4 ms·

I agree that 2-3% inflation is nothing to worry about. But what's happening now is not quite the same thing as in 2009. For the first time in a very long time

I agree that 2-3% inflation is nothing to worry about. But what's happening now is not quite the same thing as in 2009. For the first time in a very long time we actually have a shortage of supply. We didn't have that in 2009. But I think/hope it will be short lived, and depending on how we act now it could easily turn into a shortage of demand once again.

jjeaff 7y ago
Do we really have a shortage of supply? For what products? The only shortages I have seen are for toilet paper and a few random grocery store products that maniacs decide to stockpile next. (in my community, there is all the sudden a run on ice cream now that bread is back in stock).
- fauigerzigerk 7y ago
  We have a shortage of farm labour for instance, which may soon turn into a shortage of fresh produce and into massive food price inflation. We have a shortage of home delivery capacity. If stuff doesn't get manufactured for months, we will have a shortage of many other things as well. Obviously we have a lack of demand for other things at the same time. I don't think there is that much unreasonable stockpiling. People are no longer eating out. Kids are no longer eating at school. So people buy more at supermarkets. They also buy for a week, quite sensibly, to avoid making a trip to a crowded supermarket every day. Combine that with finely tuned just in time logistics and you get a bit of a crunch. There's simply a misalignment of capacity right now, but there could be a real shortage of some essentials soon.
  - CSSer 7y ago
    Where did the restaurants and the school get their food from? I know that means a great disruption, but I’m still not convinced that means a shortage.
    - nitrogen 7y ago
      Sysco and the like. It's probably a distribution rather than a supply issue.
      - sokoloff 7y ago
        Exactly. Typical container size in foodservice distribution is a #10 can, packed 6 to a case. Each #10 can is 3 quarts. Fairly few households are interested in buying canned tomatoes 18 quarts at a time.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  VR systems and Nintendo Switch systems are also out of supply, they were bought up quickly when the quarantine started and China hasn’t been making any new ones for a couple of months now.
- daxorid 7y ago
  Hoarding is a small aspect of current shortages. I'll pick one example at random: Gyms are closed, so go try to find a squat rack, a bar, and some bumper plates for a home gym. Or dumbbells. Or even some crappy resistance bands. You can't. Nobody is hoarding 45lb plates for future use, they're demanding them for use now. Expand this for every industry impacted by shutdown orders. It wouldn't take long to think of hundreds of examples of non-hoarding shortages. Inflation is coming. Shortages are the market telling you that price MUST increase to equalize demand. And it will.
- chelovek89 7y ago
  A personal example. Gym equipment: barbells, weight plates, squat racks, etc are either sold out or way overpriced right now because gyms are closed. I bought a barbell set the week before my gym closed, and now that I went to look to buy new weights for it Im looking at "out of stock until May"

jjeaff 7y ago

Do we really have a shortage of supply? For what products? The only shortages I have seen are for toilet paper and a few random grocery store products that maniacs decide to stockpile next. (in my community, there is all the sudden a run on ice cream now that bread is back in stock).

fauigerzigerk 7y ago
We have a shortage of farm labour for instance, which may soon turn into a shortage of fresh produce and into massive food price inflation. We have a shortage of home delivery capacity. If stuff doesn't get manufactured for months, we will have a shortage of many other things as well. Obviously we have a lack of demand for other things at the same time. I don't think there is that much unreasonable stockpiling. People are no longer eating out. Kids are no longer eating at school. So people buy more at supermarkets. They also buy for a week, quite sensibly, to avoid making a trip to a crowded supermarket every day. Combine that with finely tuned just in time logistics and you get a bit of a crunch. There's simply a misalignment of capacity right now, but there could be a real shortage of some essentials soon.
- CSSer 7y ago
  Where did the restaurants and the school get their food from? I know that means a great disruption, but I’m still not convinced that means a shortage.
  - nitrogen 7y ago
    Sysco and the like. It's probably a distribution rather than a supply issue.
    - sokoloff 7y ago
      Exactly. Typical container size in foodservice distribution is a #10 can, packed 6 to a case. Each #10 can is 3 quarts. Fairly few households are interested in buying canned tomatoes 18 quarts at a time.
seanmcdirmid 7y ago
VR systems and Nintendo Switch systems are also out of supply, they were bought up quickly when the quarantine started and China hasn’t been making any new ones for a couple of months now.
daxorid 7y ago
Hoarding is a small aspect of current shortages. I'll pick one example at random: Gyms are closed, so go try to find a squat rack, a bar, and some bumper plates for a home gym. Or dumbbells. Or even some crappy resistance bands. You can't. Nobody is hoarding 45lb plates for future use, they're demanding them for use now. Expand this for every industry impacted by shutdown orders. It wouldn't take long to think of hundreds of examples of non-hoarding shortages. Inflation is coming. Shortages are the market telling you that price MUST increase to equalize demand. And it will.
chelovek89 7y ago
A personal example. Gym equipment: barbells, weight plates, squat racks, etc are either sold out or way overpriced right now because gyms are closed. I bought a barbell set the week before my gym closed, and now that I went to look to buy new weights for it Im looking at "out of stock until May"