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> I am a little wary that there’s a climate connection being made which could also be explained by other things It's not well explained by other things in all
by adventured 7y ago
> I am a little wary that there’s a climate connection being made which could also be explained by other things
It's not well explained by other things in all regions when taken comprehensively, that's the far larger issue. Your premise doesn't hold when you include the large number of other cities and areas that are seeing a similar pattern due to higher temps. Which is why multiple studies are reaching this conclusion.
Las Vegas should have an enormous number of cases, given its international traffic, or general traffic from within the US, along with its large casinos & large number of casino workers. It reacted slow to the virus, shutting the city and casinos down late. It should be a super spreader metro. Instead, it has two dozen deaths and a thousand cases, with no indication of a big surge happening as in NYC.
Check out Reno NV (425k population metro). It's practically barren of cases.
California and Texas should have dramatically larger numbers. California was hit earlier than NY was. Neither of those states were effectively approaching the virus like South Korea and Singapore did. That isn't down to lack of enough testing, the proof is in the lack of dead bodies and hospitalizations (which are both being reported; and we have enough testing now to know more definitely what's going on state by state).
Look at New Mexico's numbers: 315 cases (against 12,925 negative tests, an extreme +/- ratio), 24 hospitalized, 4 deaths. That's broadly what Mexico is seeing as well.
At a time when New York is seeing hundreds of daily deaths. Texas has 41 total and that's maybe rising by 5 to 7 daily.
Look at Virginia Beach. 65 cases, 1 death. The Virginia Beach metro has 1.7 million people. Look at Norfolk VA, similarly very low. Richmond Virginia, 1.2 million people in the metro with ~100 cases and only a few deaths. Now, assume these numbers are off by 5-10x, they're still low.
Virginia with 8.5 million people has had a total of 165 hospitalizations and 27 deaths (the latest figures from the state). It's seeing no great surge in cases. That's not due to a hyper effective program they put into place like South Korea. It has a climate that the virus likes less than states like Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
Look at Raleigh North Carolina (1.21 million people in the metro). ~200 cases, zero deaths. Charlotte (2.5m people) is fairing a bit worse, with ... 420 cases and a few deaths. No surge is going on. North Carolina as a state has 1,500 cases, 157 hospitalizations, 8 deaths, with 10m people. Similar to Virginia in outcome.
Look at Augusta Georgia, metro population of 600k and Savannah Georgia, metro population of 400k. Very few cases or hospitalizations.
The Charleston South Carolina metro has 715,000 people. One death, 150-200 cases for the area.
The Atlanta metro has six million people. It has around a thousand cases (aggressively counting the wider area), two dozen deaths, and isn't seeing the NYC type surge.
Several of the major cities in Florida (eg Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando) are seeing very low per capita rates of infection, hospitalization and death.
And so on.
- smcl 7y agoAs I said I hope you are right. I guess we will see in a few weeks time how the rest of the USA, and places like India and sub-Saharan Africa manage. I am not optimistic
- rwmurrayVT 7y agoThe weather in Hampton Roads recently has been "decent". I wouldn't call it warm for more than a couple of days recently. It's definitely not been humid.