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I think some people are just blessed with great genes and great health/immune system throughout their lives. There are stories of 100+ yos who smoke, who eat ty

I think some people are just blessed with great genes and great health/immune system throughout their lives. There are stories of 100+ yos who smoke, who eat typical comfort food everyday, who drink in moderation but consistently etc etc, whose lifestyles are what we basically understand as negative for your health but they are unaffected.

_red 7y ago
There could actually be a statistical case for people who have genes for longevity who drink, smoke, etc. I don't mean that 'smoking is good for you', but that those who are going to live long, will live long no matter what their personal habits are. Thus when you look at really old people, those that drink / smoke are over-represented. They are statistical outliers of course...
- adventured 7y ago
  That's overwhelmingly the case. Obviously there are exceptions (which is what the critics will target to try to counter the premise, they'll shoot at the 1% negative case outliers among those with genetics for long life). George Burns is the classic example - 10-15 cigars per day for 70 years, lived to 100. It doesn't make you invulnerable of course, it shifts likelihoods strongly in your favor versus the average person. And you can still do incredibly stupid things to shorten your life, it won't prevent that. If the general public understood how set in barely flexible goo (you can only move it a bit) their health outcomes are at birth, it would encourage even worse diet and exercise behaviors due to an increased belief in futility. If you have the genetics to live to 75, you're not making it to 112 [1] no matter what you do. The news media has a thing they like to do with super old people: ask them what their magic secret is, and the answers are frequently wildly different; that's because it's mostly not what they did, but what they are made of, that produced the outcome (which isn't to say that living a healthier lifestyle, or having some good luck during life, won't help the long-lived get to 106 instead of 97; they too can slightly move the needle around in their box). [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-52063482 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-52063482
  - felipemnoa 7y ago
    A lot of it has to do with luck. It is like trying to figure out the secret of a person that won the lotto. Out of billions, statistically speaking, some people will make it past 100. Like a coin that lands on head 5 times on a road. Nothing special about the coin. It just happens sometimes.
steveeq1 7y ago
Survivorship bias.
- blondin 7y ago
  how so?
  - quaquaqua1 7y ago
    For every 1 person who lives an unhealthy lifestyle and lives a long time, there are untold millions who dont
    - asjw 7y ago
      Still in some countries many more get old than others And I'm talking about countries with the same level of wealth (more or less) Japan has 2.5 times more centenaries as a percentage of the population than US
    - blondin 7y ago
      well, you are right and i get what you are saying. but in the current situation most people in that age range are dying. he survived. isn't it worth talking about or giving it a thought?
- asjw 7y ago
  If we are measuring survival, surviving is not a bias, it's a data point Without taking into account genes can you explain why Japan has 54 centenaries every 100k people, France 34, Italy 33 and US only 22?
  - bentcorner 7y ago
    Supercentenarians and the oldest-old are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625547 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625547

_red 7y ago

There could actually be a statistical case for people who have genes for longevity who drink, smoke, etc. I don't mean that 'smoking is good for you', but that those who are going to live long, will live long no matter what their personal habits are. Thus when you look at really old people, those that drink / smoke are over-represented. They are statistical outliers of course...

adventured 7y ago
That's overwhelmingly the case. Obviously there are exceptions (which is what the critics will target to try to counter the premise, they'll shoot at the 1% negative case outliers among those with genetics for long life). George Burns is the classic example - 10-15 cigars per day for 70 years, lived to 100. It doesn't make you invulnerable of course, it shifts likelihoods strongly in your favor versus the average person. And you can still do incredibly stupid things to shorten your life, it won't prevent that. If the general public understood how set in barely flexible goo (you can only move it a bit) their health outcomes are at birth, it would encourage even worse diet and exercise behaviors due to an increased belief in futility. If you have the genetics to live to 75, you're not making it to 112 [1] no matter what you do. The news media has a thing they like to do with super old people: ask them what their magic secret is, and the answers are frequently wildly different; that's because it's mostly not what they did, but what they are made of, that produced the outcome (which isn't to say that living a healthier lifestyle, or having some good luck during life, won't help the long-lived get to 106 instead of 97; they too can slightly move the needle around in their box). [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-52063482 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-52063482
- felipemnoa 7y ago
  A lot of it has to do with luck. It is like trying to figure out the secret of a person that won the lotto. Out of billions, statistically speaking, some people will make it past 100. Like a coin that lands on head 5 times on a road. Nothing special about the coin. It just happens sometimes.

steveeq1 7y ago

Survivorship bias.

blondin 7y ago
how so?
- quaquaqua1 7y ago
  For every 1 person who lives an unhealthy lifestyle and lives a long time, there are untold millions who dont
  - asjw 7y ago
    Still in some countries many more get old than others And I'm talking about countries with the same level of wealth (more or less) Japan has 2.5 times more centenaries as a percentage of the population than US
  - blondin 7y ago
    well, you are right and i get what you are saying. but in the current situation most people in that age range are dying. he survived. isn't it worth talking about or giving it a thought?
asjw 7y ago
If we are measuring survival, surviving is not a bias, it's a data point Without taking into account genes can you explain why Japan has 54 centenaries every 100k people, France 34, Italy 33 and US only 22?
- bentcorner 7y ago
  Supercentenarians and the oldest-old are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1 HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625547 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625547