5 ms·

The worst part of this to me is that we could have used the time that China bought with their lockdown to mobilize ourselves. Instead, we didn't. Also, the US'

The worst part of this to me is that we could have used the time that China bought with their lockdown to mobilize ourselves. Instead, we didn't. Also, the US's lockdown seems liable to be more porous than China's.

DataWorker 7y ago
We had more important stuff going on like an impeachment, Democrat primaries and the Super Bowl. And our vaunted journalists were busy crushing rumors that the virus would spread beyond China, or be worse than the flu. Thanks to those compelling news pieces on xenophobia and how travel bans don’t work, how masks don’t work, how we should eat out in Chinatown to combat trump’s white nationalist agenda (pbs I’m looking at you) thanks to the media and their focus on how masks don’t work and how travel bans don’t work, thanks to all that we squandered the chance we had. We were too busy morning Kobe Bryant cause that’s what nbc told us was important.
ericjang 7y ago
Having this level of foresight and the guts to risk millions of unemployed workers for a "maybe scenario" is rare. If you were running the country, or were the governor of a coastal state like NY/CA, at what precise date would you have started ramping up ventilator&mask production? Would you have instituted a statewide lockdown when there were 1-2 cases in California? Would you be willing to trade certain unemployment and economic unproductivity for 2+ months, in exchange for the possibility that you might end up like Italy instead of Taiwan/South Korea? The last datapoint we had was SARS-Cov-1, which ended up not becoming a huge pandemic. Of course, the disease characteristics for SARS-Cov-2 are different, but without the benefit of hindsight, was the decision really that clear? Incompetent US administration aside, the financial markets - which can be thought of as an expensive forecasting computer - certainly did not price in what would happen, so I'm not sure we can expect policymakers to arrive at far-superior decision making. Considering that China is not completely out of the woods yet either, and the US/Italy lags about 1 month behind them in pandemic progression, how would you advise the US act now, with the knowledge of what China is doing?
- roywiggins 7y ago
  I'm not talking about locking down early, I'm talking about starting a crash program to produce masks and tests, organizing a national system to redirect resources like masks and ventilators, etc. If we had the testing capacity we have now a month ago, we would be in a much better position. We didn't know how much it was spreading in the US because we weren't testing cases that didn't have a nexus to China/SK. So we had no idea what the spread was like and there was no data to go on to inform decisions to lock down. Seattle only got there early because some local flu researchers disobeyed their own IRB rules and tested cases for the virus without approval. California seems to have gotten the lockdown about as early as was practical and has done much better than NYC, so they're actually doing well, all things considered.
  - ericjang 7y ago
    I'm talking about starting a crash program to produce masks and tests, organizing a national system to redirect resources like masks and ventilators, etc. Pretend for a second that you're Andrew Cuomo on January 1, 2020. What information would you have to justify this crash program? Pretend that you're Andrew Cuomo on April 4, 2020. You're aware of what stage China is in. What would you do differently?
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - mercer 7y ago
      > Pretend that you're Andrew Cuomo on April 4, 2020. You're aware of what stage China is in. What would you do differently? I would not make cuts to Medicaid, for one.
    - roywiggins 7y ago
      I don't know. He was hamstrung by federal rules on tests, for instance. NY was not allowed to go it on their own. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/03/coronavirus-cdc-test-kits-public-health-labs/?arc404=true https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/03/cor...
maxerickson 7y ago
The global spread pretty clearly happened before China locked down in late January. Singapore starts screening inbound travelers January 3: https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/precautionary-measures-in-response-to-severe-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/precautionary... China locks down epicenter of Wuhan outbreak January 23: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1ZM1G9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1... The initial response in China was to try to cover it up, only after it was out of control did they start locking things down.

DataWorker 7y ago

We had more important stuff going on like an impeachment, Democrat primaries and the Super Bowl. And our vaunted journalists were busy crushing rumors that the virus would spread beyond China, or be worse than the flu. Thanks to those compelling news pieces on xenophobia and how travel bans don’t work, how masks don’t work, how we should eat out in Chinatown to combat trump’s white nationalist agenda (pbs I’m looking at you) thanks to the media and their focus on how masks don’t work and how travel bans don’t work, thanks to all that we squandered the chance we had. We were too busy morning Kobe Bryant cause that’s what nbc told us was important.

ericjang 7y ago

Having this level of foresight and the guts to risk millions of unemployed workers for a "maybe scenario" is rare. If you were running the country, or were the governor of a coastal state like NY/CA, at what precise date would you have started ramping up ventilator&mask production? Would you have instituted a statewide lockdown when there were 1-2 cases in California? Would you be willing to trade certain unemployment and economic unproductivity for 2+ months, in exchange for the possibility that you might end up like Italy instead of Taiwan/South Korea? The last datapoint we had was SARS-Cov-1, which ended up not becoming a huge pandemic. Of course, the disease characteristics for SARS-Cov-2 are different, but without the benefit of hindsight, was the decision really that clear? Incompetent US administration aside, the financial markets - which can be thought of as an expensive forecasting computer - certainly did not price in what would happen, so I'm not sure we can expect policymakers to arrive at far-superior decision making. Considering that China is not completely out of the woods yet either, and the US/Italy lags about 1 month behind them in pandemic progression, how would you advise the US act now, with the knowledge of what China is doing?

roywiggins 7y ago
I'm not talking about locking down early, I'm talking about starting a crash program to produce masks and tests, organizing a national system to redirect resources like masks and ventilators, etc. If we had the testing capacity we have now a month ago, we would be in a much better position. We didn't know how much it was spreading in the US because we weren't testing cases that didn't have a nexus to China/SK. So we had no idea what the spread was like and there was no data to go on to inform decisions to lock down. Seattle only got there early because some local flu researchers disobeyed their own IRB rules and tested cases for the virus without approval. California seems to have gotten the lockdown about as early as was practical and has done much better than NYC, so they're actually doing well, all things considered.
- ericjang 7y ago
  I'm talking about starting a crash program to produce masks and tests, organizing a national system to redirect resources like masks and ventilators, etc. Pretend for a second that you're Andrew Cuomo on January 1, 2020. What information would you have to justify this crash program? Pretend that you're Andrew Cuomo on April 4, 2020. You're aware of what stage China is in. What would you do differently?
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - mercer 7y ago
    > Pretend that you're Andrew Cuomo on April 4, 2020. You're aware of what stage China is in. What would you do differently? I would not make cuts to Medicaid, for one.
  - roywiggins 7y ago
    I don't know. He was hamstrung by federal rules on tests, for instance. NY was not allowed to go it on their own. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/03/coronavirus-cdc-test-kits-public-health-labs/?arc404=true https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/03/cor...

maxerickson 7y ago

The global spread pretty clearly happened before China locked down in late January. Singapore starts screening inbound travelers January 3: https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/precautionary-measures-in-response-to-severe-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/precautionary... China locks down epicenter of Wuhan outbreak January 23: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1ZM1G9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1... The initial response in China was to try to cover it up, only after it was out of control did they start locking things down.