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Usage of Masks “Flattened” Growth of Coronavirus Cases in Czech Republic
- gus_massa 7y agoIs the data available somewhere? > Howard claimed that “one of the key reasons for the decrease in the growth of the cases is a massive country-wide community initiative to create and wear home-made masks.” What are the other measures they took?
- lousken 7y agoThe data is available e.g. on the offical czech ministry of health https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 (can be easily translated with google) And here is the list of measures https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/measures-adopted-by-the-czech-government-against-coronavirus-180545/ https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/measures-adop...
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- collinmanderson 7y agoJeremy Howard's list of sources is here: https://tiny.cc/maskswork https://tiny.cc/maskswork
- en-us 7y agoI will not be surprised if mask usage becomes normalized in Western cultures after this, just as happened in Asian cultures after SARS.
- nerdponx 7y agoNot in the USA. The government is still telling people masks don't do anything.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- kzrdude 7y agoThe idea will probably lodge itself in our minds, but in practice there are no masks to buy, so we can't even start getting used to it.
- en-us 7y agoWe could improvise them though. I know in Hong Kong they have asked people to improvise using layered paper towels and tissues because those are readily available nonwoven fabrics. It isn't as good as the real thing, but done at the population level I expect it would lower the reproductive value of the virus and thus help flatten the curve.
- dominotw 7y ago> improvise using layered paper towels and tissues because those are readily available nonwoven fabrics. sorry is there a youtube video for this. Just want to make sure i don't make a mistake.
- en-us 7y agoYes there is: https://www.consumer.org.hk/ws_en/news/specials/2020/mask-diy-tips.html https://www.consumer.org.hk/ws_en/news/specials/2020/mask-di...
- xorfish 7y agoExperts devise do-it-yourself face masks to help people battle coronavirus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNjpH5lBZ8w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNjpH5lBZ8w
- yellowstuff 7y agoI imagine that just like my grandparents who lived through the Depression hoarded ketchup packets despite being financially secure, as soon as N95 masks are freely available I will keep a stash handy for the rest of my life, regardless of whether I ever face another pandemic, or official organizations advise against it.
- drcode 7y agoI don't know, people in the US seem to be pretty stubborn. I think people feel that being asked to wear a mask is somehow "un-American"
- jerf 7y ago"People in the US" isn't a useful category for thought on this matter. There are subcultures where I find the idea that they will ever wear masks routinely risible. There are subcultures where I could easily see it becoming absolutely de rigueur with social consequences for non-compliance. You and I probably have different ideas about what those subcultures are, but for this post it would simply suffice to say that there would be different reactions.
- drcode 7y agoI tried to give away cloth masks (not medical masks) to people in my area and nobody wanted one, and I live in a very liberal, highly educated part of the country. I'm hoping this attitude can be changed, I'm just pointing out that there seem to be some uniquely American psychological issues associated with mask wearing that need to be taken into account.
- jerf 7y agoWell... this is why I said "you and I probably have different ideas about what those subcultures are". With my priors, "liberals" not wanting to wear masks doesn't surprise me at all. Consider watching something like https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_the_moral_roots_of_liberals_and_conservatives https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_the_moral_roots_of_... , and then ask yourself: Which groups would you expect to accept and even enforce mask wearing, and which will reject it?
- was8309 7y agoThanks for the link to the video. Wouldn't ultra conservatives wear masks because of 'Ingroup', 'Authority', 'Purity', and only when it becomes law? Wouldn't ultra liberals wear masks because of 'Harm', 'Fairness', as it becomes clear scientific consensus? Thanks
- champagneben 7y agoHow prevalent was mask wearing in Asian cultures before SARS?
- en-us 7y agoI read a paper on this last week but I can't find it at the moment. However I recall them polling people on mask usage, and pre-SARS it was single digits percentage, post-SARS it was 85-90%.
- lokedhs 7y agoDuring the pandemic, yes. Not so much after. I live in S.E. Asia and have been to a large number of countries in Asia, and I can't say I've seen extensive mask usage anywhere except for Japan. Of course, it's much more common than Europe or the US, but it's still in the single digit percentages. This was before the current pandemic of course. But eve today, in Singapore, I'd estimate 15% to 20%?
- dominotw 7y agoRight now people wearing masks are considered selfish people who are depriving medical staff of them. medical staff in usa are wearing trashbags for protection( even hilary clinton tweeted this picture).
- malandrew 7y agoStill not in Washington state. I'm routinely the only one wearing a simple surgical mask when I head to the grocery store, which I don't mind because people pro-actively avoid me because I guess they assume I'm infected instead of being precautious. Everyone should assume they are an asymptomatic carrier.
- henriquez 7y agoI thought the World Health Organization said that masks don’t work. Why would they have said that if the opposite is true?
- nerdponx 7y agoSeems like they would, based on their recent track record.
- tokamak-teapot 7y agoNot quite, but it's certainly been confusing advice, if you can call it advice at all: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/11/whos-confusing-guidance-masks-covid-19-epidemic/ https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/11/whos-confusing-guidance...
- addHocker 7y agoTaiwans CDC and South Korea recommend masks. That is good enough for me.
- mensetmanusman 7y agoIt was mostly an effort to prevent panic buying like what happened with toilet paper. There are not enough masks produced even in a year to solve this, so they. Need to focus on medical workers having access.
- drcode 7y agoYou left out the word "lied"
- nxc18 7y agoThere’s a big difference between a nuanced message and a lie. If you see The WHO statements as a lie, you lack the understanding of the situation needed to make a thoughtful decision, and it’s for the best that you were misled. People who read the news and get “masks don’t work” out of it should not be using masks until there are enough available for professionals who need them.
- mensetmanusman 7y agoThis could be tried if there were enough masks. China prevented western N95 manufacturers from exporting masks out of their China facilities in February, so they will get first dibs on attempting this strategy. One of the unforeseen risks of globalization.
- _ph_ 7y agoI think very basic face masks would be ok, as the idea is to limit people who are infected, from spreading the viruses so that other people get infected. The 2 m distance rule is about how far viruses are spread when speaking or coughing.
- tres 7y agoThe article states that they're using homemade masks -- even t-shirts wrapped around their face. It's not about filtering... there's something else happening here... I'd guess that the mask is a constant reminder to keep your hands off your face.
- drcode 7y agoIt's simple: Spitting virus phlegm at people while coughing = BAD
- ExtremisAndy 7y agoBased on my own personal experience, I have to wonder if you're not on to something here. I wear just one glove every time I go to the supermarket and my nurse friends have been quick to point out to me that gloves are completely unnecessary. But I do not wear them because I think they'll protect me. I wear them precisely because they are a reminder not to touch my face. It's a simple reminder to myself that: "oh yeah, things are different now... be extra careful, don't touch your face, keep a safe distance from other people, etc." I'd be interested in knowing how many other people think like this. Having said all this, due to the shortages, I should probably stop wearing gloves and maybe just draw a large X on my hand or something to serve as this reminder.
- megous 7y ago
- aaron695 7y agoThe evidence is not clear yet, it will take ~ two weeks from implementation. Graph - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_Czech_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... But you will also need lots of testing and contact tracing. All these should decrease R0 and allow society to function.
- _ph_ 7y agoEven the most basic face masks would have some obvious consequences: - preventing infected from spreading the virus via droplets - preventing touching mouth and nose with your hands For that to be effective, for a while anyone would need to wear a mask, as the virus is usually spread by people who don't feel sick yet. Wearing masks would add another barrier to spreading the virus, especially everywhere where you can't quite keep 2 meters of distance, e.g. shops, public transport and could be vital for reopening factories.
- seanmcdirmid 7y agoDepending on the mask, eg any N95 I’ve ever tried, you’ll touch your face a lot more to constantly readjust it because of skin irritation. Surgical masks are much more comfortable since they don’t form a seal.
- _ph_ 7y agoI think, if we are talking about "masks for everyone" it can only be surgical masks, which are relatively cheap and comfortable. Or homemade replacements made from cloth, which can be washed and reused. Some German clothing companies already have started producing cloth masks too.
- seanmcdirmid 7y agoYes, but the effectiveness goes way down. If we are talking about air pollution (why I had to wear them when I did), surgical masks are useless. I guess in the pandemic context, they prevent some moisture from your mouth from reaching other people.
- James_Henry 7y agoIt may be ideal to have the most at risk wear n95 masks (and ideally get them as much training on wearing them and only adjusting them with freshly cleaned hands) while the rest of the population wears surgical masks and makeshift masks of cloth or paper towels.
- neves 7y agoI can't recommend enough this video of Jeremy Howard (from Fast.ai fame): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI There's a lot of scientific evidence that masks are useful.
- boomboomsubban 7y agoThere were 560 cases the day they started the policy, and 2817 eleven days later. That's a "flattened" growth? It will be interesting to see the Czech Republic's data and attempt to isolate the benefit of the policy, but I don't see how one could draw a conclusion at this point.
- drclau 7y agoDetection is delayed. Many of those people may have got infected prior to the quarantine, or from family members during the quarantine. But I agree, it’ll take more time to see how effective the measure is.
- lousken 7y agoYou should also keep in mind, that we've more than doubled the testing since, so the amount of cases raised with that as well.
- eridan2 7y agoflattened growth because the number of new cases is not growing very fast; it does not mean they have no new cases...
- Symmetry 7y agoYou can't see the effects of an intervention stopping new coronavirus infections until you wait past the end of the incubation period of the virus. And if you're not testing very aggressively it'll take another week beyond that for mild illnesses to turn into the sort of thing that gets people to the hospital. Also, technically, if you go from an exponentially increasing problem to getting the same number of infections every day you've "flattened the growth" even though you haven't flattened the number cases.
- collinmanderson 7y agoSeems to me we all need to assume we're asymptotic carriers, and then follow WHO's (or CDC's) advice for sick people, which is to wear some sort of mask or bandana.
- seanmcdirmid 7y agoThat isn’t WHO or CDC advice. If you are sick, you should just not go out.
- collinmanderson 7y agohttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/st... CDC says if you "think you might have COVID-19", you should "wear a facemask" "to help protect other people in your home and community." "You may need to improvise a facemask using a scarf or bandana." Seems to me we should assume we "might have COVID-19" and then follow CDC's advice to wear a scarf or bandana to protect other people.
- seanmcdirmid 7y agoThen those are different advices for thinking you might be sick and being actually sick. If you are sick, don’t go out. If you just think you might be sick, then put some cloth in front of your face.
- James_Henry 7y agoNo, the CDC says, on the linked page: >If you are sick wear a facemask in the following situations, if available. >- If you are sick: You should wear a facemask, if available, when you are around other people (including before you enter a healthcare provider’s office). >- If you are caring for others: If the person who is sick is not able to wear a facemask (for example, because it causes trouble breathing), then as their caregiver, you should wear a facemask when in the same room with them. Visitors, other than caregivers, are not recommended. >Note: During a public health emergency, facemasks may be reserved for healthcare workers. You may need to improvise a facemask using a scarf or bandana.
- zerof1l 7y agoNo doubts about usefulness of masks, however its too early to call Czech Republic curve flat. Its anything but flat. Look at daily cases. There's not enough data points yet. Italian curve looks more promising. For last 11 days, there has been around 6,000 cases daily. Though, its likely from lack of testing.
- megous 7y agoHere's the official data: https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19 It shows various trends, numbers of tests, numbers of new positive people, etc. Looks like the latest datapoints (fewer new cases) coincides with less testing. But it's hard to interpret. It may be the weekend (very nice weather), or it may be that less people are asking to get tested because there are fewer serious cases. We'll see soon how it develops further.
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- g8oz 7y agoN95s are technically called Particulate Respirators. What the Czechs are pushing for mass adoption are surgical masks or any type of mouth covering even scarves. Less effective, but sufficient to flatten the curve. And you can make them at home if you have sewing skills.
- megous 7y agoAlso some random arguments for masks are here: https://aiki.info/masks/ https://aiki.info/masks/