiple elements to risk: mortality (deaths), morbidity (general diseased or injured state, also incidence or prevalence), infectiousness, detectability, rate of transmission, long-term health consequences, social & economic impacts. Regards COVID-19: The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Comparing with other diseases: Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. Virus Death Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%* SARS: 9.6% MERS: 4% Swine Flu: 0.02% The case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

jgalt212 7y ago

All of this seems invasive, but so does a pandemic. Someone has to come up with a plan on how to reboot the world, and this is a good first step.

animalnewbie 7y ago

Do there exist antibody tests right now for corona virus?

javagram 7y ago
Yes, the article states they are being tested in Italy. One was just approved for the USA 2 days ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibo...

DeonPenny 7y ago

Cuomo also talked about this. I'll give it to end of April to you have most people back if not early may. This test, unlike the other one, holds a lot of financial weight so it's going to get a lot of people on Wallstreet and small business wanting to sponsor these tests.

readhn 7y ago

The problem is that we still dont know if there is long term immunity from the virus.... even if you have antibodies in your blood. they might help you tomorrow, but next fall or year the antibody titer might be low leading to the loss of immunity for instance.

__blockcipher__ 7y ago
We could re-test for antibodies at regular intervals. Besides, the small chance of getting infected due to immunity eroding would not be super consequential in the scheme of things. In general I think people waste too much time with this whole “we don’t know how long immunity lasts” line of thought. Immunity is a robust mechanism that tends to “just work”. Even if mutations mean that what used to be 100% immunity is now only 50%, the effect on net transmission is tremendous.
- sharken 7y ago
  I agree that immunity is what will help curb the virus, in Denmark “Herd immunity” is the unofficial strategy. I do think that a Corona pass would only make sense for certain parts of the population only, e.g. the very old and those with other chronic illnesses.