4 ms·

This is misguided. The capacity of the healthcare system in rural areas will be even easier to overwhelm.

by danharaj 7y ago

gnulinux 7y ago
Of course it's misguided. Which country handled this crisis worse than US? Misguided is an understatement.
- danharaj 7y ago
  If I use the words that I think are appropriate for the obstinate middlebrow skepticism of HN in the face of an uncontrolled pandemic, I get flagged :^)
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- dylz 7y ago
  Maybe Brazil? > "We're all going to die one day"[0] > “I’m sorry, some people will die, they will die, that’s life,” Bolsonaro said in a television interview on Friday night. “You can’t stop a car factory because of traffic deaths.”[1] > Bolsonaro has compared the new coronavirus to a "little flu," condemned the reaction to it as "hysteria," and said Brazilians' immune systems are so strong they can swim in raw sewage and "don't catch a thing."[2] > He has called the virus a “measly cold.” “Some will die” from it, he said, because “such is life.” [3] > ..more than 20 members of Bolsonaro’s U.S. delegation have tested positive for the coronavirus. Bolsonaro ignored his own health ministry’s advice to self-isolate for a couple of weeks and to discourage large gatherings. He made a defiant show of shaking hands and taking selfies at a rally that attracted hundreds of his supporters. [4] [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-bolsonaro-downplays-coronavirus-risks-were-all-going-to-die-one-day-2020-03-29 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-bolsonaro-downplay... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/27/world/americas/27reuters-health-coronavirus-brazil.html https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/27/world/americas/27... [2] https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/bolsonaro-takes-down-virus-shortage-video-after-uproar-doc-1qb8pu2 https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/bolsonaro-takes-down-virus-sh... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/americas/brazil-bol... [4] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/bolsonaro-coronavirus-denial-brazil-trump/608926/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/bolsona...
- fourmyle 7y ago
  Our death rate per capita is substantially lower than China and Italy for example.
  - danharaj 7y ago
    Y'all need to understand what an exponential function looks like.
    - fourmyle 7y ago
      Y’all need to not compare absolute case numbers on an exponential curve between countries with vastly different populations.
  - godelski 7y ago
    I find it odd that people are comparing "worst" by number of cases and not accounting population. The US has 320mn people while Italy has 60.5, Spain has 46.8, and Germany has 83.8. These are the countries with the most cases and by population the US is doing the best out of all of them and Spain the worst. If we look at deaths, Germany is only slightly better than the US but Spain and Italy are each much higher. The US sure has a lot of problems, but that doesn't mean everything we do is the worst.
    - danharaj 7y ago
      The US spread is a few weeks behind the other countries. People are projecting based on incubation time and mitigation response what will happen. The US growth rate is on track to make everyone else look peachy keen.
      - fourmyle 7y ago
        I doubt there is any definitively proven date of the start of the spread. It very well could have started sooner than claims.
- eanzenberg 7y ago
  Every one except SK Israel and perhaps Germany.
Analemma_ 7y ago
New York has 1,600 ICU beds; there are a bunch of counties in rural America that have zero. The CFR in these counties if the virus gets out of hand will be appalling.
013a 7y ago
I think, actually, this statement is misguided, for a couple reasons. Its very likely that people are underestimating the average city's "hospital beds per capita" metric; frankly, a ton of people live in the average city (duh). Are there enough beds in many of America's tier-2 (say, Austin) and tier-3 (say, Cleveland) cities to cover all of the population? By comparison, outside of cities, the spread will be far, far slower than within. Yes, healthcare is worse, but there's an order of magnitude fewer cases. People travel less. They go to the store once every two weeks, not every 4 days, even when there isn't a quarantine. They don't visit the new hipster restaurant down the street. They don't live twenty feet away from their neighbors. NYC has 25% of all of the United State's cases, despite having ~2% of the US's population. This is the same story that is playing out in every state. Let's take Indiana as an example, being that they're having a relatively moderate outbreak with mostly rural areas surrounding a top 15 US city by population: Indianapolis has 41% of the state's cases, despite representing ~12% of the state's population. This shouldn't be a surprise; diseases spread faster in cities. But, what you're asserting is that, eventually, rural areas will see the same spread that cities are. This feels misguided. That isn't to say that some, or even most, rural hospitals wont be "running hot" for a really long time, and that the virus wont spread and these areas, but its simply unlikely that the situation will ever be as bad as in major cities.
- danharaj 7y ago
  My position is based on the unpredictability of exponential phenomena and the fact that the healthcare system in rural areas has been in the process of being hollowed out for quite some time. The incubation period of COVID-19 (estimated median 6 days last I checked?), coupled with the fact that most people who carry it are asymptomatic means that it's only a matter of time before it hits rural areas whose capacity is like, what? 0.5 ICU beds per county? If you need a ventilator out there you're gonna fucking die.
  - nradov 7y ago
    The majority of COVID-19 patients who need a ventilator are going to die regardless of whether they actually get a ventilator or not. Hopefully that will change as more effective treatments are developed, but that's the current reality. By all means let's do whatever it takes to deploy more ventilators, but they're not a panacea.

This is misguided. The capacity of the healthcare system in rural areas will be even easier to overwhelm.

gnulinux 7y ago

Of course it's misguided. Which country handled this crisis worse than US? Misguided is an understatement.

danharaj 7y ago
If I use the words that I think are appropriate for the obstinate middlebrow skepticism of HN in the face of an uncontrolled pandemic, I get flagged :^)
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
dylz 7y ago
Maybe Brazil? > "We're all going to die one day"[0] > “I’m sorry, some people will die, they will die, that’s life,” Bolsonaro said in a television interview on Friday night. “You can’t stop a car factory because of traffic deaths.”[1] > Bolsonaro has compared the new coronavirus to a "little flu," condemned the reaction to it as "hysteria," and said Brazilians' immune systems are so strong they can swim in raw sewage and "don't catch a thing."[2] > He has called the virus a “measly cold.” “Some will die” from it, he said, because “such is life.” [3] > ..more than 20 members of Bolsonaro’s U.S. delegation have tested positive for the coronavirus. Bolsonaro ignored his own health ministry’s advice to self-isolate for a couple of weeks and to discourage large gatherings. He made a defiant show of shaking hands and taking selfies at a rally that attracted hundreds of his supporters. [4] [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-bolsonaro-downplays-coronavirus-risks-were-all-going-to-die-one-day-2020-03-29 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazils-bolsonaro-downplay... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/27/world/americas/27reuters-health-coronavirus-brazil.html https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/27/world/americas/27... [2] https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/bolsonaro-takes-down-virus-shortage-video-after-uproar-doc-1qb8pu2 https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/bolsonaro-takes-down-virus-sh... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/world/americas/brazil-bol... [4] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/bolsonaro-coronavirus-denial-brazil-trump/608926/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/bolsona...
fourmyle 7y ago
Our death rate per capita is substantially lower than China and Italy for example.
- danharaj 7y ago
  Y'all need to understand what an exponential function looks like.
  - fourmyle 7y ago
    Y’all need to not compare absolute case numbers on an exponential curve between countries with vastly different populations.
- godelski 7y ago
  I find it odd that people are comparing "worst" by number of cases and not accounting population. The US has 320mn people while Italy has 60.5, Spain has 46.8, and Germany has 83.8. These are the countries with the most cases and by population the US is doing the best out of all of them and Spain the worst. If we look at deaths, Germany is only slightly better than the US but Spain and Italy are each much higher. The US sure has a lot of problems, but that doesn't mean everything we do is the worst.
  - danharaj 7y ago
    The US spread is a few weeks behind the other countries. People are projecting based on incubation time and mitigation response what will happen. The US growth rate is on track to make everyone else look peachy keen.
    - fourmyle 7y ago
      I doubt there is any definitively proven date of the start of the spread. It very well could have started sooner than claims.
eanzenberg 7y ago
Every one except SK Israel and perhaps Germany.

Analemma_ 7y ago

New York has 1,600 ICU beds; there are a bunch of counties in rural America that have zero. The CFR in these counties if the virus gets out of hand will be appalling.

013a 7y ago

I think, actually, this statement is misguided, for a couple reasons. Its very likely that people are underestimating the average city's "hospital beds per capita" metric; frankly, a ton of people live in the average city (duh). Are there enough beds in many of America's tier-2 (say, Austin) and tier-3 (say, Cleveland) cities to cover all of the population? By comparison, outside of cities, the spread will be far, far slower than within. Yes, healthcare is worse, but there's an order of magnitude fewer cases. People travel less. They go to the store once every two weeks, not every 4 days, even when there isn't a quarantine. They don't visit the new hipster restaurant down the street. They don't live twenty feet away from their neighbors. NYC has 25% of all of the United State's cases, despite having ~2% of the US's population. This is the same story that is playing out in every state. Let's take Indiana as an example, being that they're having a relatively moderate outbreak with mostly rural areas surrounding a top 15 US city by population: Indianapolis has 41% of the state's cases, despite representing ~12% of the state's population. This shouldn't be a surprise; diseases spread faster in cities. But, what you're asserting is that, eventually, rural areas will see the same spread that cities are. This feels misguided. That isn't to say that some, or even most, rural hospitals wont be "running hot" for a really long time, and that the virus wont spread and these areas, but its simply unlikely that the situation will ever be as bad as in major cities.

danharaj 7y ago
My position is based on the unpredictability of exponential phenomena and the fact that the healthcare system in rural areas has been in the process of being hollowed out for quite some time. The incubation period of COVID-19 (estimated median 6 days last I checked?), coupled with the fact that most people who carry it are asymptomatic means that it's only a matter of time before it hits rural areas whose capacity is like, what? 0.5 ICU beds per county? If you need a ventilator out there you're gonna fucking die.
- nradov 7y ago
  The majority of COVID-19 patients who need a ventilator are going to die regardless of whether they actually get a ventilator or not. Hopefully that will change as more effective treatments are developed, but that's the current reality. By all means let's do whatever it takes to deploy more ventilators, but they're not a panacea.