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It may be true for few weeks or so, but if this continues the fallout will be widespread. Lower wage jobs is the bedrock of the whole economy. How much lawyerin

It may be true for few weeks or so, but if this continues the fallout will be widespread. Lower wage jobs is the bedrock of the whole economy. How much lawyering can you do if you have to take care of your own food prep, childcare, or - simply put - your clients start disappearing one by one because they cannot pay? How much longer you can continue to pay to the banking staff if mortgages and business loans default like house of cards? How much longer can you pay to programmers at Facebook when advertisers like restaurants, spas, hotels are not paying for advertising?...

disgruntledphd2 7y ago
Advertising is an incredibly recession resistant industry. Especially for FB and Goog, as they use second-price auctions, so anyone who measures their results will see performance improvement, make more money and thus (theoretically) invest more in advertising until it is no longer profitable. They'll lose some revenue, but it won't be anything ridiculously large; and even if it is, some of the previously priced out advertisers (less profitable mobile games, for instance) will return. Advertising is a hell of a business, especially online.
- nojvek 7y ago
  Google stock has fallen significantly since its highs. So has FB. MSFT has been doing well because of cloud and Teams. Airlines are heavy advertisers and their industry is crushed. We’ll see the next quarterly results. I bet at-least 30% revenue quarterly loss compared to last year. The economy is very intertwined. Especially when people start defaulting on mortgages en-masse. The 2 trillion stimulation hasn’t yet started sending out cheques to those who need it. Banks haven’t figured out how to loan to businesses that need it. The worst death count / day of virus is still to come. People can may be weather one or two months, after that. Shit will really hit the fan.
  - disgruntledphd2 7y ago
    Stock prices are mostly bullshit. US equities (particularly growth stocks) have been massively over-valued for years, because of low interest rates and QE. Nontheless,they have a good business model and will most likely be fine (even if they show no revenue growth, they make a lot of money). If you're suggesting 30% revenue loss relative to last year, that's probably flat to -10% revenue for each of them, which in the midst of a global pandemic is pretty good. Like, things are going to be really bad for a whole lot of people, on that we agree. However, i continue to believe that Goog and FB's businesses will weather the storm a lot better than most other technology companies.

disgruntledphd2 7y ago

Advertising is an incredibly recession resistant industry. Especially for FB and Goog, as they use second-price auctions, so anyone who measures their results will see performance improvement, make more money and thus (theoretically) invest more in advertising until it is no longer profitable. They'll lose some revenue, but it won't be anything ridiculously large; and even if it is, some of the previously priced out advertisers (less profitable mobile games, for instance) will return. Advertising is a hell of a business, especially online.

nojvek 7y ago
Google stock has fallen significantly since its highs. So has FB. MSFT has been doing well because of cloud and Teams. Airlines are heavy advertisers and their industry is crushed. We’ll see the next quarterly results. I bet at-least 30% revenue quarterly loss compared to last year. The economy is very intertwined. Especially when people start defaulting on mortgages en-masse. The 2 trillion stimulation hasn’t yet started sending out cheques to those who need it. Banks haven’t figured out how to loan to businesses that need it. The worst death count / day of virus is still to come. People can may be weather one or two months, after that. Shit will really hit the fan.
- disgruntledphd2 7y ago
  Stock prices are mostly bullshit. US equities (particularly growth stocks) have been massively over-valued for years, because of low interest rates and QE. Nontheless,they have a good business model and will most likely be fine (even if they show no revenue growth, they make a lot of money). If you're suggesting 30% revenue loss relative to last year, that's probably flat to -10% revenue for each of them, which in the midst of a global pandemic is pretty good. Like, things are going to be really bad for a whole lot of people, on that we agree. However, i continue to believe that Goog and FB's businesses will weather the storm a lot better than most other technology companies.