8 ms·

Why is there no major outbreak in India? One would expect it given the high population density.

by chvid 7y ago

sn41 7y ago
India was testing only 18 per million, until even 5 days back [1]. In comparison, South Korea did about 6900 tests per million. The true infection figures for India may become clearer only in the coming weeks. [1] https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-depth/with-just-18-tests-per-million-of-population-why-indias-low-testing-rate-for-coronavirus-is-worrying/ar-BB11LWBk https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-depth/with-just-18-tests-p...
- rinka_singh 7y ago
  Here's what is happening and what the Govt response will be in the near future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFSuxQhURuU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFSuxQhURuU
livealife 7y ago
I strongly believe that food habits is an important factor. Most of friends are from India and they eat non vegetarian food occasionally.
- smcl 7y ago
  There is a lot of uncertainty and confusion about covid-19. However nobody is suggesting it is spread or aggravated by a diet that involves meat.
Legogris 7y ago
We have no idea if there is any major outbreak in India or not right now. Absence of evidence != Evidence of absence
- elorant 7y ago
  If there was an outbreak there would be bodies piling up somewhere.
  - mkl 7y ago
    It takes time to die of it. The true size of an untested outbreak would only be visible well after it's established.
    - notahacker 7y ago
      Also, the visibility is somewhat more limited in India on the basis that much of the most vulnerable population wouldn't access the healthcare system anyway and the symptoms wouldn't especially stand out in a country where regular pneumonia kills a child every couple of minutes.
      - rinka_singh 7y ago
        This is not the case anymore. Access is available especially since we know that leaving an infected person in the open will infect a lot others...
  - adrianN 7y ago
    I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't notice people dying in the slums.
    - elorant 7y ago
      In which case there would be quarantined areas. Haven't read anything in the news. I don't live in India, but I don't think that in an interconnected world something like that would go unnoticed.
    - hesarenu 7y ago
      i suppose you think in India corpse are rotting on streets with nobody to care
adventured 7y ago
Because it's 32 degrees in New Delhi, 33 degrees in Mumbai and 36 degrees in Hyderabad. This doesn't cease all transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it considerably reduces the rate of infections. The virus does not do well in higher temps (ideally with high humidity; which is why it's doing so very poorly in both Hawaii and Singapore, despite entirely different approaches to dealing with the virus). Singapore gets up to 32-33 degrees this time of year and Hawaii is at 25, which is enough. There is overwhelming evidence at this point that SARS-CoV-2 is slowed by temperatures over ~18 degrees. China and the US have both seen the same thing. Prior studies on influenza indicate that its transmission rate plunges over roughly 17-18 degrees. Which also matches what the MIT study (below) found looking at the infection data for this virus. There are two other recent studies mentioned below, that reach a similar conclusion. Here's China seeing the same thing: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Here's the US: "The results: In the most recent analysis, which used data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, two MIT post-docs in the civil engineering and cognitive science departments found that the maximum number of coronavirus transmissions has occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 and 13 °C during the outbreak. In contrast, countries with mean temperatures above 18 °C have seen fewer than 5% of total cases. This pattern also shows up within the US, where southern states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a slower growth rate than northern states like Washington, New York, and Colorado. California, which spans north and south, has a growth rate that falls in between." "Two other preprint papers have drawn similar conclusions. The first, posted on Monday by two researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of positive cases globally have thus far occurred at temperatures between -2 and 10 °C" https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread... Note: that publish date for the article is from March 19. The predicted results have not only continued to hold well globally, they have unfortunately proven to be a future forecast for what happened in NYC due to its climate.
- bwb 7y ago
  I am hopeful this all pans out, but there is nothing conclusive about this data yet from what the WHO/CDC have been saying. I just wanted to mention that because don't think summer weather is a miracle cure :)
bobsil1 7y ago
There’s a theory that the TB jab is protective. It’s being tested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-o...
- m0zg 7y ago
  If it is, then countries with BCG vaccination should see much lower fatality. Which, to first approximation, seems to hold, but it's too early to tell. FWIW both my wife and I have it. See map as to who else might: http://www.bcgatlas.org/ http://www.bcgatlas.org/ I've read India also gives hydroxychloroquine to their frontline medical staff as a prophylaxis, which could be helping as well. India makes a ton of pharmaceuticals, so at least they should be OK on the drugs side. Their healthcare is piss poor otherwise, however, so drugs are probably their only hope, with a population as high, and healthcare spending as low as they've got.
  - 7952 7y ago
    In a few countries it was introduced in the 1950s which would suggest that the over 70s may not have recieved the jab. And interestingly Italy has never had widespread vaccination.
- yread 7y ago
  Yes, there is this https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v...
owaislone 7y ago
I'm sure there is but it's not apparent yet because of long incubation period and the negligible amount of testing compared to the population. 25 people had died of Covid-19 till yesterday. 10 have died so far today and the day is not even over yet. I'm sure it's going to explode very soon unfortunately.
rinka_singh 7y ago
Here's one possible answer why: https://scroll.in/pulse/957883/did-india-overreact-covid-19-outbreak-isnt-following-the-trajectory-of-europe-and-china-so-far https://scroll.in/pulse/957883/did-india-overreact-covid-19-... Having given this link, it can be proven to be (tragically) wrong...

Why is there no major outbreak in India? One would expect it given the high population density.

by chvid 7y ago

Why is there no major outbreak in India? One would expect it given the high population density.

sn41 7y ago

India was testing only 18 per million, until even 5 days back [1]. In comparison, South Korea did about 6900 tests per million. The true infection figures for India may become clearer only in the coming weeks. [1] https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-depth/with-just-18-tests-per-million-of-population-why-indias-low-testing-rate-for-coronavirus-is-worrying/ar-BB11LWBk https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/in-depth/with-just-18-tests-p...

rinka_singh 7y ago
Here's what is happening and what the Govt response will be in the near future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFSuxQhURuU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFSuxQhURuU

livealife 7y ago

I strongly believe that food habits is an important factor. Most of friends are from India and they eat non vegetarian food occasionally.

smcl 7y ago
There is a lot of uncertainty and confusion about covid-19. However nobody is suggesting it is spread or aggravated by a diet that involves meat.

Legogris 7y ago

We have no idea if there is any major outbreak in India or not right now. Absence of evidence != Evidence of absence

elorant 7y ago
If there was an outbreak there would be bodies piling up somewhere.
- mkl 7y ago
  It takes time to die of it. The true size of an untested outbreak would only be visible well after it's established.
  - notahacker 7y ago
    Also, the visibility is somewhat more limited in India on the basis that much of the most vulnerable population wouldn't access the healthcare system anyway and the symptoms wouldn't especially stand out in a country where regular pneumonia kills a child every couple of minutes.
    - rinka_singh 7y ago
      This is not the case anymore. Access is available especially since we know that leaving an infected person in the open will infect a lot others...
- adrianN 7y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't notice people dying in the slums.
  - elorant 7y ago
    In which case there would be quarantined areas. Haven't read anything in the news. I don't live in India, but I don't think that in an interconnected world something like that would go unnoticed.
  - hesarenu 7y ago
    i suppose you think in India corpse are rotting on streets with nobody to care

adventured 7y ago

Because it's 32 degrees in New Delhi, 33 degrees in Mumbai and 36 degrees in Hyderabad. This doesn't cease all transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it considerably reduces the rate of infections. The virus does not do well in higher temps (ideally with high humidity; which is why it's doing so very poorly in both Hawaii and Singapore, despite entirely different approaches to dealing with the virus). Singapore gets up to 32-33 degrees this time of year and Hawaii is at 25, which is enough. There is overwhelming evidence at this point that SARS-CoV-2 is slowed by temperatures over ~18 degrees. China and the US have both seen the same thing. Prior studies on influenza indicate that its transmission rate plunges over roughly 17-18 degrees. Which also matches what the MIT study (below) found looking at the infection data for this virus. There are two other recent studies mentioned below, that reach a similar conclusion. Here's China seeing the same thing: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Here's the US: "The results: In the most recent analysis, which used data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, two MIT post-docs in the civil engineering and cognitive science departments found that the maximum number of coronavirus transmissions has occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 and 13 °C during the outbreak. In contrast, countries with mean temperatures above 18 °C have seen fewer than 5% of total cases. This pattern also shows up within the US, where southern states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a slower growth rate than northern states like Washington, New York, and Colorado. California, which spans north and south, has a growth rate that falls in between." "Two other preprint papers have drawn similar conclusions. The first, posted on Monday by two researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of positive cases globally have thus far occurred at temperatures between -2 and 10 °C" https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread... Note: that publish date for the article is from March 19. The predicted results have not only continued to hold well globally, they have unfortunately proven to be a future forecast for what happened in NYC due to its climate.

bwb 7y ago
I am hopeful this all pans out, but there is nothing conclusive about this data yet from what the WHO/CDC have been saying. I just wanted to mention that because don't think summer weather is a miracle cure :)

bobsil1 7y ago

There’s a theory that the TB jab is protective. It’s being tested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-o...

m0zg 7y ago
If it is, then countries with BCG vaccination should see much lower fatality. Which, to first approximation, seems to hold, but it's too early to tell. FWIW both my wife and I have it. See map as to who else might: http://www.bcgatlas.org/ http://www.bcgatlas.org/ I've read India also gives hydroxychloroquine to their frontline medical staff as a prophylaxis, which could be helping as well. India makes a ton of pharmaceuticals, so at least they should be OK on the drugs side. Their healthcare is piss poor otherwise, however, so drugs are probably their only hope, with a population as high, and healthcare spending as low as they've got.
- 7952 7y ago
  In a few countries it was introduced in the 1950s which would suggest that the over 70s may not have recieved the jab. And interestingly Italy has never had widespread vaccination.
yread 7y ago
Yes, there is this https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v...

owaislone 7y ago

I'm sure there is but it's not apparent yet because of long incubation period and the negligible amount of testing compared to the population. 25 people had died of Covid-19 till yesterday. 10 have died so far today and the day is not even over yet. I'm sure it's going to explode very soon unfortunately.

rinka_singh 7y ago

Here's one possible answer why: https://scroll.in/pulse/957883/did-india-overreact-covid-19-outbreak-isnt-following-the-trajectory-of-europe-and-china-so-far https://scroll.in/pulse/957883/did-india-overreact-covid-19-... Having given this link, it can be proven to be (tragically) wrong...