5 ms·

"The question in a lot of ways is how many exponential doublings do we have to have before this situation switches in peoples' minds from a peace-time inconveni

"The question in a lot of ways is how many exponential doublings do we have to have before this situation switches in peoples' minds from a peace-time inconvenience to essentially real war." The millions of people who would die in a worst-case scenario are mainly demographics that society is already used to neglecting: the elderly, the terminally ill, those with lifelong chronic illnesses where any infection could be a killer, etc. Therefore, I would expect this to continue to be considered more of a peacetime inconvenience than a real war. A frequent response to this is, "But they could overwhelm the healthcare system so you or me couldn't be treated for our needs!" Well, if the bulk of the population is left inconvenienced and unemployed for too long, I can imagine some ugly scenarios where the population demands, broadly speaking, that those demographics simply be triaged out of treatment so that they don't overwhelm the healthcare system for everyone else. This is said to be already happening in Italy to a degree.

empath75 7y ago
That’s not true. Once you start getting into the tens of millions of deaths worldwide, that’s going to include a lot of young people and medical staff and people who will die of other treatable diseases or injuries because half of the doctors in the country are sick or otherwise occupied.
joe_the_user 7y ago
Well, if the bulk of the population is left inconvenienced and unemployed for too long, I can imagine some ugly scenarios where the population demands, broadly speaking, that those demographics simply be triaged out of treatment so that they don't overwhelm the healthcare system for everyone else. People imagining such triaging seem to think that a willingness to be appalling brutal means such brutality could be achieved with limited costs. Italy's situation is far from the worst-case scenario. It's death rate is not that much higher than a seasonal flu, it's just the death-process that is far more messy. Which is to say, let the infection rate get high enough and you'll have hospitals crowded with the young and healthy even if carry the old directly to the morgue. Moreover, authorities shouting "all clear" in the midst of this dreck isn't going just summon a phalanx of consumers ready to go to restaurants, death chance or not. In short, just because you're evil doesn't mean you aren't stupid too.
- greedo 7y ago
  The death rate is in no ways comparable to the seasonal flu. It's quite higher: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-compared-to-other-diseases https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-of...
  - joe_the_user 7y ago
    Indeed, If you read my parent post in context, I hope it's clear that I mean currently in Italy, people are not dying at a rate higher than the seasonal flu BUT this has a big potential change if the infection rate were to shoot up (we know this is prevented by extreme quarantine measures, enforced by the army).
    - greedo 7y ago
      Your point still isn't clear or accurate. The worldwide CFR is over 4%. In Italy, it's currently at over 11%. The flu is nowhere near that level of risk. It's normally around 0.1% depending on demographic. Are you saying that the seasonal flu in Italy normally kills 11% of those who become infected? If that's the case, the facts don't bear that out.
      - zwily 7y ago
        But the CFR is mostly just a function of how many people get tested, no? And Italy seems to only be testing at hospitalization.
        greedo 7y ago
        And how does Italy test the flu? In the US, there's minimal flu testing and most of the metrics are based around surveys.
        SkyPuncher 7y ago
        I'm not disagreeing with you. However, at this point, some of the flu estimates are actually inferred/modeled by the CDC. The flu is a well-enough study disease that they're able to, relatively accurately, model population statistics based on a sub-set of tested patients.
deleted 7y ago
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jacquesm 7y ago
The switch to war footing is already happening in the places hardest hit, for others it may be days or weeks away.

empath75 7y ago

That’s not true. Once you start getting into the tens of millions of deaths worldwide, that’s going to include a lot of young people and medical staff and people who will die of other treatable diseases or injuries because half of the doctors in the country are sick or otherwise occupied.

joe_the_user 7y ago

Well, if the bulk of the population is left inconvenienced and unemployed for too long, I can imagine some ugly scenarios where the population demands, broadly speaking, that those demographics simply be triaged out of treatment so that they don't overwhelm the healthcare system for everyone else. People imagining such triaging seem to think that a willingness to be appalling brutal means such brutality could be achieved with limited costs. Italy's situation is far from the worst-case scenario. It's death rate is not that much higher than a seasonal flu, it's just the death-process that is far more messy. Which is to say, let the infection rate get high enough and you'll have hospitals crowded with the young and healthy even if carry the old directly to the morgue. Moreover, authorities shouting "all clear" in the midst of this dreck isn't going just summon a phalanx of consumers ready to go to restaurants, death chance or not. In short, just because you're evil doesn't mean you aren't stupid too.

greedo 7y ago
The death rate is in no ways comparable to the seasonal flu. It's quite higher: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-compared-to-other-diseases https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#case-fatality-rate-of...
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  Indeed, If you read my parent post in context, I hope it's clear that I mean currently in Italy, people are not dying at a rate higher than the seasonal flu BUT this has a big potential change if the infection rate were to shoot up (we know this is prevented by extreme quarantine measures, enforced by the army).
  - greedo 7y ago
    Your point still isn't clear or accurate. The worldwide CFR is over 4%. In Italy, it's currently at over 11%. The flu is nowhere near that level of risk. It's normally around 0.1% depending on demographic. Are you saying that the seasonal flu in Italy normally kills 11% of those who become infected? If that's the case, the facts don't bear that out.
    - zwily 7y ago
      But the CFR is mostly just a function of how many people get tested, no? And Italy seems to only be testing at hospitalization.
      - greedo 7y ago
        And how does Italy test the flu? In the US, there's minimal flu testing and most of the metrics are based around surveys.
        SkyPuncher 7y ago
        I'm not disagreeing with you. However, at this point, some of the flu estimates are actually inferred/modeled by the CDC. The flu is a well-enough study disease that they're able to, relatively accurately, model population statistics based on a sub-set of tested patients.

deleted 7y ago

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jacquesm 7y ago

The switch to war footing is already happening in the places hardest hit, for others it may be days or weeks away.