The question we have to ask, is as an at-risk person, do you have a higher chance of contracting the disease over the course of its activity if you are quaranti

The question we have to ask, is as an at-risk person, do you have a higher chance of contracting the disease over the course of its activity if you are quarantined for two months but most people aren't, or if everyone is quarantined for a year? I.e. if during quarantine you need to interact with people once per week to get groceries, etc., and there is only a partial quarantine, many people will be carriers, so each time you go out you have a 5% chance of contracting the virus. Your chance of contracting it during this time is 1 - 0.95^9 ~= 37%. In the full quarantine, fewer people are carriers at a given time, but the virus will be in circulation longer. So let's say there is a 1% chance of getting it every time you go out. Your chance of contracting it during this time is 1 - 0.99^52 ~= 40%. This is a simplified model that doesn't account for the way the percentage changes over time, but it makes a valid point. So the odds of each at-risk person contracting the disease may not be much higher (or possibly even lower) in a partial quarantine, even though more people overall are getting it and over a smaller time period (pressuring hospitals). The advantage being that the world continues to function during this time.