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Most important caveat from the link: > [T]hese calculations do not account for any potential effects of fiscal measures, such as payroll support measures for s

Most important caveat from the link: > [T]hese calculations do not account for any potential effects of fiscal measures, such as payroll support measures for small businesses A $2 trillion stimulus very likely means that the actual figures are significantly less than what this model calculates.

chasd00 7y ago
I'm really tired of stats of the very worst case but with a headline implying it's what experts are expecting.
- pulisse 7y ago
  The headline only exists in the HN submission. TFA is entitled "Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate."
sobellian 7y ago
In fairness the author also gave a massive error bar "between 10.5% and 40.6%." So whether or not the stimulus is sufficient to avert the worst depends on where we sit between "mild recession" and "social collapse."
- nostromo 7y ago
  10.5% unemployment isn't a mild recession. It's a touch worse than 2008.
  - sobellian 7y ago
    True, but I think there's more metrics to a recession than peak unemployment. It took years for unemployment to dip below 8% after 2008, but only time will tell what the recovery looks like here.