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Unfortunately there is no evidence to suggest that the US will get out of this anywhere as quickly or efficiently as China. On the contrary, so far it appears

Unfortunately there is no evidence to suggest that the US will get out of this anywhere as quickly or efficiently as China. On the contrary, so far it appears US cases will peak much higher and later than in China, and a lack of resources at the state and local level will massively slow any subsequent recovery.

nostromo 7y ago
Nobody has any idea what is actually happening in China, and most of the numbers are more propagandistic than informative, so we should probably just stop speculating entirely. The best numbers I've seen for projecting US cases and deaths honestly seem to be pretty good: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections This projects less than 100k deaths in the US this year. Compare that to heart disease (largely preventable) at 650k a year. That'd also make it only about 5 times worse than a bad flu year. (Edit: thanks for the correction below; if correct, this would be only about 2 times worse than a bad flu year.)
- StrangeDoctor 7y ago
  I also like this model but be careful with it. That’s just the first wave, and this assumes we adhere to strict social distancing in all states.
- sundaeofshock 7y ago
  100,000 dead in three months is not “pretty good”. Honestly, I don’t understand the casualness that people seem to have around the number of deaths. “It’s not that bad” is such a callous take.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    Are you incapable of understanding relative terms? Compared to the millions of people dead in the US that many were projecting just a few days and weeks ago, this is indeed good -- in fact, very good, because it seems many fewer people will die.
    - sundaeofshock 7y ago
      100,000 - 250,000 dead is not something to celebrate. It is a reflection of the failure by the current administration to take this seriously all the way back in January. That number would be much lower if proper steps were taken back then. Also, that 100,000 assumes everyone in the country follows proper physical distancing, hand washing, etc. Last I checked, the state of Florida is still allowing for church services during their "lock-down".
      - RickJWagner 7y ago
        Your post reveals that you are viewing things through a political lens. It's true the administration could have acted sooner. It's also true the opposite party was smearing 'racism' and 'xenophobia' even as shutting flights down was obviously the right move. This is not a scenario where any politician can claim to have done better. In fact, world-wide we have seen a variety of responses, with no definitive answer on what has been good and what has been bad. It's a horrible situation for any national leader. As to the number of dead.... it is what it is. Is it good? Certainly not. Could it be worse? Certainly. Does anyone have all the optimal answers. Certainly not.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
- almost_usual 7y ago
  This is with extreme social distancing measures. We’re in “virus time” now and there will not be an end until a vaccine is manufactured and distributed. On again off again quarantines are now ‘normal’.
- xscott 7y ago
  2017-2018 was a bad flu season at 61k US deaths. So, if this turns out to be 100k, it's not 5 times worse than that.
  - gremlinsinc 7y ago
    Experts estimated we'd be at 20k cases roughly by March 31st...we were at like 200-300k... so yeah experts don't know much either on how this will turn out. Some of the states not taking it seriously will drive numbers way up beyond experts best guesses. Best way to guage the toll is take a glance at deaths in 2019 vs 2020 and the difference is covid-19 related. Even if it's a heart attack who couldn't get into the ER because it was full...etc..
- 01100011 7y ago
  Death rates really don't capture the full picture. What if zero people died from the disease directly, but it still caused painful illness with possible long term complications and overwhelmed health care systems? The economy would still be shut down. Social distancing would still be in place. The economic damage has very little to do with how many people die, and very much to do with how many people are unwilling or unable to participate in the economy.
  - xscott 7y ago
    Do you know anywhere that is reporting stats on how many people are maimed by this?
    - 01100011 7y ago
      I haven't seen it but I'm guessing that won't show up until next year. I'd figure that people who survive the virus and can breathe on their own have to wait for follow up since resources are tight.
- orwin 7y ago
  This is with lockdown in place. No lockdown and you could aim for 600 to 2M death in the US alone. ten to twenty time a bad flue year. Also some people are out of the ICU (at least in France) and will have to do 3 to 6 month of reeducation for the best cases. For the worst cases (still in ICU at the moment, at least in Colmar), its 20 years shoved off (lung fibrosis), one of them is younger than me. I guarantee you lethality might be what we're talking about now, but next year it will become secondary.
  - orwin 7y ago
    Can't edit anymore (too late) I was wrong, fibrosis did not only appear in ICU patients, but also in patients who were healthy enough to stay home. This is shittier than i thought.
JPKab 7y ago
My coworker's whole family lives in Beijing. Her father died recently. He suddenly was having a hard time breathing, was brought to hospital, and by then his blood oxygen was far below normal. They refused to test him for COVID19. She told me this. Her facial expression was utter shock, and she told me her mom's grief has been multiplied by the fact that the government doesn't want to be honest about his real cause of death. People who believe the data coming from China is accurate are ignoring the recent history on transparency around this disease from the CCP. I just don't understand it. Sure, the country where police arrested the first doctors to publicly state it was human to human transmissible is being completely honest. Wow. Two things can be true at the same time: Trump administration has done poorly AND the CCP is culpable, lying, and made the situation much worse. But in the US political system, there is no tolerance for distraction from hating the opposition party. You can only blame Trump, and saying bad things about China is "just racist and mean. They did such a great job, they say they have contained it. We didn't because the bad orange man didn't do his job." Yeah, meanwhile, those of us living in reality know that Trump and the CDC/FDA suck, AND the CCP does too. And yeah, maybe, just maybe, if the US news media had dedicated 1/20th the coverage they gave to the impeachment to the virus, the government would have been held accountable to start acting then. I was travelling internationally, and when I got back home in early February, I was shocked at how little CNN and MSNBC were talking about the virus. Basically zero. And Fox only talked about it in the context of the impeachment distracting from it. When governments fail, we hope that the free press will hold them accountable, and there's no reason they couldn't have done that earlier. No, the red vs. blue team sports are just too good for ratings to talk about things that actually matter.
- RickJWagner 7y ago
  I don't think you're being fair. Remember how Trump was roundly criticized as 'racist' and 'xenophobic' for stopping flights? The Democrats have to own that one, their answers were flawed and would have cost lives as well. But really-- nobody has all the optimal answers. War is hell.
  - yodon 7y ago
    Trump reacted late, and by the time he acted he was slamming the barn door after the horse had left (or more accurately after the horse was inside the barn). The virus came across on flights from Europe just as fast and just as damagingly as it did from China. You can't stop a pandemic like this at your borders. Trying to do so just prevents the flow of critical people and materials and distracts resources from more effective responses. Testing and social distancing were the steps that were needed on day one. They didn't happen fast enough and aren't happening fast enough. It is not politicizing things to state the fact that his responses have been slow and poorly informed.

nostromo 7y ago

Nobody has any idea what is actually happening in China, and most of the numbers are more propagandistic than informative, so we should probably just stop speculating entirely. The best numbers I've seen for projecting US cases and deaths honestly seem to be pretty good: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections This projects less than 100k deaths in the US this year. Compare that to heart disease (largely preventable) at 650k a year. That'd also make it only about 5 times worse than a bad flu year. (Edit: thanks for the correction below; if correct, this would be only about 2 times worse than a bad flu year.)

StrangeDoctor 7y ago
I also like this model but be careful with it. That’s just the first wave, and this assumes we adhere to strict social distancing in all states.
sundaeofshock 7y ago
100,000 dead in three months is not “pretty good”. Honestly, I don’t understand the casualness that people seem to have around the number of deaths. “It’s not that bad” is such a callous take.
- nostromo 7y ago
  Are you incapable of understanding relative terms? Compared to the millions of people dead in the US that many were projecting just a few days and weeks ago, this is indeed good -- in fact, very good, because it seems many fewer people will die.
  - sundaeofshock 7y ago
    100,000 - 250,000 dead is not something to celebrate. It is a reflection of the failure by the current administration to take this seriously all the way back in January. That number would be much lower if proper steps were taken back then. Also, that 100,000 assumes everyone in the country follows proper physical distancing, hand washing, etc. Last I checked, the state of Florida is still allowing for church services during their "lock-down".
    - RickJWagner 7y ago
      Your post reveals that you are viewing things through a political lens. It's true the administration could have acted sooner. It's also true the opposite party was smearing 'racism' and 'xenophobia' even as shutting flights down was obviously the right move. This is not a scenario where any politician can claim to have done better. In fact, world-wide we have seen a variety of responses, with no definitive answer on what has been good and what has been bad. It's a horrible situation for any national leader. As to the number of dead.... it is what it is. Is it good? Certainly not. Could it be worse? Certainly. Does anyone have all the optimal answers. Certainly not.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
almost_usual 7y ago
This is with extreme social distancing measures. We’re in “virus time” now and there will not be an end until a vaccine is manufactured and distributed. On again off again quarantines are now ‘normal’.
xscott 7y ago
2017-2018 was a bad flu season at 61k US deaths. So, if this turns out to be 100k, it's not 5 times worse than that.
- gremlinsinc 7y ago
  Experts estimated we'd be at 20k cases roughly by March 31st...we were at like 200-300k... so yeah experts don't know much either on how this will turn out. Some of the states not taking it seriously will drive numbers way up beyond experts best guesses. Best way to guage the toll is take a glance at deaths in 2019 vs 2020 and the difference is covid-19 related. Even if it's a heart attack who couldn't get into the ER because it was full...etc..
01100011 7y ago
Death rates really don't capture the full picture. What if zero people died from the disease directly, but it still caused painful illness with possible long term complications and overwhelmed health care systems? The economy would still be shut down. Social distancing would still be in place. The economic damage has very little to do with how many people die, and very much to do with how many people are unwilling or unable to participate in the economy.
- xscott 7y ago
  Do you know anywhere that is reporting stats on how many people are maimed by this?
  - 01100011 7y ago
    I haven't seen it but I'm guessing that won't show up until next year. I'd figure that people who survive the virus and can breathe on their own have to wait for follow up since resources are tight.
orwin 7y ago
This is with lockdown in place. No lockdown and you could aim for 600 to 2M death in the US alone. ten to twenty time a bad flue year. Also some people are out of the ICU (at least in France) and will have to do 3 to 6 month of reeducation for the best cases. For the worst cases (still in ICU at the moment, at least in Colmar), its 20 years shoved off (lung fibrosis), one of them is younger than me. I guarantee you lethality might be what we're talking about now, but next year it will become secondary.
- orwin 7y ago
  Can't edit anymore (too late) I was wrong, fibrosis did not only appear in ICU patients, but also in patients who were healthy enough to stay home. This is shittier than i thought.

JPKab 7y ago

My coworker's whole family lives in Beijing. Her father died recently. He suddenly was having a hard time breathing, was brought to hospital, and by then his blood oxygen was far below normal. They refused to test him for COVID19. She told me this. Her facial expression was utter shock, and she told me her mom's grief has been multiplied by the fact that the government doesn't want to be honest about his real cause of death. People who believe the data coming from China is accurate are ignoring the recent history on transparency around this disease from the CCP. I just don't understand it. Sure, the country where police arrested the first doctors to publicly state it was human to human transmissible is being completely honest. Wow. Two things can be true at the same time: Trump administration has done poorly AND the CCP is culpable, lying, and made the situation much worse. But in the US political system, there is no tolerance for distraction from hating the opposition party. You can only blame Trump, and saying bad things about China is "just racist and mean. They did such a great job, they say they have contained it. We didn't because the bad orange man didn't do his job." Yeah, meanwhile, those of us living in reality know that Trump and the CDC/FDA suck, AND the CCP does too. And yeah, maybe, just maybe, if the US news media had dedicated 1/20th the coverage they gave to the impeachment to the virus, the government would have been held accountable to start acting then. I was travelling internationally, and when I got back home in early February, I was shocked at how little CNN and MSNBC were talking about the virus. Basically zero. And Fox only talked about it in the context of the impeachment distracting from it. When governments fail, we hope that the free press will hold them accountable, and there's no reason they couldn't have done that earlier. No, the red vs. blue team sports are just too good for ratings to talk about things that actually matter.

RickJWagner 7y ago
I don't think you're being fair. Remember how Trump was roundly criticized as 'racist' and 'xenophobic' for stopping flights? The Democrats have to own that one, their answers were flawed and would have cost lives as well. But really-- nobody has all the optimal answers. War is hell.
- yodon 7y ago
  Trump reacted late, and by the time he acted he was slamming the barn door after the horse had left (or more accurately after the horse was inside the barn). The virus came across on flights from Europe just as fast and just as damagingly as it did from China. You can't stop a pandemic like this at your borders. Trying to do so just prevents the flow of critical people and materials and distracts resources from more effective responses. Testing and social distancing were the steps that were needed on day one. They didn't happen fast enough and aren't happening fast enough. It is not politicizing things to state the fact that his responses have been slow and poorly informed.